A spark of new war in the South Caucasus?

In a wake of tensions around the release of Ramil Safarov, Azerbaijani military officer on his return to Baku from a Hungarian prison, Washington analysts and officials are deeply worried that Baku and Yerevan could be set for another flare-up, sparking a new war in the South Caucasus, TURAN’s Washington DC correspondent reports.

The tensions rose sharply around a peaceful settlement of the long-running Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict last week, after Azerbaijan's pardoning of Lt. Safarov.

International negotiators say the move “has harmed attempts to establish peace between the countries”. A White House statement on Friday said that President Obama was “deeply concerned” by the pardon, and that the action was “contrary to ongoing efforts to reduce regional tensions and promote reconciliation.

In an interview with TURAN’s correspondent Jorge Benitez, Director of NATO Source and Senior Fellow for Transatlantic Security at the Washington-DC based Atlantic Council, explains the western reactions on Safarov release and the possible scenarios.

Mr. Benitez specializes in NATO and transatlantic relations, European politics, and US national security. Previously he served as Assistant for Alliance Issues to the Director of NATO Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He has also served as a specialist in international security for the Department of State and the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis.

Question: How do you think the US Administration’s concern should be read both in Baku and

Yerevan?

Answer: Armenia and Azerbaijan should both note that the United States considers this a very serious issue and it received prompt attention from our highest policymakers. Very few issues provoke a direct statement from the White House and rarely has a Presidential response been so swift. In addition to the President’s concern, the State Department also issued a statement that the US was “extremely troubled by the news that the President of Azerbaijan pardoned Azerbaijani army officer Ramil Safarov.”

Question: In their part, Baku officials blame the West in interfering into its bilateral relations with Hungary and overreacting on the move. How should such extraditions and further events after them ideally develop?

Answer; Not just “the West,” but the entire international community should be concerned and speak out when a confessed and convicted killer is extradited and released in such a provocative manner. In addition to the US; the EU, OSCE, and Russia have also criticized the behavior of Azerbaijan in pardoning Safarov.

Furthermore, according to the Hungarian government, Azerbaijan broke its promise that Safarov would continue to serve his full sentence. If the government of Azerbaijan draws so much attention to breaking its agreement with Hungary, this should make other nations more reluctant to make agreements with Baku.

Question: There have been periodical similar tensions in the region over the time – if someone is a hero for Azeris, he is an enemy for Armenians, and vice versa. The two nations almost hate each- other. Is it possible that the two nations put hate aside and work things out?

Answer: It is possible for Azerbaijan and Armenia to resolve their differences peacefully, but it will take time and effort. In this context, the government of Azerbaijan is most responsible for increasing international tensions and the possibility of conflict. The government of Azerbaijan should make an effort for reconciliation and peace that is proportional to the public praise and rewards it has showered on Safarov.

Question: Sadly, these events [Safarov’s pardoning] are a big boost for radicals on both sides. Who does this situation fit the most: the governments, the radicals or someone else?

Answer: The Safarov affair benefits the radicals more than anyone else. It also fuels more ethnic hatred and adds new converts to the views of the radicals.

By initiating this much publicized international crisis, the leaders of Azerbaijan have taken a dangerous step that will, unfortunately, be difficult to prevent from escalating because Baku has empowered radicals on both sides.

Question: Do you think the resumption of armed hostilities is a serious threat in the region?

Answer: The resumption of armed hostilities was already a serious threat in this region and the Safarov affair has made it even more perilous. For some time now, both Azerbaijan and Armenia have been increasing their military capabilities.

In 2010, Azerbaijan boasted that it had increased its production of military equipment and weapons by 260%. In that same year, Azerbaijan spent more on its armed forces, $3 billion, than Armenia spent on its entire national budget. On its part, Armenia has gained advanced Russian military equipment, such as the S-300 air defense system. Yerevan has also provided a military base to Moscow where it is hosting 5,000 Russian troops.

The simmering impatience over the lack of a long term resolution for the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and persistent friction between Baku and Yerevan, combined with the escalating arms race in the region, already made the South Caucasus one of the world’s hot-spots most likely to erupt into conflict. The seriousness and vulgarity of the Safarov affair only increases the likelihood of armed hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Question: Is there any change in the negotiating format that might yield to a better outcome?

Answer: The problem is not the negotiating format. The Safarov affair reveals that the problem is the gap between the objectives of the Azerbaijan and Armenia; and their choice of tactics to achieve their goals.

Question: What, if anything, could the West do to facilitate a resolution?

Answer: The West and all of the international community need to act together to decrease tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Acting together, the international community has enough diplomatic and economic leverage to convince Baku and Yerevan to decrease measures that fuel tensions between them and to make healthy progress on the unresolved issues in the region.

If the international community fails to act together, the situation in the South Caucasus will only get worse and may even spark a new war.

Alakbar Raufoglu

Washington DC

09/05/2012