Has Russia launched a large-scale offensive, and will Ukraine receive F-16s?

On January 11, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the commander of the Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine, General of the Army Sergei Surovikin (known as the "Syrian Butcher") from the post of commander of the Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine and appointed Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - First Deputy Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Valery Gerasimov, and Surovikin became his deputy.

Then, a message from the Russian Ministry of Defense,  explained this "castling" by "an increase in the level of leadership of a special military operation" and "the expansion of the scale of tasks solved in the course of its implementation, the need to organize closer interaction between the branches and branches of the armed forces." What has changed with the arrival of Valery Gerasimov as Commander of the Joint Forces in the War in Ukraine?

Military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko comments on these and other questions in the "Difficult Question" program.

According to him, the widely publicized new offensive of the Armed Forces of Russia into Ukraine is in full swing. “If we consider the situation in the Donetsk region, then the offensive of the Russians is taking place. That is, the intensity of hostilities is quite high. In addition, Russia is deploying additional units to the territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, trying to conduct offensive operations. In a word, a large-scale offensive has already begun.

The expert did not rule out that a major offensive might not be limited to these areas, although the Armed Forces are currently focused mainly on the capture of the Donetsk region.

“They can transfer additional forces to the Kharkov and Zaporozhye directions to intensify hostilities there. In this way they expect to stretch the front line. Musiyenko believes that soon Russia will transfer to the front a reserve - mobilized, which it has located on its territory - at training grounds and in units, as well as in Belarus.

According to him, the command of the Russian Armed Forces made enough mistakes during the year of the invasion and continues to make the same mistakes. So, the change of leadership didn't change anything. “There are unresolved problems that haunt the Russian Armed Forces. These are problems with logistics (Formation of logistics, and norms for the duration of movement and rest of troops). And to develop an offensive under such conditions is a gamble.

In the Zaporozhye direction, Russia has big problems with logistics, since the artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces inflicts on the logistics infrastructure of Russians in the depths of the occupied territories. The analyst also did not rule out the possibility of the Russians using the surprise factor to try to attack the right bank of Kherson again.

“They can do this in order to divert the attention of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the main task and focus it on the right bank,” he said, adding that this is also a gamble, since Kherson is too open a place to deliver a surprise strike.

Musienko also did not rule out that the Russians might try to attack from the Belarusian direction towards western Ukraine.

“Such scenarios are possible. But how feasible is this? Belarus' option is to stretch its supply chains. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction managed to strengthen themselves, there are fortifications, and trenches with bunkers and minefields, swampy, wooded areas. An attempt to develop an offensive in Zaporozhye will fail again due to problems with logistics,” the expert explained.

In his opinion, now the Russian Armed Forces are concentrating in the east in order to surround the Ukrainian troops from three sides.

“Hence the recent crushing failure in Ugledar, where the 155th Separate Marine Guards Brigade of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation suffered heavy losses. The tactics of the Russian military are straightforward and unsophisticated,” he said.—0—