Central Asia under the pressure of circumstances

On Thursday, July 21, the heads of the Central Asian countries (Presidents of Kyrgyzstan - Sadyr Japarov, Kazakhstan - Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Tajikistan - Emomali Rahmon, Turkmenistan - Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Uzbekistan - Shavkat Mirziyoyev) held the Fourth Annual Consultative Meeting on the shore of Lake Issyk-Kul in the city Cholpon-Ata to discuss current regional challenges and amend the format of cooperation that was formed 30 years ago after the collapse of the USSR.

Consultative meetings of the heads of state of Central Asia are held at the initiative of Shavkat Mirziyoyev to "maintain a confidential dialogue and develop coordinated approaches on topical regional issues." The first summit of the leaders of the region was held in March 2018 in Nur-Sultan, the second - in November 2019 in Tashkent, the third meeting was held in August last year in the Avaza National Tourist Zone in Turkmenistan.

The  presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan arrived at the summit a day earlier. Information sites that have shown interest in the meeting are replete with photo evidence of the cultural program of the guests, refectory ceremonies on the Issyk-Kul Ak Kem (White Ship) and in a traditional nomadic yurt.

Of course, today the number one issue of world politics is the war in Ukraine, and its echo is reflected in all countries of the former Soviet empire. One can recall the cheeky comments of the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan about the quasi-states of the LNR and the DNR, or about near-Kremlin quasi-politicians.

But the topic of Ukraine never slipped into the official reports of the meeting, which suggests that the Central Asian countries do not want to upset the fragile regional understanding and balance by possible destructive actions of the Kremlin. This is evidenced by the proposal of President Tokaev to invite Russia and China to participate in consultations in the future, as well as the postponement of signatures under the final statement of the summit of the presidents of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan under the pretext of their domestic procedures.

"Perhaps, it is necessary to invite representatives of neighboring states to the region, for example, Russia and China, to consultative meetings of the heads of Central Asia," Tokayev said. Central Asia is in a zone of increased danger, which comes from the Taliban, who recently seized power in Afghanistan. In the agenda of the meeting in terms of security, this issue was paramount.

“Unfortunately, the international situation does not inspire optimism, both in terms of global security and the world economy. Today, the Central Asian states face traditional security challenges and threats, and their new hybrid forms have emerged.

In this regard, I cannot but touch upon a very important issue that continues to have a significant impact on regional security in Central Asia. I mean the situation in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the situation there continues to be complex and unpredictable.

In our opinion, the coming to power of the Taliban and the government formed by him is a harsh reality, and we need to develop a joint line of conduct in this direction, including making every effort to ensure that neighboring Afghanistan embarks on the path of peaceful and sustainable development,” Sadyr Zhaparov addressed his colleagues.

The Central Asian countries initially cannot convince the Taliban of the need to create an inclusive government in Afghanistan, which would include ethnic Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Kyrgyz, which would allow building predictable relations with Kabul.

The second most important issue of regime security in the Central Asian countries is the freedom of the Internet, which, according to the participants of the meeting, is a destabilizing factor. This problem was highlighted during the January crisis in Kazakhstan and the recent protests in Karakalpakstan, where social networks have become the main sources of alternative information and means of communication.

President Mirziyoyev pointed to “new challenges related to illegal activities on the Internet, the scale of which is increasing ... Today, these threats have no borders - they penetrate through mobile phones. Unfortunately, the recent ones have again confirmed the presence of destructive forces that are trying to disrupt our plans, sow chaos and instability in our region. In this regard, we support the proposal to launch regular consultations of the heads of the security councils and special services of the countries of the region in all these areas.”

As part of the economic block of the agenda of the summit, regional cooperation and trade came to the fore, the relevance of which was highlighted by the aggravating food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. With a total regional GDP of $300 billion, intra-regional trade accounts for, according to various estimates, from 5% to 10% of the total trade turnover of the region's countries. The countries agreed to think over the issues of simplifying customs procedures, promoting joint projects, streamlining water use for the development of agriculture and the ecosystem.

A special text spoke about the transport arteries of the region and their development in the southern direction with access to the seas.

Tokayev said that Kazakhstan is ready to participate in the construction of the Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway.

The estimated cost of the Trans-Afghan Highway project is about $5 billion. The 573-kilometer railway will provide Central Asian countries with access to Pakistan's major seaports, which will contribute to the development of regional communications and trade.

With the full implementation of the project, it is expected that the transportation of goods from Pakistan to Uzbekistan will take not 35, as at present, but 3-5 days, and the cost of transporting one standard cargo container can be reduced by almost three times. At the same time, according to forecasts, the volume of cargo transportation along this route can reach 10 million tons.

He also called on the partners to make more active use of the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway as the shortest route between East Asia and the countries of the Persian Gulf. This new logistics solution makes it possible to travel over 6,000 km in just 12 days.

“The Kazakh seaports of Aktau and Kuryk can provide access to the markets of the Middle East and Europe. I am sure that Turkmenistan, which is successfully developing the infrastructure of the port of Turkmenbashi, adheres to the same position,” Tokayev said.

These and other issues are reflected in the final documents of the summit:

- Joint Declaration;

- Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation;

- The concept of interaction in international platforms;

- Green Agenda;

- Roadmap for the development of regional cooperation for 2022-2024.

In addition, the final documents were adopted within the framework of the Fourth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia in Cholpon-Ata.

The fifth summit will be held in 2023 in Dushanbe. Azerbaijan expressed its desire to take part in this anniversary summit. “However, preliminary consultations and soundings have shown that there is no consensus yet. In this regard, if there is no objection, I propose to instruct the Foreign Ministers to work out the issue and report through diplomatic channels,” Sadyr Japarov said.

Summing up, it can be noted that the Fourth Consultative Meeting of the Central Asian leaders, whose political and economic ties are closely tied to Russia, took place at a really difficult time, when the region is surrounded by zones of instability, including the Russian-Ukrainian war, the US confrontation with China and Iran, the Afghan threat export revolution, import dependence. All these factors put pressure on the region, but at the same time they carry a positive element - an understanding of the need to consolidate efforts to create systems for a common security system for Central Asia. It is this factor that should become decisive in the development of the future of Central Asia and the optimistic scenario for the region.

The meeting revealed the internal problems of the region, which can find its effective solution if all five states cooperate closely. This mainly includes border issues that have not been resolved after the collapse of the USSR and at times create an explosive situation, putting states on the brink of war. This is followed by the rational use of water resources in Central Asia, which is also an interstate problem in the context of a shortage of water resources. This is even more relevant in the modern period, the aggravation of the problem of food security.

The solution of these issues is being delayed because of the unwillingness and inability to solve problems at the bilateral level. This is demonstrated by the 30-year experience of relations between the Central Asian countries. The geographical and political position of the region dictates the need for a systematic approach to solving problems and tasks, including regional integration in the economic, social, humanitarian fields, as well as in the field of security.

The countries of the region participate in various regional unions, such as the CIS, the Customs Union, the SCO, and the CSTO. However, all of these organizations are non-regional and tear apart Central Asia, since some states are part of certain entities, while others are not. Also, the internal life of Central Asia is influenced by external influences, often competing and contradictory, which is destructively projected onto the internal regional policy of the Central Asian countries.

The consultations showed that the time has come for the Central Asian countries to form their own agenda within the framework of the Union of Central Asian States, with the provisional name, in order to develop intra-regional integration processes. The creation of an open space for investment, the movement of goods, people, the development of joint transport and water arteries, the creation of a single trade and security zone will become a favorable basis for the settlement of border and interethnic issues. The creation of a single space in Central Asia will lead to the realization by the citizens of the region of themselves as part of a single whole, will reduce the severity of interethnic, interstate and other problems, and will ensure peace and prosperity in the region.