Russia's Interests in Azerbaijan: A Retrospective Analysis and Prospective Outlook

The Ukrainian blogosphere has sparked a call to boycott the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in Baku, followed by an agreement between SOCAR and Gazprom on cooperation in the gas business. This reaction reflects a complex web of emotions and political calculations in Ukraine, a country deeply scarred by Russia's ongoing aggression. Ukrainian authorities remain silent on the matter, and there seems to be a general sense of indifference in society, although the prevailing sentiments are far from straightforward.

Immediately following the agreement to expand the strategic partnership between Gazprom and SOCAR, Azerbaijan's government-affiliated[1] and pro-Russian[2] media[3] published articles against official Kyiv in response to a campaign[4] by Ukrainian consumers boycotting SOCAR's fuel stations. On May 31, 2024, Palestinian activists in Turkey organized an attack on SOCAR's Istanbul office[5] due to its fuel sales to Israel. Besides Ukraine and Turkey, SOCAR operates fuel stations under the "SOCAR" brand in Georgia, Romania, Switzerland, and Austria, and under the "A1" brand in Austria[6].

For the first time since launching a full-scale war against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made an official state visit to the South Caucasus, specifically to Baku. The timing of Putin’s visit to the South Caucasus is no coincidence, as it occurs amid growing tendencies to distance from Russia in the region, with the Armenian government and the Georgian people increasingly advocating for accelerated integration with the West. Additionally, talks are ongoing regarding the opening of the Armenia-Turkey border.

The two-day visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to Uzbekistan on August 22-23, 2024, marked another phase in the deepening relations between the two countries. Concluding with the signing of the Treaty on Allied Relations, this visit elevated bilateral relations to the level of a strategic alliance, positioning both countries as vital partners in the broader context of Central Asia and the Caucasus. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev highly praised this agreement, calling it a breakthrough in their developing cooperation, which has gained momentum in recent years.