Armenia expects a new offensive from Azerbaijani Armed Forces

Yerevan/04.05.16/Turan-ArmInfo: The next attack from Azerbaijan on Karabakh  is  a matter of time, said Armenian political scientist Richard Giragosian. He believes that the concentration of Azerbaijani forces in the three directions of the front line is not occasional, and predicts the offensive in the coming days or weeks. There is nothing and no one who would not allow Azerbaijan to do so, taking into account the results of the Baku  assessed  the  results of recent fighting, as a victory, he said  that the new attack will not be as strong as in April. "Azerbaijani Armed Forces are not so prepared to start a serious attack,"  he said. According to him, we should expect an offensive on the north and south with the aim of "damage  and destruction of the civilian population." The diplomatic situation has also chnaged, which has become dangerous for Armenia. In particular, the real danger is the lack of US and French involvement in the work of the Minsk Group, and the "betrayal" of Russia to Armenia, Giragosian said.

Growing tensions in Karabakh also predicted Alexander Markarov,  Director of the Armenian branch of the Institute of CIS countries. The concentration of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces on the front testified it, he said, but did not answer  the question  whether an attack will be on  9th of May?   Markarov believes that the negotiations on the settlement will be frozen, and for their continuation we need a point of contact and proposals acceptable to the parties, which do not have right now. "This can be either Kazan documents or updated Madrid principles, but at this point there is no prerequisites to continue negotiations," he said. Armenia's recognition of independence of Karabakh or its joining Armenia would mean conflict transition to the next level," he said, referring to the start of large-scale war.

Meanwhile, the Russian expert Sergey Markedonov reminded of the experience of ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosian offered at the time to take a phased settlement.  It is possible that certain "Karabakh" achievements by Ter-Petrosyan will be in demand right now. "It should be emphasized that these conditions are specified and are formed not only in Yerevan, but also outside it," he said. "Blitzkrieg failed, however, and the Azerbaijani army did not break  on impact  the Karabakh. Add to this cautious and  balancing position of Moscow, and equally accurate position of the West, and the full solidarity of  Ankara with Baku. Against this background, the Armenians should not underestimate the situation," said Markedonov .-02D-