The struggle between Russia and the West for influence in the South Caucasus, and the forecast of the development of the situation in the region - a conversation with an expert on the post-Soviet space Kirill Krivosheyev

He does not share the version of some experts who claim that Azerbaijan and Russia are getting closer. In his opinion, Moscow's close friends are its direct satellites. These are countries such as Belarus, the weakest countries in Central Asia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. And the relatively strong countries of the post-Soviet space - Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan - are less dependent on Moscow and, under certain conditions, can say no to it.

Referring to Armenia's reaction to Russia's actions during the 2020 war and the anti-terrorist operation conducted in Karabakh on September 19-20, 2023, Krivosheyev said that it was expected. Although, in his opinion, Russia's indifferent attitude was due to the fact that Azerbaijan struck at a time when Moscow could not take any decisive action in the South Caucasus. "It was at this moment that Azerbaijan finally closed the Karabakh issue," the expert said.

Krivosheyev is skeptical about the possibility of a full-scale invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan. He believes that there will be more than one armed clash on the border. Apparently, there will be some kind of fighting for the enclaves (Azerbaijani exclaves on the territory of Armenia – Ed.), because of the delimitation and demarcation of borders. In his opinion, "by invading, Azerbaijan will put itself under serious attack. In addition, it will look very unpleasant in Western eyes. There is a risk of getting sanctions and becoming non-compliant."

Krivosheyev is sure that Armenia does not want to allow the construction of the Zangezur corridor in principle and therefore it resists this with all available means. It says it does not like Russian border guards, does not like the route and will say anything. It does not want any  Azerbaijani goods or its people to move through its territory, seeing this as a threat.

"The Zangezur corridor runs through territories that Azerbaijan may claim in the future. In addition, it is a strategic location near the border with Iran," he says. As for the "Crossroads of the World" project presented by Armenia, which, in fact, is the Armenian version of the project to unblock communications in the region, according to the expert, this is just a fiction put into circulation to avoid recognizing that Yerevan is generally against communications.

Referring to Armenia's acquisition of weapons in France and India, Krivosheyev said that Yerevan is not arming for revenge, but only to avoid aggression against its territory. "It simply won't have enough strength for anything else in the next ten years," he believes.

Referring to the readiness of the Armenian society for peace, the expert said: "In the foreseeable future, it would be good if there were no shooting, the border was closed, but there would be diplomatic relations. It is better than what it is now. Because the sluggish armed conflict continues."