Unsinkable

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, MPs from the pro-Russian Opposition Platform - For Life, Renat Kuzmin and Viktor Medvedchuk (godfather of Russian President Vladimir Putin) began to unleash a political scandal over biological laboratories operating under the US Department of Defense program. "Sweet Couple" sent a request to President of the country Vladimir Zelensky with a request to conduct an investigation - how are these laboratories funded and how do the Ukrainian authorities control them, are they developing viruses there, as in the Chinese laboratory in Wuhan?

The authors of the request claim that during the work of these laboratories, which began under Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, then stopped under Viktor Yanukovych and resumed under Vladimir Poroshenko, outbreaks of various viruses occurred in Ukraine, which were accompanied by deaths. At the same time, there were violations in the work of the laboratories that could be the cause of the leak of strains.

According to them, in 2016 in Kharkov, where one of the laboratories is funded by the DTRA (Defense Threat Reduction Agency - the Agency for the Reduction of Military Threats, which is a part of the US Department of Defense), “20 Ukrainian soldiers died from the flu-like virus at once. Another 200 people were hospitalized. There were still outbreaks of hepatitis A in Odessa, Zaporozhye, and again in Kharkov. In 2017, there was an outbreak of botulism and, as if deliberately the purchase of vaccine for this extremely rare disease stopped in 2014. Thus, they "organized" biomaterial for research."

The Russian media clung to it and, as they say, "the office went to write."  Allegedly, horror, around thirty US medical centers are concentrated right around the Russian borders, where secret biological developments are underway.

The fact that the demarche of the pro-Russian deputies coincided with the presentation of the candidacy of the ex-president of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili for the post of deputy prime minister of the government of Ukraine, which is hardly an accident. For Russia, the Georgian ex-president is the number one enemy. On the other hand, this is an excellent occasion for a political scandal.

It is clear that the initiative to nominate Saakashvili belonged to the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky. Such proposals may come exclusively from the president.

However, in order to bring Saakashvili into the government, it was necessary to collect 226 votes in parliament. However, even the presidential parliamentary faction "Servant of the People" reacted to the initiative of the president without much enthusiasm. This is explained not only by the fact that the establishment of Ukraine is not something that it does not like, but is afraid of Saakashvili. Since he is a strong competitor, he is very efficient and persistent. Everyone understands that he can change the political and media picture of Ukraine. Therefore, the political elite, where there is practically no bright figure, Saakashvili’s nomination could not be liked.

Many deputies, not without reason, feared that this appointment could aggravate the situation in the Donbass. The Kremlin conveyed through an intermediary, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, that if Saakashvili becomes deputy prime minister, this would aggravate   the Russian-Ukrainian relations and affect activity in the Donbas.

In the end, on April 24, it finally became clear that Zelensky would not be able to advance his staffing decision. Then he decided to take a different path and appointed by his decree Mikhail Saakashvili the head of the executive committee of the National Reform Council.

However, how could it happen that Zelensky’s policy, which from the first day of his presidency was not to annoy Moscow and achieve what he calls the peace, decided to take such an action, extremely unpleasant for Moscow, as nominating Putin’s personal enemy - Saakashvili?

Obviously, Zelensky needs to solve problems with IMF, and Saakashvili has excellent relations with this organization.

The IMF has prepared an 18-billion loan for Ukraine, and it is ready to provide the first tranche immediately. However, there is one condition - the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who is closely connected with Russia and has a huge influence on political processes in Ukraine, should not receive back the "Privatbank" which he stole from citizen; and that it should be framed by the legislative decision of the Rada.

For some reason, Zelensky thinks that he will help him solve this contradiction - to receive money from the IMF and return “Privatbank” to Kolomoisky in one form or another.

Probably, Zelensky is hoping that Moscow will forgive Saakashvili’s appointment, because, firstly, it is interested, that president Zelensky, the most convenient figure, receive money. Secondly, the well-being of Kolomoisky suits Moscow. It is he, and not Yermak, who is the ideologist of the surrender of Ukraine. It is enough to recall his statements a few months ago, they say you need to go back to Moscow, because the West wants to arrest me, and from Moscow, we will receive 100 billion, etc.

Yermak, who in such a way, pushes Ukraine to legalize the SADLR (“Separate areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions” definition from the Minsk agreements) in the political and legal field of Ukraine, either through the advisory council or local elections; or through the expanded participation of the SADLR in negotiations in Minsk, etc.; is just a creature of Kolomoisky. It was born because of the direct channel of communication with the Kremlin established by Kolomoisky, immediately after the election of Zelensky.

In a word, Russia's intention to influence Ukraine has not gone away. Moreover, it is now being implemented. Russia is now focused on two scenarios:

Scenario 1. A political crisis is provoked, an internal conflict that ends with the adoption of a new election code and the appointment of early parliamentary elections (presumably in the fall).

The Kremlin has a party that it is betting on (Opposition Platform - For Life) and hopes that they will be able to form a new majority in the Ukrainian parliament.

Under the new electoral code, elections will be held in local authorities and the Kremlin expects that under this code elections will be held in local authorities of the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR.

Scenario 2. The situation is getting out of control, and appear patriotic forces, which are accompanied by a series of terrorist attacks in Donetsk and Lugansk. The hand of Kiev is revealed, and Russia presents an ultimatum to Ukraine - "immediately disarm the radical forces, otherwise Russia will send its troops to ensure peace and security."

After this, “evidence” is presented of the involvement of some Ukrainian radical forces in one or another terrorist act. Obviously, Europe will not stand up for Ukraine and then Russia will receive carte blanche to conduct a “peacekeeping operation”.  The only hope for Ukraine is to rely on the United States.

According to available information, on April 17, at the initiative of the American side, a tough conversation took place about Ukraine and Belarus, US Presidential Assistant for National Security Robert O’Brien and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev. In fact, O’Brien warned Russia against aggressive actions against Ukraine.

It should be recognized that the Kremlin has chosen a very competent tactic - it is taking steps to strangle Ukraine and its surrender that it cannot cause, will not give the United States any reason to carry out its threat. Indeed, how can the US respond to the steps of the legal leadership of Ukraine in the person of Zelensky and Yermak?