On «identity crisis» in the West

Mounting a conference featuring tens of states and governments, ministers and experts, its chairman, German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger acknowledged West’s «identity crisis».  Note that this fact has repeatedly been stated at the Munich conference based as a forum of NATO countries for Europe and the USA alliance support. 

Nowadays the issue hit the headlines in terms of the new US foreign policy and Britain’s exit from the EU.

It should be noted that the severing of the unity in the West was centered around by Federal President of Germany, Frank Walter Steinmeier. He took up his speech as stating that the world has changed to vary from 2014, before Crimea annexation. «Not only did Russia annex Crimea without reference to the international law but again applied military force and adjusted boundaries on the European continent» said Steinmeier. He emphasized that actions of that nature led to uncertainties and lack of security in political affairs.

It should be remembered that the German President declared that the European Union needs a new Russian policy but not limited to «condemning statements and sanctions». He pointed out that «debates over perspective relations with Russia cannot be held without/at the expense of countries and peoples of Central Europe».

However, President openly criticized not only Russia but the United States and China as well. He charged these countries with national egoism that leads «to the growth of mistrust, expansion of armaments and lack of security».

In his words, a motto of the US Administration is a thesis that every country «should set its own interests above foreign interests». «An impression is that everybody thinks of himself and interests of all are taken into account», Steinmeier noted.

According to the head of the German state, China as an important member of international institutions «recognizes the international law provided it is not contrary to its own interests» which manifests in this country’s actions «against minorities» and hostile acts against neighbors in South-Chinese Sea.

Particular emphasis needs to be placed on the fact that these actions are prejudicial to our interests: the matter is that provision of security at the expense of others leads to the «growth of mistrust, rise in armaments and lack of security», he warned.

As for Germany, after the termination of «cold war» the country imagined, in Steinmeier’s view, that «the world is revolving around Europe». At present, Europe is set to be not only more pragmatic but more initiative as well «to prevent conflicts on the skirts of our alliance, east- and south-wards», he meant, not least of all, Ukraine.

It should be noted that in every possible way  Russia impedes the implementation of the Eastern Partnership project of the European Union, aimed at developing the EU’s integration ties with six countries of the former USSR: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine; and providing for the conclusion of future bilateral agreements between the EU and partner countries about the association, which should serve as an important step towards their further integration into the European socio-economic and political space.

Moscow believes that the Eastern Partnership defies Russian interests in the region, as it carries anti-Russian geopolitical ambitions. Since the most prior components of this initiative are its energy “component” (creation of alternative ways of energy supply to Europe alternative to Russia), the final disintegration of the post-Soviet space and the withdrawal of the CIS country from the influence of Russia.

The Kremlin’s official position on the Eastern Partnership was formulated by Russia's Permanent Representative to the EU Vladimir Chizhov:

We are opposed to these CIS countries facing an artificial dilemma: either forward, into a brighter future with the European Union, or backward - with Russia. The  fact that there were such signs at the initial stage of the Eastern Partnership is a fact.

In order to prevent the post-Soviet countries from drifting towards Europe, Russia provoked:

- The Transnistrian conflict (Moldavian-Transnistrian conflict) - the conflict between Moldova and the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldavian Republic;

- Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetian conflicts, an attack on Georgia.

- irredentism on the territory of Ukraine (in the Crimea and southeastern regions of the country), as well as a hybrid war unleashed, which led to the rejection of the Crimea and the proclamation, seeking to reunite with Russia, Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.

It should also be noted that Russia also indirectly supports the status quo in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, preventing its resolution. Thus, Moscow keeps Baku and Yerevan in its own orbit, preventing them from moving towards Europe.

It is obvious that the panel debate “New Development in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict” with the participation of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, which took place during the conference, was precisely organized by the German side in order to bring the conflicting parties closer to its solution.

By the way, it transpired that not all share alarmist sentiments of Ischinger and Steinmeier. Believed to be successful representatives of the young generation of western leaders, Canadian Premier Justin Trudeau and German Chancellor Sebastian Kurz declared that there is nothing to worry about West’s crisis.

Russia disappointed, yet, ready to wait

Russia to Munich was represented by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. His speech stressed the necessity of returning to the concept of «common European home» and criticized Europe for «unseized opportunities». As a matter of fact, it was an offer to forget the Ukrainian conflict and get down to the economic rapprochement.

It has to be kept in mind two deputies of Lavrov took part in the debates of control over nuclear arms and resolution of the situation in Syria. Both discussions went to show that positions of Russia and the United States are different, so joint actions are out of the question. Official Moscow made it plain that Russia has taken a note of West’s position but is not going to change its own stand on the issue and ready to wait.

Sanctions and strategic dialogue 

President of France, Emmanuel Macron recommended Europe to hang on sanctions until Moscow changes its behavior. However, he added that in the long term it was essential to improve relations with Russia.

It should be remembered that the realistic approach is that «we cannot give up our principles about frozen conflicts; however, we shall resume a strategic dialogue that takes some time», noted the head of the French state.

As for the conflict resolution in the east of Ukraine, he added that it’d be impossible without Russia’s participation.

Zelenskiy repeated Poroshenko’s thesis

In his statement Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy called for realization of peace in Donbas, complex talks with Russia and his intention to hold local elections in some regions of Donetsk and Lugansk provinces in terms of ceasefire and compliance with Ukrainian laws. Also, he called the United States to promote Crimea debates with Russia.

Worthy of note is the fact that Zelenskiy tried in all possible way to disengage from former President Vladimir Poroshenko; yet, he repeated Poroshenko’s thesis that Ukraine defends not only itself but Europe as well.

«This is not a war in Ukraine; this is a war in Europe», he said.

Zelenskiy paid attention to the fact that a report of the Munich Security Conference mentions Ukraine just eight times while in the forecast of potential hotbeds the country ranked from 9 to 10. «All came down», - lamented the Ukrainian President.

It must be borne in mind that a high pointing in Zelenskiy’ statement was his reference to Russia’s violation of the Budapest memorandum of 1994 that secured Ukraine’s territorial integrity in exchange for nuclear disarmament. «Regretfully, strong army, nuclear arms and the NATO can protect the country, for documents provide no security», he noted as saying that the Ukrainian experience urges him to mistrust any documents, he called other countries to develop the same attitude.

Reports of NATO death are greatly exaggerated

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo categorically denied any criticism to the US Administration and threat to the NATO dissolution as referred to by German President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. He described as fears as «greatly exaggerated» as saying that the West’s influence would go down, so he called US allies in Europe to fight  jointly «against aggressive actions of China, Russia and Iran».

It has to be kept in mind that the US Secretary of State called Chinese ICT – companies as «Trojan horses» (this refers to the creation of Huawei network 5G in Europe which, in view of Washington experts, is likely to spell the death on exchange of intelligence information between the USA and European NATO allies), condemned Iran «for terror campaigns» in the Near East. He mentioned Russia’s growing threat to the economy and security in Europe due to gas deliveries within the framework of «Northern stream-2» project.

Account has to be taken of the fact that Pompeo stressed US preparedness to allocate $ 1 billion to the countries of the Central and Eastern Europe for implementation of energy projects and thus promote the independence of these countries from Russian energy resources. All these are meant «to protect freedom and democracy in the world», inferred the head of the US Secretary of State.

Summary

It will suffice to mention that the Munich conference starkly illustrated that the old order has collapsed and the new one comes into being in terms of growing rivalry between the USA, China and Russia.

In so doing, we deal with a rivalry accompanied by certain vacuum of leadership to what is commonly referred to as the liberal international order».

As in the previous years, main topics are as follows: aggravation of relations between the West and Russia; a new US foreign policy led by Donald Trump, including the US and North Korea conflict and Europe’s place in the process.

It transpired that the European Union is ill-prepared to the new era of rivalry between great powers. The EU is making feeble attempts toward «decoupling» with the United States, for example, debates are underway to create the «European army». In so doing, Europe is still in need of US aid and protection.

The forum’s takeaway is that the period after termination of cold war and related optimism has come to an end, so the world is set up for «the period of long instability and uncertainty».