Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (left) and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 20.11.2022
The meeting between the Turkish head of state and General Abdulfattah Sisi in Cairo on February 14 does not signify a shift in Mr. Erdogan's stance regarding the Muslim Brotherhood worldview. This diplomatic engagement is necessitated by evolving geopolitical dynamics in the region and globally. Turkey's pragmatic response to realpolitik demands underscores the adaptability required in navigating changing balances of power.
The recent escalation in the conflict between Jews and Arabs, notably triggered by Hamas' attack on Israel, has prompted international efforts towards a ceasefire and long-term peace initiatives. Amidst these efforts, Ankara's alignment with Qatar, considered a close ally, reflects its strategic calculus within the region.
However, Ankara's insistence on its proposed role in providence and its perceived indifference towards the plight of Palestinians affected by Israeli military operations risk undermining the Muslim Brotherhood's stature and Turkey's regional influence.
Despite uncertainties about Erdogan's overtures to Egypt, pressure from Western powers, particularly the UK, for the creation of an independent Palestinian state, underscores the urgency for Turkish engagement. While reconciling with Egypt may seem at odds with Erdogan's past rhetoric, it aligns with both Turkey's political philosophy and its international standing.
The dynamics of international relations necessitate pragmatic engagements, exemplified by Erdogan's meeting with Sisi despite years of animosity. The potential normalization of relations between Turkey and Egypt is underscored by Erdogan's acknowledgment of unhindered F-16 trade with Washington.
In the broader context, Turkey's estrangement from Cairo amid Russian overtures to Haftar in Libya and the evolving dynamics between Jerusalem and Riyadh following the Israel-Hamas conflict highlights the imperative for diplomatic recalibration.
The forthcoming public opinion polls will gauge the domestic reception of Erdogan's reconciliation with Sisi. However, the fragmented political landscape, reminiscent of the 1994 municipal elections, underscores the complexity of Turkey's domestic politics.
As the political landscape evolves, the coming days will reveal the twists and turns of fate amidst Turkey's recalibrated diplomatic maneuvers and internal political dynamics.
Great East
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The reason behind the 47th President of the United States declaring, “Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the sole winner in Syria and a strong leader. Erdoğan is a smart man,” lies not only in the present-day developments in Syria but also in events that unfolded six years ago. Indeed, it was Donald Trump who, in June and July of 2018, sent a series of tweets that destabilized Turkey’s economy in response to Turkey’s refusal to release an American citizen. By September of that same year, however, Trump supported Turkey’s role in backing jihadist forces that settled in Idlib and established an administrative structure there.
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As the conflict in Syria enters a new chapter, Turkey has emerged as the dominant player on the ground, wielding military and intelligence operations to shape outcomes in its favor. However, Ankara now faces a pivotal moment: Can it sustain its strong role in Syria amid growing economic strain, geopolitical complexities, and the uncertain future of the Syrian state?
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In a world that often measures revolutions by their ability to disrupt, Syria’s journey, which began with the Arab Spring of 2011, represents a chronicle of shifting ideologies, geopolitical maneuvers, and relentless human loss.
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I am once again flipping through the 2015 book "Syria. When you fail, resist" by my esteemed friend Fehim Taştekin, one of the best journalists who knows the Middle East.
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