"While the Russian military is in Karabakh, it will be difficult to establish control there"

On March 5, an armed incident occurred on the Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu road in Karabakh. According to a message by the Ministry of Defense on the same day, operational information was received about the transportation of ammunition and personnel from the Republic of Armenia to the territory of Azerbaijan, where the Russian peacekeeping contingent is temporarily located. In order to verify the information, units of the Azerbaijani Army attempted to detain and check vehicles carrying out illegal military transportation. It is reported that as a result of the fire opened by the opposite side, there are dead and wounded on both sides.

A few days before, on March 1, a meeting of the responsible person appointed by the Azerbaijani side with the Armenians took place in Khojaly. During the meeting, it was said that in accordance with the Constitution and laws of the Republic of Azerbaijan, preliminary discussions were held on the reintegration of Armenians living in the Karabakh region into the Republic of Azerbaijan, and that such contacts will continue. This has given rise to great hopes among many people for the reintegration of Armenians living in Karabakh into Azerbaijan and, in general, for a speedy resolution of the Karabakh problem within the framework of Azerbaijan's sovereignty.

But the armed incident on the Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu road on March 5 to some extent "cooled" these hopes. Political commentator Nasimi Mammadli answers the questions of ASTNA in connection with the events taking place.

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Question: Last week we discussed the meeting between representatives of Baku and Karabakh held at the headquarters of Russian peacekeepers in Khojaly, and we heard positive assessments. And in recent days we have been talking about an armed incident that occurred on the Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu dirt road. What is happening in Karabakh?

Answer: The recent history of the ideological struggle of Armenians against the Caucasian Turks, which is based on hatred and terror, covers a 35-year period, and the average history covers a period of 120 years. One of the bloodiest fields of this struggle is Karabakh. Therefore, it is important to assess the events currently taking place in Karabakh, both from a historical point of view and from the point of view of new geopolitical processes.

From a historical point of view, the issue has been comprehensively studied, however, due to the influence of new geopolitical processes, there are still quite complex and contradictory moments.

On November 10, 2020, after the trilateral declaration, a new humanitarian and political process is underway in Karabakh. Naturally, the mutual hostility that has existed for many years will not soon be forgotten and the emergence of a normal discussion atmosphere will not be easy. And against the background of active competition from large states that prevent the normalization of these relations, the situation has become even more complicated. Armenia wants to neutralize its defeat on the battlefield with the help of international support in the political and diplomatic plane.

The peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia are no longer a monopoly of Russia. Despite the fact that the basic document of the peace talks is the "trilateral statement", the parties have more confidence in the peace initiatives and mediation of the United States and the European Union. However, Russia still has the main word in Karabakh.

Russia does not want Azerbaijan's official contacts with Armenians living in Karabakh to be successful. Although at first glance Russia looks like the party that organizes these contacts, it is interested in aggravating relations in all possible ways. In fact, it patronizes the Armenian armed formations in Karabakh, provides assistance in their supply and provision. Russia is interested in maintaining tension in order to stay here for a long time. The main responsibility for the latest armed conflict lies with the Russian military contingent.

Question: All this happened after the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Baku and his meeting with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. Is there a connection between these events and Lavrov's visit and meeting with Mirzoyan?

Answer: The transportation of ammunition from Armenia to Karabakh, dubious trips occur regularly. Just after the action of eco-activists on the Lachyn road, the route changed. Also, all these transports are accompanied by the Russian military. I don't see any particular connection in the fact that the armed incident that occurred on the Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu dirt road coincided with Lavrov's visit to Baku and his meeting with the Armenian Foreign Minister. Because these provocative actions of Russia are neither the first nor the last.

Question: Is there an Iranian trace in recent events?

Answer: Let's look at the question a little more broadly. Who does not want peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, permanent stability, security and cooperation in the South Caucasus? Of course, first of all, Iran, Russia, the Armenian lobby, which has a serious influence in the West, the Armenian Church, the armed forces existing in Karabakh, and a certain nationalist part of the Armenian society.

Naturally, Iran is trying by all means to prevent Azerbaijan from getting rid of the Karabakh problem. He is interested in preserving this problem so that through it he can constantly exert influence. In this regard, the search for an Iranian trace in any tension and incident is logical and should not be excluded.

Question: The head of the separatist regime in Karabakh, Araik Harutyunyan, said that he rejected Baku's proposal to reintegrate Karabakh into Azerbaijan. Could the situation escalate on the eve of negotiations with Karabakh Armenians? Are anti-terrorist operations and armed conflict possible in the near future?

Answer: There is no need to seriously worry about the statement of the head of the so-called Harutyunyan regime. His statement is addressed to an internal audience, and there is no real power behind it. He made such ambitious statements even before the 44-day war. He knows well how it ended. Now the provision of military resistance to Azerbaijan can lead to even heavier losses.

There are now three approaches among the Armenians living in Karabakh. There are those who want to move to Armenia, those who are trying to find a way to live together with Azerbaijan and those who claim to continue the struggle for independence.

Before the 44-day war, there were no Armenians in Karabakh who wanted to live together with Azerbaijan. But even if there was, it was impossible to talk openly about it there. Before the war, there were no such discussions at all. Now some part of the population considers coexistence possible and can talk about it.

There are also a lot of people who want to move from Karabakh to Armenia, and they do not hide their intentions. Despite the fact that the Armenian political and religious elite, the Armenian Diaspora are categorically against such migration, a significant number of people will leave Karabakh forever at the first outbreak of tension. There are hesitations and fears among the population. Whatever the external support, it is impossible to live in such conditions for a long time.

The political line of continuing the struggle for Karabakh's independence is supported by the Armenian Diaspora in the West, the Armenian Church and religious elite, the Karabakh clan, Armenian nationalists living in Armenia and abroad, the Armenian opposition and the armed forces in Karabakh under the patronage of Russia. At the same time, persons who took part in the war, in war crimes against Azerbaijan and their relatives are in this position. For reasons of his own security, Harutyunyan is forced to make statements that these forces like.

Sooner or later, Azerbaijan must ensure control over its sovereign territories. Otherwise, there will be no guarantees of the security of regional projects, nor permanent peace in the region, nor cooperation. Despite the fact that Azerbaijan has sufficient capabilities and power to conduct anti-terrorist operations in Karabakh, it must also take into account the regional and international situation. In particular, to act in accordance with the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Question: Some experts suggest to place a post on the Lachin road to prevent the delivery of weapons to Karabakh. But we see that this is not the way out. Because the Azerbaijanis have been holding actions on this road for almost two months, the actual entry and exit is under control. However, Armenians also use alternative routes such as Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu. Moreover, according to experts, there are 4 alternative roads in Khankendi. Who can guarantee that when establishing a post on the Lachin road, Armenians will not carry weapons along alternative roads?

Answer: You are right, strict control should be established on the entire border with Armenia. By establishing control over only one Lachin road, it is impossible to solve this issue. Currently, the Azerbaijani army occupies important strategic heights on the border strip with Armenia. Strengthening from a military point of view in these areas is only part of the problem. Other important issues need to be resolved promptly. It is important to deliver supplies and food to these areas in winter, ensure a high level of security, and accelerate the settlement of the population. While the Russian military is in Karabakh, it will be very difficult to organize this control. But step by step control must be established.

Question: Who and what should do to reintegrate Karabakh Armenians into Azerbaijan and neutralize armed formations, prevent arming?

Answer: These issues should be clearly and concretely reflected in the peace agenda between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Perhaps the signing of a peace treaty will be delayed. It is necessary to take the necessary steps without waiting for the completion of this process.

In this regard the Russian and Western mediators should express a clear position. Anyone who considers Karabakh a part of Azerbaijan should take steps against rearming the population of these territories.

Armenia must commit itself to prevent the transportation of weapons and ammunition from its territory to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan should freely use all possible technical means to identify such facts. At the same time, Azerbaijan should strengthen direct contacts with Armenians living in Karabakh in the direction of reintegration.