Russia could partially reroute its natural gas supplies to European countries through Turkey and Bulgaria, bypassing Ukraine, using the "Balkan Stream" and the Trans-Balkan Pipeline, according to Alexei Belogoryev, Director of Research at the Institute of Energy and Finance.
“Ukrainian transit to the European Union (EU) and Moldova could be partially replaced by increased Russian gas flows via Turkey and Bulgaria along two routes: the Balkan Stream to Hungary (serving Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria) and the Trans-Balkan Pipeline in reverse mode (delivering to Moldova and Romania),” Belogoryev told RIA Novosti.
He added that Hungary could receive an additional one billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually without expanding existing infrastructure. The total volume of gas rerouted through Turkey is estimated at 4–5 bcm per year, approximately one-third of the current transit through Ukraine.
The development comes after the expiration of the gas transit agreement between Kyiv and Moscow on December 31. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the agreement would not be renewed, and Gazprom officially ceased gas flows through Ukraine on January 1. Last year, about 15 bcm of Russian gas was transported to Europe via Ukraine.
The shift in transit routes has implications for Azerbaijan, a key energy hub in the region. Azerbaijan's strategic location and its role as a transit country for gas from the Caspian region to Europe, particularly through the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), may gain increased significance as Europe seeks to diversify its energy supply routes.
Energy experts suggest that Azerbaijan could benefit from these changes, as European reliance on non-Russian energy sources grows. The SGC, including the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), positions Azerbaijan as a crucial partner in ensuring energy security for the EU. Analysts also note that Turkey’s emerging role as a gas transit hub complements Azerbaijan’s efforts to enhance regional connectivity in energy exports.
As the geopolitical landscape surrounding energy transit evolves, Azerbaijan's ability to leverage its existing infrastructure and partnerships with Turkey and Europe could further strengthen its position in the global energy market.
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