Hidden anxieties and fractures of trust: why relations between Baku and Moscow are entering a turbulent phase

A series of drone strikes on Russian oil pipeline infrastructure in the Black Sea have disrupted shipments of Kazakh crude via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), exposing the vulnerability of one of Central Asia’s most important export routes amid the war in Ukraine.

On January 29, former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan announced his intention to return to power in Armenia. He explained his decision by saying he wanted to 'the country from the crisis into which Pashinyan's team had led Armenia.

The day before, the Armenian Foreign Ministry published a document defining the implementation procedure for the Trump Road for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project. The document was presented following a meeting between Ararat Mirzoyan and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington.

On January 5, the presidents of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan gave extensive interviews to local journalists: Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to the newspaper Turkistan in Kazakhstan, and Ilham Aliyev to a group of Azerbaijani television channels. Although the contexts and challenges facing Astana and Baku differ, both leaders articulated a strikingly similar set of priorities shaped by economic transformation, geopolitical realignment, and the post–Cold War order.