Russia's Interests in Azerbaijan: A Retrospective Analysis and Prospective Outlook

The 11th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) took place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on November 6, 2024, amid heightened focus on regional security and cooperation. As Turkic countries, which gained independence 30 years ago, face pressure from larger powers and navigate complex geopolitical challenges, the summit underscored both the ambitions and strategic maneuvers of its member states to strengthen unity and economic resilience in an increasingly multipolar world.

The recent presidential election in Moldova placed the country at a political crossroads, as incumbent President Maia Sandu secured a victory by a narrow margin in a tense second-round contest against Alexandr Stoianoglo. The election, which concluded on November 3, saw broad participation, especially from Moldovans living abroad, and revealed deep divisions within the country about its future path: whether Moldova should remain linked to Russian influence or continue its course toward European integration.

In an emotionally charged speech to the Verkhovna Rada on October 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his "Victory Plan"—a bold and multi-layered roadmap to end the war with Russia. The plan, consisting of five public points and three secret appendices, combines geopolitical, military, and economic strategies, portraying Ukraine's determination to regain control and force Russia into diplomacy. However, behind the rhetoric of strength and resolve lie important questions: Is this truly a plan for peace, or does it risk escalating an already volatile conflict?

In a move that underscores Russia's strategic interest in the South Caucasus, Sergei Naryshkin, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), visited Baku earlier this week, holding high-level meetings with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and officials from Azerbaijan's intelligence agencies. The visit, held on October 2-3, highlights Moscow’s intention to reinforce its influence in the region amid a backdrop of growing anti-Western rhetoric from both Russian and Azerbaijani leadership.