The era of the multipolarity of Central Asia seems to be coming to an end

The Fifth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of Central Asian States (CA) took place on September 14-15, exuding an air of grandeur and opulence. The event was hosted by President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan, renowned for his warm and lavish hospitality, which lent an air of oriental extravagance to the summit. (The Fifth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of Central Asian States was attended by President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Zhaparov, President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhammedov, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Guest of honor — President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.).

Beneath the facade of Central Asian splendor and the seemingly ceremonial gathering of authoritarian leaders, lie a host of grave challenges encompassing both regional and global geopolitical issues. In the regional context, significant concerns revolve around security, logistical considerations, the utilization of water resources, and economic cooperation. These concerns found their place in the diligently crafted final statement issued by the participating Heads of State.

As for global factors, they were not made public at the summit by agreement of the parties. Two primary factors contribute to this reticence. Firstly, a fierce rivalry has unfurled between the United States and the European Union on one side and Russia on the other, primarily fueled by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, China seeks to establish its own strategic trajectory within the geopolitical arena, further complicating matters. Secondly, the mounting competition among these global geopolitical players for supremacy in the Central Asian region underscores the significance of the situation.

The Fifth Consultative Meeting thus conceals a complex web of regional and international dynamics, where the allure of Central Asian opulence masks the profound geopolitical challenges at play.

Regional challenges

In the wake of the Consultative Meeting held in Kyrgyzstan in July 2022, the Central Asian region witnessed a surge in regional challenges. A violent armed border conflict erupted between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, primarily concerning control over the road leading to the Tajik enclave of Vorukh. This conflict resulted in a tragic loss of life and further strained relations among the neighboring states.

Additionally, tensions escalated in mid-August between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The latter refused to supply water to Kazakhstan due to the depletion of water quotas, causing shortages for Kyrgyzstan itself. In response, Kazakhstan imposed restrictions on the entry of Kyrgyz transport. However, at the recent summit, the participating parties reached a consensus to address these pressing issues through diplomatic consultations within the framework of international law.

One notable achievement in the realm of regional cooperation has been the remarkable growth of regional trade. Intra-regional trade turnover surged by 80% over the last five years, surpassing the $10 billion mark. The Central Asian states aim to boost this figure to $15 billion in the near future while focusing on reducing dependency on imported goods. Kazakhstan, for instance, has identified the potential to increase exports to regional states across 175 commodity categories. Kazakhstan's President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, also proposed the establishment of a unified electronic database of commodity producers via the Central Asia Gateway portal.

Another pivotal agenda item at the summit was logistics. Recognizing the region's weak logistics infrastructure and the underdevelopment of international transport corridors as barriers to internal and external connectivity, the Heads of State emphasized the importance of the middle corridor, which facilitates Central Asia's access to the Western direction via the Trans-Caspian route.

President of Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, introduced a proposal for the creation of a Central Asian transport and logistics platform. This platform's primary objective would be to explore the establishment of transport hubs in the region, enhance the efficiency of existing transit corridors, and streamline customs, migration, and other procedures along international transport routes crossing the territories of Central Asian states.

Addressing trade challenges, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan highlighted the high cost of freight transportation in the region, largely due to its geographical distance from major foreign markets. He stressed the need to formulate specific mechanisms for promoting efficient transport corridors that provide access to markets in China, South Asia, the Middle East, and the European Union through the use of competitive through tariffs.

A notable development at the summit was the presence of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as an honorary guest. His attendance signified a significant shift in the transport orientation of the Central Asian region. Trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries increased more than threefold in the previous year, with a further 50% growth recorded in the first seven months of the current year. Joint investment funds have been established, and mutual investments exceeding $1 billion over the next three years have been agreed upon. Both industrial and agricultural projects are underway, including those in cotton farming, sericulture, horticulture, and animal husbandry, along with investments in the hotel and tourism sectors.

The transport and logistics sector holds a crucial place in these burgeoning relations. Azerbaijan serves as a reliable transit country for Central Asian nations en route to markets in Turkey and Europe. Investments are being made to modernize the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, expand the capabilities of the Baku Commercial port, and increase the production capacity of Azerbaijani shipyards to meet the growing demand for cargo transportation.

Furthermore, Aliyev emphasized the need to optimize tariffs, simplify regulatory and customs procedures, and digitize the East-West transport corridor for enhanced transparency and equal conditions for all participants. A novel avenue of collaboration among the countries is the Digital Silk Road project, focused on creating a fiber-optic infrastructure to bolster digital connectivity in the region.

Central Asian Geopolitics

Amidst the ongoing backdrop of Moscow and Beijing's escalating confrontations with Western powers, the recent meeting of Central Asian heads of state underscored a collective desire among these nations to forge a common front.

"In recent years, cooperation within the Central Asia Plus formats has significantly intensified, encompassing relationships with the EU, the USA, China, Russia, and the Middle East," diplomatically noted President Tokayev. "To maximize the benefits of these formats, we need to jointly fill them with high-quality content based on our national interests. It is important to speak with a common or maximally similar position to demonstrate our solidarity and unity to the global community."

Geopolitical dynamics have evolved considerably over the past year or more. Russia's military actions in Ukraine have triggered tighter sanctions against Moscow, while tensions between the United States and China have reached unprecedented levels. Consequently, all five Central Asian states find themselves caught in the crosswinds of global turbulence.

The international community's attention on Central Asian countries has steadily grown, with five summits at various levels involving the region's nations held over the past year. These summits spanned USA-Central Asia Foreign Ministers in Astana, China-Central Asia in Xi'an, EU-Central Asia Heads of Government in Almaty, and Gulf States-Central Asia in Jeddah.

In just a few days, Central Asian leaders will convene with U.S. President Joe Biden  in New York for the inaugural summit in the "C5+1" format, held within the context of the 78th UN General Assembly. What sets this meeting apart is that it marks the first time heads of state are gathering at the invitation of the world's most influential nation. This preliminary observation suggests the discussions will center on long-term strategic matters.

This summit carries significant weight in terms of the international positioning of both the region as a whole and its individual countries within an ever-evolving and conflict-ridden world. The era of Central Asian states enjoying relative freedom in choosing their foreign policy orientation based on multipolarity is drawing to a close. The upheavals in global politics, catalyzed by challenges to the established world order, have direct implications for the international standing of Central Asian nations. In the context of deepening international rivalries along various fault lines, the United States anticipates greater clarity from Central Asian countries regarding their international stance.

In light of these complex geopolitical conditions, the Central Asian countries have achieved a consensus on developing a unified foreign policy stance, notwithstanding their internal regional issues. To construct a coherent position across various external vectors and initiatives, these nations will need to thoroughly assess their national and collective regional potentials while implementing a well-thought-out strategy of coordination and trust among themselves.

Recent trends in cooperation, particularly in the wake of the Ukraine conflict, indicate the emergence of a cohesive force in regional cooperation across political, security, economic, and logistical domains. Participants in the meeting have shown a noticeable enthusiasm for mutual coordination, expressing a keen interest in high-level consultations to expedite regional integration processes.

President Aliyev's proposal to host a regular meeting of heads of state within the framework of the UN's anniversary special program for the economies of Central Asia – SPECA, scheduled for November 14-16 in Baku, aligns with this regional trajectory. While the official agenda revolves around emissions inventories, it is evident that, considering the intricate landscape of regional and global geopolitics, the discussions will address critical issues facing the newly independent states.