Forecast: Will a Peace Treaty Between Armenia and Azerbaijan Be Signed in 2025 or Delayed Until the 2026 Armenian Parliamentary Elections?

In the early phase of the war between Iran, the United States and Israel, the countries of the South Caucasus have found themselves in a familiar but increasingly fragile position: close enough to feel the consequences of the conflict, yet too vulnerable to take sides.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the country’s new constitution should not contain a reference to the 1990 Declaration of Independence because the document’s call for the reunification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia is “built on the logic of conflict.”

As Armenia prepares for parliamentary elections in June, the contest unfolding here is about far more than party platforms and campaign slogans. It has become a test of whether the small South Caucasus nation can consolidate its fragile democracy while resisting renewed pressure from Moscow — and whether Europe is willing to help.

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s trip to the capitals of Armenia and Azerbaijan is set to have serious and long-term consequences for the South Caucasus region.