Baerbock focuses on territorial integrity

In a diplomatic foray aimed at advancing the resolution of the protracted Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock concluded a two-day visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan over the weekend. Her mission sought to convey the European Union's stance on settling the dispute, which centers on the mutual recognition of territorial integrity by both parties, thereby effectively removing the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh's status from the negotiation table.

The backdrop for this diplomatic effort traces back two years, when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, endeavored to broker an agreement by synthesizing the principles of territorial integrity and the right of nations to self-determination. This approach aimed to grant Nagorno-Karabakh some form of independent status, at least within the borders of Azerbaijan. However, President Ilham Aliyev's steadfast refusal to concede such a status following the victorious 2020 war and the uncompromising stance of the Armenians, who insisted on full independence, ultimately led to a breakdown in negotiations and the resumption of hostilities. These hostilities resulted in the defeat of the self-declared regime in Karabakh and the mass exodus of Armenians from the region.

Baerbock's  visit to the region was initially scheduled for 10 days earlier but was postponed as Baku and Yerevan expressed readiness to engage in talks before her arrival, indicating a genuine desire to solidify their agendas for a peaceful settlement. On October 26, Armenian   Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ali Asadov held talks in Georgia, mediated by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili. Public statements from Pashinyan and Asadov indicated that both sides were prepared to sign a peace treaty recognizing the territorial integrity of their respective nations based on Soviet-era administrative borders. The closed-door discussions between Pashinyan and Asadov yielded additional outcomes, underscoring the potential progress made in these behind-the-scenes negotiations.

Baerbock's expedited visit to the region suggests that substantive progress has been achieved in the pursuit of peace, surpassing initial expectations. Both Germany and the European Union view the expeditious conclusion of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia as essential for the realization of their long-term interests in the South Caucasus, a region characterized by its strategic importance as a key multifunctional transport corridor and a hub with a European orientation.

The prospect of a peace treaty being signed before the year's end now seems plausible, given the prevailing circumstances. Beyond the European diplomatic framework, the 3+3 initiative has gained momentum, facilitating consultations between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Tehran. Additionally, Russia has reasserted its role, with Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev signaling Moscow's intent to contribute to the expeditious conclusion of a peaceful Armenian-Azerbaijani treaty.

Both Brussels and Moscow appear to be taking coordinated steps to accelerate the treaty-signing process, complementing each other as intermediaries. Despite the ongoing confrontation between the West and Russia in Ukraine, this clash has not spilled over into the South Caucasus conflict, as evident from the trajectory of events surrounding Karabakh. The mutual interest in a stable and peaceful South Caucasus aligns with the goal of fostering a balance of interests in this pivotal region on the global stage.