Moscow's Rebuke to Yerevan Unveils Geopolitical Chess in the South Caucasus

As Russia’s relations with the West continue to deteriorate sharply, the Kremlin is increasingly searching for political and economic support beyond Europe. One of the platforms for this effort has become the international forum “Russia – Islamic World: KazanForum,” held in the city of Kazan, which Moscow has transformed from a purely economic gathering into an important element of its broader geopolitical strategy.

Russia intends to preserve and strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus despite growing pressure from the West and the gradual weakening of Moscow’s position in the region following the war in Ukraine. This conclusion follows from an interview given by Mikhail Kalugin, director of the Fourth CIS Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, to the Russian state news agency TASS.

Military orchestra marches once again echoed across Red Square while Soviet Victory banners fluttered above the Kremlin walls. Yet Moscow’s May 9, 2026 Victory Day parade looked markedly different from previous years: fewer foreign leaders, less heavy military equipment, more soldiers returning from the war in Ukraine, and a visibly darker political atmosphere.

For decades, the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow was the central geopolitical spectacle of the post-Soviet space — a demonstration of Russia’s military power, a symbol of victory in the Second World War, and a reminder that the Kremlin still claimed the role of the center of the former Soviet empire. Red Square gathered leaders from dozens of countries, while foreign delegations stood beside the Russian leadership against the backdrop of rolling tanks and flights of strategic bombers.