Oil curse and elections: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia

International Conference "Political parties and elections in the oil-rich former Soviet countries: Is it possible to prevent “contractual” democracy? was held in Baku.

The event, organized by the Center for National and International Studies (CNIS) was  attended by Igor Mintusov, the Russian political consultant, one of the founders of PR-company "NICOLO M", Viktor Kovtunovsky, analyst of the  Kazakhstan Civil Society Foundation, and local experts.

Overall, the speeches of the participants were focused around the elections as a legitimate way of formation and change of power, creating conditions for political competition.

According to the head  of the CNIS, Leyla Aliyeva, the oil countries share a characteristic feature when the dominant political force suppresses all political competition, as a threat to their economic interests.

"I have to note with regret that the political system in Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have more in common than we would like," said Igor Mintusov, noting that elections in these countries are in the form of a plebiscite. A characteristic of these countries is that the percentage of votes for the ruling party and the leader is increasing every year, the opposition is marginal, and the systemic opposition supports  the ruling party. "All of this rests on two pillars: the permanent leaders, the indifference of the population that is afraid of instability," said Mintusov.

Igor Kovtunovsky completed the picture  by characteristic features  of regimes in these countries, pointing to the real domination of the ruling party, the excessive concentration of political system, the legal restriction of the status of parliament, violations of the electoral process, the lack of an independent judiciary system. "All these countries are  pursued by  oil curse, Dutch disease, unhealthy tax system,  and corruption," he said.

According to Kovtunovsky, Kazakhstan elite realizes  the need for changes, but  the inertia and fear of losing the property in case of change of power, prevents them. "But all the same, there is a strategic optimism  in the expert community, which is caused by the expansion of the world's democracies and the range of the inevitability of change."

In Azerbaijan, where the concentration of power and the resulting negatives are expressed  more compared  with the other two countries, there is a certain optimism generated by the activation of society. According to Anar Mammadov, head of the Election Monitoring and Democratic Studies Center (EMDS),  a recent online survey showed that more than a thousand of those surveyed, 50% of users are willing to contribute to the event, such as  in Guba and Ismailli regions if  they occur in their habitat area. "This is a big number,  if to take into account that in the 2010 elections  no more than 20% of voters were involved," said Mammadov. -0-