Putin sends message to Munich Security Conference

All attention is focused on the recent interview of Russian President Vladimir Putin with former  Fox News host Tucker Carlson on the eve of the Munich Security Conference (ICD), which is scheduled  for February 16. At this critical moment in world events, Putin's position on Ukraine and the looming specter of further developments are resonating throughout the international community, setting the stage for key discussions in the ICD on the security of Europe, the Ukrainian conflict and the Middle East crisis.

Putin's interview clarified two fundamental issues of primary interest to the ICD participants: the prospect of a global conflict and the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Speaking about global security, Putin unequivocally assured the West that Russia has no intention of launching military action against any member of the North Atlantic Alliance unless it encounters aggression. "Anyway, they (NATO countries – Ed.) are talking about it, and they are trying to intimidate their population with an imaginary Russian threat. This is an obvious fact. And thinking people - not ordinary people, but thinking people, analysts, those who are engaged in real politics, just smart people - understand perfectly well that this is fake. The Russian threat is being inflated."

However, he issued a sharp warning that Russia would enter into conflict with NATO if foreign troops were deployed in Ukraine. Moreover, Putin declared Russia's readiness to enter into a global war, using all available means of destruction, if NATO or the United States provoke an open military confrontation, which "will put humanity on the brink of a very serious, global conflict",

Turning to the Ukrainian crisis, Putin made it clear that he was ready to resume negotiations based on the status quo as of April 2022, which was caused by Ukraine's rejection of previous diplomatic efforts. It is noteworthy that discussions between Ukraine and Russia followed, accompanied by such notable meetings as the meeting of Foreign Ministers Dmitry Kuleba and Sergey Lavrov in Antalya on March 10 and subsequent negotiations in Istanbul, which started on March 29. (During the meeting, the Ukrainian side handed over to the Russian delegates a draft agreement known as the Istanbul communique, in which, among other things, Ukraine was ready for the non-aligned status of a non-nuclear country under specific security guarantees, and offered to resolve the issue of Crimea's belonging by means of diplomacy for 15 years. It is noteworthy that the draft agreement did not include the requirements for the withdrawal of troops to positions before February 24, 2022, which the Ukrainian delegates voiced earlier).  However, by May, these discussions eventually reached an impasse, and Putin attributed the disruption to the alleged interference of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the United States, accusing them of obstructing negotiations and prolonging the conflict. The talk is about Johnson's visit to Kiev on April 9, 2022, when he assured Zelensky of broad military assistance from the West in case of Russian resistance.

Putin's interview also shed light on his vision of the future of Ukraine, suggesting the possibility of returning controlled territories, provided that Kiev abandons its anti-Russian position. He elaborated on the concept of a civil war between Ukrainians and Russians, emphasizing the historical and cultural ties between the two peoples and hinting at a possible reconciliation akin to past conflicts. According to Putin, this internal war is comparable to the civil war of 1918-1922, after which the parties eventually came to unity.

This discourse coincides with recent statements by Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzia, who, in an interview with the BBC on February 8, rejected the prospect of negotiations within the framework of the "Copenhagen format" proposed by Ukraine (Informal consultations organized by Ukraine on the "basic principles of peace" with the participation of representatives of many leading countries took place in Copenhagen on June 24, 2023. The meeting was attended by senior advisers from the G7 countries, including Italy, Great Britain, France, Canada, Germany, and Japan.  Representatives of the State security services of South Africa, India, Brazil, Turkiye, and Saudi Arabia also took part in the consultations. They supported President Vladimir Zelensky's Formula for Peace: to end the war, Russia must confirm the territorial integrity of Ukraine, withdraw troops from Ukrainian territory and pay compensation for the damage caused by the war).

"If they tell you that they are ready for negotiations within the framework of the so-called Copenhagen format, which, in fact, is an ultimatum to NATO, then this is unacceptable for us. The real negotiations, when they begin sooner or later, will take into account the situation at the front," Nebenzia said in an interview with the BBC.

Nebenzia's remarks underlined Russia's insistence on holding talks reflecting the current military situation, which creates additional uncertainty regarding diplomatic solutions.

As the conflict in Ukraine enters a new phase characterized by positional warfare, the imperative for peace negotiations becomes increasingly urgent. Military reports indicate a shift towards a more static battleground, prompting a renewed focus on diplomatic solutions to end the protracted crisis.

American economist Jeffrey Sachs, in a recent interview with the Judging Freedom YouTube channel, underscored the urgent need for Ukraine to engage in peace talks with Russia. Sachs lamented the devastating toll of the conflict on Ukraine's societal fabric, emphasizing the demographic decline exacerbated by territorial changes and the mass exodus of millions of Ukrainians fleeing their homeland. His assessment paints a grim picture of a nation in peril, facing not only physical destruction but also a profound erosion of its population and identity.

In stark contrast, Jonathan Feiner, First Deputy Assistant to the US President for National Security, articulated Washington's strategy to compel Moscow into negotiations on terms favorable to Kiev. Speaking at the Aspen Institute forum last December, Feiner outlined a proactive approach aimed at leveraging international norms and principles, particularly those enshrined in the UN Charter, to secure Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. This stance reflects a commitment to advocating for Ukraine's interests within the framework of multilateral diplomacy.

These divergent perspectives encapsulate the complex dynamics at play in the quest for peace in Ukraine. On one hand, there is a recognition of Ukraine's dire circumstances and the pressing need to halt the destructive cycle of violence through dialogue and negotiation. On the other hand, there is a strategic calculus that seeks to leverage international pressure to compel concessions from Moscow, emphasizing the importance of upholding principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Navigating these competing interests and narratives poses a formidable challenge for policymakers and diplomats alike. The task ahead involves bridging the gap between these divergent perspectives to forge a viable path towards peace and reconciliation.

Putin's interview with Tucker Carlson gives an idea of Russia's position on global security and the Ukrainian crisis ahead of the Munich Security Conference. Ultimately, Putin's statements indicate a willingness to engage in dialogue and search for compromises to resolve the crisis in Ukraine. As the ICD approaches, the international community will closely examine Russia's actions and rhetoric, recognizing the key role it plays in shaping the trajectory of regional security and stability.