Kazakhstan middle-game

So, on March 19, 2019, President of Kazakhstan N. Nazarbayev announced publicly his resignation. Prior to this, on February 21, President dismissed the Cabinet of Ministers to thus testify to the fact that the country has entered a stage of acute political and economic crisis, as is confirmed by a growth of population"s discontent. Many analysts hastily stated that N. Nazarbayev"s resignation meant an end of a whole historical epoch and that great changes would take place both in political system and public life of the country. In particular, the contributor to turmoil, in his televised address to the nation, declared as follows:

"Dear Kazakhstan citizens, compatriots, and Nur Otan Party members! First of all, let"s speak about achievements. Our three-pronged goal was to build a market-based economy and dismantle the totalitarian ideological system, and modernization of all public institutions. As a result, we managed to get a 15-times increase of the economy and a 9-times increase of people"s incomes (in dollar terms) that enabled us to get almost a tenfold reduction of poverty level.

It should be noted that Kazakhstan has turned from agrarian economy to the industrial one. The process of the country"s industrialization and urbanization is underway. Leading world investors has joined the country"s raw-material sector. The country succeeded in implementing the complex projects in oil and gas sector. A fund for Kazakhstan generations to come has been formed at the expense of raw resources. As a result, the country has joined the global economy to attract investments and develop trade with nearly every country of the world.

Also, a new infrastructure skeleton of the country has been built. All regions of the country are interlinked by motorways and railways. In turn, air routes make it possible to discover new opportunities for the country to develop.

Kazakhstan has become a large state not only territorially. At present, the population is above 18 million to reach 20 million in the nearest future.

The country is ranked among world"s top 50 developed countries. A development program for a period up to 2050 has been drafted. The goal is to join the number of world"s top 30 developed countries. First ever in our history, we built our capital - Astana - that is a personification of all our achievements and victories."

Then he touches upon his promotee:

"The question of continuity of power in Kazakhstan has been addressed on a constitutional basis. In case of early termination of office of acting President, his powers shall go to Chairman of Senate till the end of midterm election. Then, a new President shall be elected. Kasym-Zhomart Kemelovich Tokayev was the foreign minister in years of formation of the country"s foreign policy; worked as Vice-Premier and Prime Minister, and Chairman of the Senate. He is well aware of the country and its economy and policy. Also, he worked as UN Deputy Secretary General."

Experts believe that Tokayev (b. 1953) is a liberal-minded politician with certain effects and authority on the international arena, and highly proficient in the country"s economy. Also, they note that Tokayev is a right-minded person, possibly, the most reasonable, honest and smart politician in Kazakhstan.

Next come a few crumbs of comforts:

"According to our laws, I am vested with a status of the First President-Elbasy (Leader of the Nation). I remain the chairman of the Security Council with high powers. Besides, I"m the chairman of the Nur Otan Party and a member of the Constitutional Council. In other words, I am with you. Worries of the country and nation are mine as well."

Finally, parting words:

"I"d like to address the younger generation: save independent Kazakhstan, our common homeland. Save friendship and unity of our people, mutual trust and respect for the culture and traditions of the country"s every citizen. Citizens of future Kazakhstan are a society of highly educated and free people speaking three languages. They are the citizens of the world. They travel all over the world. They are open for new knowledge. They are patriots of their own country. The future Kazakhstan is a society of universal labor. This is a state with a developed economy meant to meet all human needs; with best education and healthcare. This is a state where peace and tranquility rule; where all citizens are free and equal and the power is fair, and the rule of law is ensured. If we are strong, we are reckoned with. If we hope for a miracle or rest on others, we are sure to lose all we"ve achieved."

Even an inattentive reader easily notices that President, preserving the full authority, sheds all responsibility for the country"s economic development simultaneously obtaining titles and awards that he finds inconvenient to be rewarded with (Altyn Zhuldyz- Golden Star), title Khalyk Kaharmany (National Hero), order Golden Eagle (Altyn Kyran), title Hero of Labor of Kazakhstan (Kazakstannyn Enbek Eri), appointment to position of an honorary Senator, titling central streets of all regional towns with Nazarbayev"s name; and erection of monument in his honor in Astana with latter"s subsequent renaming "Nursultan". All above is in line with the first decree by the new President of Kazakhstan-Tokayev.

Nazarbayev"s indisputable services have to be taken into account: Kazakhstan is the only CIS state having strict borders removing any perspective claims and reasons for a conflict. Indeed, Nazarbayev is an architect of Kazakhstan even despite all his failures in policy and economy. He did raise the authority of Kazakhstan on international arena by establishing friendly relations with all leading countries worldwide.

However, the country has faced a system crisis, which requires implementing long-term economic and political reforms. Thus, according to the 2017 constitutional amendments, powers of President were re-distributed in favor of Government. The recent changes in the Constitution vested the Security Council of Kazakhstan with powers exceeding those of all three branches of Government. At the time, analysts believed that the Acting President, after having taken life office of the Security Council, may delegate presidential powers to a go-to guy and continue ruling single-handedly.

Thus, reports on Nazarbayev"s serious disease are not unreasonable; however, they are not a proper cause of his resignation. Note that Nazarbayev has repeatedly amended the Constitution with changes consolidating his personal rule. The most significant one was the Law on the First President that put Nazarbayev above the Constitution. Under this Law, he is relieved from any criminal responsibility except for high treason, and entitled to run for office time and time again.

Account has also to be taken on the issue of successor where Nazarbayev meant but failed to put forward a candidature of one of his closest relatives, specifically, his elder daughter - Dariga Nazarbayeva. However, Moscow staked on more loyal Tokayev. Yet, one of the first decrees of the newly elected President dealt with D. Nazarbayeva"s appointment as Chairperson of the Senate, a high road to the perspective position of President of Kazakhstan.

Thus, N. Nazarbayev began structuring the architecture of future Kazakhstan where he is still instrumental, if not absolute, role. In some analysts" opinion, the latest steps of Nazarbayev are an attempt to copy the Iranian model of power with its secular president and spiritual leader with great authorities and opportunities. Supposedly, this view is not quite true, since Nazarbayev may be demonized except for political plagiarism. This is his own system to be used in the transition period where he will be forced to think of his to-be successor. In the meanwhile, thoughts of this sort are unlikely to concern the former President, who is busy with innovations aimed at strengthening his personal rule.

Triumphant will be analysts alleging last year that Nazarbayev would resign as President preserving his leading position in the Security Council in-between sessions of the two houses of the Parliament on February 28 and Novruz when the population has long holidays. It may be supposed that even those sagacious predictors do not completely realize the essence of Nazarbayev"s game. They forget that political leaders of this scale, despite all love for their relatives, are doomed to loneliness and thus have to keep their thoughts and projects away from the public.

The world will remain astonished at unbelievable moves of Nazarbayev"s middle-game before the first President of Kazakhstan commences a genuine end-game. The probability remains that it is the end-game that will continue without his involvement. That was the case with his counterparts from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.