Experts in Baku and Yerevan do not like the transportation of Russian gas to Armenia via Azerbaijan

Baku/18.03.21/Turan: In view of the repair work on the North Caucasus - Transcaucasia gas pipeline, the Russian side turned to Azerbaijan with a request for the transit of Russian gas to the territory of Georgia. The request was granted, and Russian gas will be temporarily supplied through Azerbaijan to the territory of Georgia for the corresponding transit payment, starting from March 17. On March 16, Gazprom Export signed a short-term (approximately 3 weeks) contract with SOCAR for the transportation of Russian gas through the territory of Azerbaijan, SOCAR told Turan. The matter concerns the transit of gas to Armenia, Russian media report.

This news can be considered the first fact of the implementation of one of the points of the Ceasefire Statement of November 9, 2020, in which V. Putin, I. Aliyev and N. Pashinyan agreed to unblock the transport routes between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia comment on the news differently. Political scientist Elkhan Shainoglu considers Baku's consent to be forced, under pressure from Russia.

This is another manifestation of the Azerbaijanis' goodwill towards the Armenians, despite the enmity. In the days after the Spitan earthquake, rescuers were sent from Baku to Armenia, and during the fuel crisis in Georgia, Armenian churches in this country were heated with gas from SOCAR. However, Armenia responded with aggression against Azerbaijan. The kind gesture of Azerbaijan, victorious in the war, towards the defeated Armenia can be called the beginning of reconciliation, but in Armenia and Karabakh, they talk about revenge and independence of the separatists from Baku. There is no reason to expect Armenian gratitude this time, - E. Shainoglu reminds.

“At the same time, the transit of gas to Armenia through Azerbaijan will slightly strengthen the internal political positions of N. Pashinyan, who will be able to argue the Armenians benefit from improving relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry received another argument in favor of establishing permanent peace and opening communications to Nakhchivan through the Meghri corridor in Armenia,” Shainoglu told Turan.

“Of course we are protesting. Nothing should be transported through the territory of Azerbaijan to Armenia. A softening of our attitude towards Armenia can only be after the full restoration of Baku's power throughout the territory of Karabakh,” Akif Nagy, chair of the Karabakh Liberation Organization, answered Turan's question.

Even in this case, we must reestablish relations carefully, since the Armenians cannot be trusted. Therefore, under no pretext we should not supply to Armenia not only gas, but even a handful of water, A. Nagy added.

Even in this case, we must reestablish relations carefully, since the Armenians cannot be trusted. Therefore, under no pretext we should not supply to Armenia not only gas, but even a handful of water, A. Nagy added.

Azerbaijani expert, researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Academy of Sciences of the Russian Federation, Alexander Karavaev, also answered Turan's questions.

“Such a scheme could not have been used before, since Azerbaijan harshly suppressed the re-export of not only gas controlled by the state company SOCAR, but also ordinary cargo. This scheme can be realized only in a new post-conflict situation, when the opening of transport routes in the South Caucasus has been launched,” he noted.

When asked whether such a situation is objective or simulated, he replied, “Routine (repair - ed.) Work on gas pipelines is carried out periodically. Armenia has underground gas storage facilities, but they have enough gas reserves for a week. Gas from Iran cannot be directly used for domestic purposes, since all Iranian gas in Armenia is used to generate electricity, which is sold to Iran. Iranian additional supplies could not be ramped up quickly, given the diameter of the pipeline. The routine maintenance has been announced for up to three weeks, it turns out that Armenia cannot avoid an acute gas shortage without attracting traffic through Azerbaijan.

Could there be political speculations in Armenia about the allegedly violent, cunning involvement of the country in the economic opportunities of Azerbaijan?

-What is happening is beneficial for not only Azerbaijan and the regional economy. The discussed scheme of Russian gas supplies is useful to Armenia too. Steps are being taken towards the gradual diversification of the gas market, reduction of monopoly and sustainability of supplies. Of course, what is happening can be a good political step, at the same time it is a technical necessity, said the Moscow expert.

Karavaev's version of Armenia’s economic despair to agree to involve Azerbaijan in gas transit is refuted by the responsible economist of the Economic Research Office of the Dashnaktsutyun Party Bureau, economist Suren Parsyan. Armenia does not need to import gas from Azerbaijan for three weeks, unless, of course, the deal has longer-term prospects, he wrote on Facebook.

The volumes of natural gas accumulated in the Abovyan gas storage are sufficient to meet the domestic demand of Armenia for more than three weeks. That is, Armenia will not need to import gas from Azerbaijan for three weeks, unless, of course, this deal pursues more long-term prospects. It is noteworthy that the government of Armenia, which is in a state of war, has not yet responded to this decision and has not specified how much it meets the interests of Armenia. As a result, it remains to assume that the motive for this deal is the concession of the sovereign Nakhchivan-Azerbaijan road under the guise of unblocking the infrastructures of Armenia, which the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem is trying to achieve at any cost,” a representative of Dashnaktsutyun criticized the decision of Russian Gazprom. --0--