Particularities of V. Putin’s message to Federal Assembly- 2021

External momentum to the President’s message proved to be a growing animosity in the Russian-Ukrainian relations which failed to be normalized even after J. Biden’s call to V. Putin. Note that protests are being held in Russia in support of А. Navalny who is currently engaged in «war of demands» by means of hunger strike at the place of confinement. Note that the message said nothing about Donbas, Ukraine, or Navalny …

On the eve of the message, a poll was held among residents of Novosibirsk to have shown that Russians hoped that mask regime would be lifted; a new payment worth 10, 000 rubles; monthly unemployment benefits. Note that social policy and population protection benefits are as follows: by July 1 the government is meant to prepare systems of support for families with school-aged children – they will get one-time payment worth of 10, 000 per a child. It was suggested to support broken families: 5650 rubles will be given to children aged 8 to 16 years old; and 6350 rubles a month to pregnant women. It was also suggested to pay children under 7 hospital costs at full scale. An additional aid for regions and a new scheme of financing subjects of the federation is provided. «Under a high level of commercial indebtedness of regions (in  excess of 25% of income), it will be substituted for budget credits». It was suggested to form a presidential fund of cultural initiatives for support of education.

The President stressed that the pandemic hit welfare of Russians causing price growth. He offered some measures aimed at raising real incomes of citizens. Putin confessed that the pandemic led to the growth of death rate in Russia. «We ran into the pandemic when consequences of demographic collisions of the 1940-1990 coincided. We understand that today the situation in demography is extraordinary», Putin stressed the necessity of raising average life expectancy by 2030 up to 78 years old. However, nothing was said about forthcoming expulsion of 1 million migrant workers from Russia. When adjusted for the fact that the year 2021 was announced in Russia as the year of science and technologies, Putin promised to build 1,300 new schools, allocate 24 billion rubles for renovation of culture centers and museums in the countryside, 45, 000 state-funded openings. President emphasized the need for gasification of all households as saying that «citizens should not pay for gas».

Secretary of the general council of «Yedinaya Rossiya» Party Andrew Turchak stated that the message would become a basis of election agenda of «Yedinaya Rossiya». Elections to the Duma will be held in September 2021; however, Putin did not comment this important political event.

From 20 to 24 April Russia banned any flights above a part of Crimea and the Black sea. The Ministry of Defense informed about a ban for foreign vessels to sail in three regions of the Black sea from April 24 to October 31, 2021 г.

Also, joint-force exercises of armed forces of Russia have started on training area Opuk in the Crimea on April 22 with the participation of more than 10, 000 servicemen, 1,200 weapon units of Black sea navy, Caspian fleet and airborne troops, above 40 combat vessels and 20 logistics vessels. Maneuvers practiced missile blows and countermeasures, unmanned air and missile operations, struggle against them by means of air and ship-borne antimissile defense. Upon completion of the exercises, Defense Minister Shoigu announced about troops’ withdrawal from southern and western military districts to places of their permanent deployment. Starting from April 23, withdrawal of troops is set to be over by May 1, and this fact is likely to have its effect on tensions in the region.

In the meanwhile , in a part of his message dealing with security and foreign policy issues Putin mainstreamed red lines of Kremlin in terms of incessant «unfriendly acts of the West against Russia. When describing the current situation, Putin referred to British writer R. Kipling with his literary identities from immortal «The Jungle Book» – tiger Sherhan  (in fact, Shir-khan, top rival of Mowgli) and plain people around him – Tabaki. Taking an option on the British writer, Putin possibly shared Kipling’s aphorism: «Oh, East is East, and West is West and never the twain shall meet»?!

At any rate, Russia pursues its own interests, and «instigators of any provocations against interests of Russia will someday be sorry for what they have done». Moscow «will independently define a red line in relations between Russia and other countries, so a response will be asymmetrical, prompt and tough». As viewed by experts, asymmetry provides for unpredictability, promptness is opposed to sluggishness of democracies where any decisions have to be discussed ; toughness is a specific trait whereby Putin is minded to act. (April 22, Le Temps.Emmanuel Grinszpan, «Red line» of Vladimir Putin).

In April, Czechia announced about expulsion of 18 Russian diplomats charging Moscow with explosion of ammunition in Vrbetits in 2014. In reply the Russian Foreign Ministry declared 20 Czech diplomats as persona non grata. Prior to that the Russian Foreign Ministry recommended to expel a Ukrainian consul after his detention by the FSB after his was detained with secret materials. In turn, Ukraine expelled a senior Russian diplomat from Kiev. Besides, a Russian Ambassador to the United States was recalled to Russia in March for consultations. Quite recently, the Russian Foreign Ministry actively recommended a US Ambassador to leave the country. In a word, there is a mass diplomatic war.

Also, the latest developments in Belarus have been regarded as «coup d’état attempt» aimed at political murder which goes beyond any limits». Putin compared the situation in Belarus with that in Ukraine on the eve of the revolution- 2014 without any proof of coup d’état and scheduled murder of Lukashenko.

It should be added that the message of the Russian President on April 21 gave the impression of understatement: «nothing new in principle», «as a whole, lengthy speech» and yet, a little bit of breathing together with strict and unconcealed threats».

Gerhart Mangott opines that «red line» for Putin are attempts of the West to draw nearer the former Soviet Republics that Moscow regards as spheres of its influence, including Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and up to the Central Asia. In his opinion, in his message Putin has reaffirmed his commitment to «aggressive foreign policy that started with a war in Georgia in 2008».

Grand total of the message is as follows: Russia is solicitous to secure itself from the rest of the world. For this to happen, Russia has first-rate armament; it does not hold negotiations under pressures; sanctions violate the international law but Russia is sure to rebuff pressures. 

Here, a question arises: what’s more important for the authorities: autumn elections to the Duma or attempts to get out of international isolation?

From all appearances, the far-reaching attack against followers of Aleksey Navalny is under preparation: a court decision on proclamation of «Anti-Corruption Foundation» and its regional political headquarters as extremist organizations, i. e. clearance of Russia’s political expanse. In this connection, experts point out Putin is  about to make decisions on transition to a new , severer phase of his presidency.

At the same time Putin is unwilling to let tensions between Russia and the West going beyond control.

While Europe and the United States tried to estimate scale and purposes of Russian troops’ buildup along Ukrainian borders later March, Chief of the General Staff of Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Gen. Valery Gerasimov had a telephone conversation with his American counterpart, Gen. Mark Milli. On Monday, April 19, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Nikolay Patrushev discussed the possibility of the Summit of Presidents with Biden’s advisor for national security, Jake Sullivan. Kremlin declared that Putin would discuss climate change with Biden during an online-meeting on Thursday April 22. This is explained as being due to Putin’s aspiration to bring Russia back into the ranks of great powers.

It should ne added that Putin has always been notable for his centrist position in the ruling political elite.  This preference is accounted for not only famous political formula «divide and rule» but other factors as well. Experienced politician Putin is alive to the importance of the fact that it is easier to preserve what you have than trying to create something new which is more dangerous. Uncertainty, obscurity and suddenness in Putin’s policy means that he prefers to avoid single-eyed logic in his intentions and decisions.

The context identified above is meant to analyze the message of the Russian President to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on April 21, 2021. While we are on the subject, future «uncertainty» and «suddenness» are hardly surprising.

Ali Abasov