The strategic importance of the South Caucasus countries for the West has increased

A Security conference was held in Munich on February 17-19. Azerbaijan also participated in the conference. As part of the Munich Security Conference on February 18, the conference "Overcoming mountains? Building security in the South Caucasus". Within the framework of the conference, debates were held between the leaders of the three countries of the South Caucasus. The President of Azerbaijan, the Prime Ministers of Georgia and Armenia spoke at the meeting.

Within the framework of the conference, Aliyev held a joint meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan.

Interesting events related to the region took place within the framework of this conference. There were interesting reports about Iran and Russia.

What can the Munich Conference change in the region?

The expert of the Topchubashov Center, Mohammad Mammadov, comments on the reports from Munich.

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Question: What conclusions should the world, as well as the region, draw from the political messages of the Munich Security Conference?

Answer: From the discussions at the Munich Security Conference, it can be concluded that democratic Western countries are interested in restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine and economic and military assistance will be provided to Kyiv for this. If last year the goal was to prevent Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now scenarios of Russia's possible defeat are being discussed. In this context, the phrase of French President Emanuel Macron "Russia must be defeated" acquires special significance. Summarizing, we can say that the main message to the world was that violating each other's territorial integrity could cost countries dearly, and the West's reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine should force other countries with similar goals (for example, a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan) to abandon these ideas. As for the conclusions for our region, we can say that the confidence that the continuation of the war, at least in the foreseeable future, gives reason to say that Russia's position in the South Caucasus region will be subjected to pressure from both the countries of the region and major foreign powers (for example, the United States, the EU, etc.) and the vacuum caused by the weakening of Russia increases the likelihood of conflict in the region. In particular, the gap that has formed between the West and Russia will cast serious doubt on the peaceful construction in the region.

Question: Within the framework of the conference, debates were held between the leaders of the three countries of the South Caucasus. Within the framework of the conference, Ilham Aliyev held a joint meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan. At the same time, the leaders of all three countries held meetings with other officials separately. This makes one think about the presence of great interest in the region or the presence of any plans for the region. What plans there might be  in connection with the region? Why is the South Caucasus so important to the West now?

Answer: In connection with the South Caucasus, it should be noted that the West has always been interested in establishing peace and stability in this region. Because, firstly, this region is a very close neighborhood for the main Western actors and the security crises that occur here are a headache for Europe as well. Russia's failure in Ukraine has created a number of opportunities for Western countries, especially the European Union, to actively participate in the peaceful construction of the region. It is not surprising that we are witnessing the EU's activity in normalizing Azerbaijani-Armenian relations, and in the coming days the dispatch of the EU monitoring mission to Armenia once again showed how ambitious Brussels is in this matter.

The second important issue is related to the geostrategic location of the region. If we consider the relations between the West and Russia after the Cold War, it becomes clear that when cracks appear in these relations, the strategic value of the countries of the South Caucasus for the West increases. This is especially evident in the important role that Azerbaijan and Georgia play in European energy security. At the same time, these countries, being important transit entities, play an exceptional role in ensuring Europe's access to various markets (especially China and Central Asia). After the sanctions weakened the Trans-Siberian route passing through Russia and connecting Europe with China, the increasing importance of the Middle Corridor passing through the South Caucasus in intercontinental trade once again showed the geostrategic importance of the countries of the region for the West.

Question: Can new plans related to Iran be an integral part of the interest in the region? As it is known, the heir of the last Shah of Iran was also invited to the conference, and this caused extensive discussions. What do you think is the purpose of this step?

Answer:  Of course, there is an Iranian component to the issue, because one of the actors who wants to take advantage of the fact that Russia's hands are tied in Ukraine and strengthen its position in the South Caucasus is Iran. After Iran's support for Russia with drones and missiles, the West expressed its dissatisfaction with Tehran through many channels. The European Union's submission for discussion of the issue of declaring the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization was just one of the manifestations of this. The invitation of the Crown Prince to the Munich conference, in my opinion, should also be considered in this context - support for Russia's annexationist policy can have serious consequences for the Mullahs' regime.

Question: What will Azerbaijan's position be in the plans related to Iran?

Answer: Azerbaijan's position on the issue of plans for Iran has always been clear. Baku has stated that its territory will never be used by a third force against Iran. Naturally, the deterioration of Iran's relations with Western countries brings Azerbaijan geopolitical and geo-economic dividends, increases its importance. However, Azerbaijan prefers to stay as far away from these feuds as possible.

Question: The West's interest in the South Caucasus region is likely to irritate Russia. What can you say in general about Russia's position regarding the messages of the Munich Conference, as well as the new plans that have appeared in relation to Russia? What will this conference of Russia be remembered for?

Answer: From Maria Zakharova's statements about the beginning of the work of the EU monitoring mission in Armenia, it becomes clear that the growing presence of the West in the region irritates Russia, and Moscow does not hide it in any way. The opinions expressed in Munich about Russia give reason to believe that the disagreements in the West, which the Kremlin counted on at the beginning of the war, did not come true, and the Western countries, which had previously experienced a crisis of existence, not only rallied closely under the flags of NATO and the EU, but even by arming Ukraine, seriously changed the course of the war. Therefore, Russia will remember this year's Munich Security Conference for the isolation and political-military consolidation of its opponents.

Question: One of the interesting moments is the meeting of the President of Azerbaijan with the leader of Iraqi Kurdistan. What's happening? Why is Azerbaijan interested in this meeting?

Answer: I think it's too early to give detailed comments on this. In general, it would be useful to consider this issue in the context of Azerbaijan's relations with Turkey and Israel and recent events with Iran.