Preconditions for the peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia

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-If to believe the reports of the Armenian press, can we expect that the initial basis of some kind of peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be laid in Kazan?

-The question of signing a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan actually arose immediately after the dissemination of information about the November 10 declaration. Since then, discussions on a peace treaty have been under way. The format of the statement signed on November 10 is a declaration. This was the only possible form of the document, which at that time did not need to be ratified by parliaments. This allowed Russia to act very flexibly during that period, as well as to make a certain decision without resorting to consultations of many people, given the resistance against Pashinyan within Armenia. Therefore, the document signed at that time was called a declaration. In fact, it was an agreement.

One might say that all the main points of the peace treaty are reflected. And now there should be a more detailed document. Since the November 10th document was a quickly prepared, many details were recalled later. Now there is a need to develop a more detailed document so that it is widely discussed and adopted in parliaments and society.

Of course, in the course of this process more resources will be spent, where the participation of civil society and all interested groups is essential. In this case, the signing of this document will take a long time. That is, it is possible that the first steps in this direction will be taken in Kazan. Because, as I said, signing the final document is a long process.

Some details will not be disclosed, since such a sensitive document could create an additional political burden for Pashinyan on the eve of the elections in Armenia. But we can expect that there will be a number of statements in Kazan on this issue. Because Russia is currently in a tense situation. Putin needs a definite success story. Especially in the context of the Eurasian Economic Union.

Currently, Putin's rating is rapidly falling in connection with Crimea. Putin and the forces in power in Russia are looking for a new source of ratings. Therefore, some diplomatic success of some countries within the Eurasian Economic Union will be attributed to Putin. And in this context, the visit of President of Belarus Lukashenko to Azerbaijan, his long formal and informal meetings with the President of Azerbaijan indicate that many issues were thoroughly discussed there. These questions will of course appear in Kazan. In short, certain statements may be made in Kazan, but the preparation of a peace document will take a long time. The main reason here is that there is an electoral period in Armenia now, and these issues should be treated delicately. Now Armenia will try to resolve this issue as late as possible.

- Azerbaijan declares its readiness for a peace agreement at the highest level. However, no steps are being taken in this regard in Armenia. What is the reason? Could it be that a completely different picture is behind the curtain?

-There are a few points here. And most importantly, since there is a pre-election period in Armenia, official Yerevan tries to stay away from such delicate issues, and wants the Armenian soldiers in Azerbaijan to be returned. For this, it is ready to agree to certain negotiations. But the signing of any final documents for Armenia is currently not profitable. It will not be profitable even after the elections. Because Armenia is trying to avoid signing any document that could officially confirm its defeat, but it's too late. Because Armenia has already signed the statement on November 10. But after that Armenia will try, as far as possible, to put  sigh the main peace treaty, not to formalize its defeat, but to bypass certain issues by giving a verbal promise. But this strategy doesn't work anymore. As Pashinyan himself said, after the April 2016 events, when Serzh Sargsyan made certain promises, and during that period an armistice was reached. But they were not fulfilled. Therefore, there is no trust in the words of Pashinyan, the Armenian leaders.

As you remember, Pashinyan himself tried to deal diplomatically with Ilham Aliyev behind closed doors. This also failed. Therefore, it is impossible for Armenian leaders to take steps by accepting certain verbal, unsigned agreements. But sooner or later Armenia will be forced to formalize its defeat in one more document.

-What do you think it is time to conclude a peace treaty or there are still issues that need to be resolved? If there are questions that need to be resolved, what are they?

- Of course, time. One must remember that in the current conditions Azerbaijan needs to determine the status, the mandate of the Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh and to limit certain actions. After the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, certain diplomatic relations should be established. This automatically means mutual recognition of the territories. This means that Armenia now fully recognizes the borders of Azerbaijan. At the next stage, the destructive activities of Armenia will be severely limited by international law. This in itself is a very important point. It is also necessary to discuss the fate of the Lachin corridor in the current conditions and, in general, all the uncertainties that may create problems for Azerbaijan in the future, so that this does not come as a surprise to future generations. One should not forget that in the current conditions Armenia is doing everything possible so that these uncertainties remain

Here, as an unresolved issue, we must take into account how much Russia wants to benefit from the current situation. Because the war did not take place according to the Russian scenario. Therefore, now we see that many in Russia are expressing the opinion that, despite the return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan, it did not become a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. Russia itself will try to put forward its claims as openly as possible. As time elapses since the November 10 statement was signed, the justice of victory in Azerbaijani diplomacy is gradually weakening. Currently, there is a need to discuss these issues and sign a peace treaty that will bring more benefits to Azerbaijan.

-Will there be an opportunity to sign a peace treaty if it is prepared? Will official Moscow contribute to the peaceful end of this conflict? Will it be profitable for them?

- Russia really used the conflict as a kind of advantage. This reality lasts from the 90s to the mid-2000s. However, most researchers now agree that over the past 7-8 years, especially after the appearance of the so-called Lavrov plan, it turned out that Russia intends to make some progress in resolving the conflict. This is because in the 90s Russia was very weak. Therefore, he needed such a conflict to keep the region in his hands. Using this conflict, Russia was able to influence the processes in the region.

At present, Russia considers itself strong, and it is trying to ensure that this conflict is settled and gradually replaced by the integration of Azerbaijan and Armenia into projects led by Russia. It should be especially remembered that Russia is very closely following the military clashes in the South Caucasus. Observes in a very nervous form that all the events taking place here could be reflected in the North Caucasus of Russia.

Another issue that causes jealousy in Russia is Azerbaijan-Turkey, Azerbaijan-Pakistani relations. Such a friendly attitude means that after a while unwanted flags with similar stars and a crescent may appear in the North Caucasus. Therefore, Russia is now working to ensure that the situation remains as stable as possible, in order to control it without any additional stress. Russia has certain interests in resolving the conflict, signing a peace treaty. Of course, in comparison with the 90s, the conflict has significantly expanded Russia's ability to influence regional processes.

-When, how, on what conditions can a peace treaty be signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia so that this treaty satisfies the interests of each country?

- A treaty that would satisfy the interests of each country is impossible. If this were so, then there would be no need for war, everything would be resolved peacefully. We see that in the current conditions Azerbaijan is in a superior position. Therefore, we can think about what Azerbaijan can do in connection with the conflict. At present, Azerbaijan wants Armenia to be disarmed. So that not a single armed Armenian remains on the territory of Azerbaijan. Armenia has chosen Russia as the guarantor of its security.

If internal security on all borders of Armenia is ensured by Russia, then any army in this country will be created to have a destructive impact on the processes. This is a very important point that the Azerbaijani side must take into account. The Azerbaijani side demands that there should be no role for Armenia in the documents to be signed after that.

Let there be a peace agreement, but the mandate and all other issues will be determined with Azerbaijan. Because Armenia is a country that no longer has anything to do with Nagorno-Karabakh. All the processes taking place after this refer to the system of relations between the citizens of Azerbaijan, ethnic Armenians, and the government of Azerbaijan. This should keep the Armenian state aside to a certain extent. This means that the mandate of the peacekeepers and other documents do not need the signature of Armenia. Armenia's signature will be needed exclusively in the establishment of relations with Azerbaijan, recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. We are already seeing some activity in this direction.

In Armenia, for example, they talk about the transformation of the army into a new model of conscription. This is a five-year conscription, then a military gathering followed by exercises. Discussions about the regular army are currently underway in Armenia. As for the second question, in the statement of November 10, the mandate of the Russian peacekeepers was signed by the Armenian side, but because it was signed by Armenia, the Azeri side did not sign this document. It is obvious that the superior position of the Azerbaijani side in the peace treaty, the successes achieved in the war, had an impact. In the subsequent period, it will manifest itself. With all this, we must not push away from ourselves the idea of ​​peace. It should be borne in mind that if the Armenian-Russian symbiosis is a product of 200-250 years, then Armenia for a long time was formed in the cultural environment of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, and for about 400-500 years, it was a representative of this environment. Looking at the surnames and first names of most people in Armenia, we see this cultural influence. Therefore, I think that eventually Armenia will establish relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. In many cases, we will see that the role that Russia is playing for Armenia now can be played by Turkey and Azerbaijan. This can of course happen in the end.