Azerbaijan already has the alliance it needs: An alliance with Turkey and Israel

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-Arastun bey, MP Zahid Oruj, Chairman of the Board of the Center for Social Research, published two articles in a row, in fact, the issues raised in that article are issues to be discussed. The articles "The Future Military-Political Fate of the Caucasus: The Aliyev-Putin agreement" and "Turkey, Azerbaijan, Russia in a Single Trench: A Plan to Redistribute Yerevan" talk about Azerbaijan-Russia, Turkey-Azerbaijan-Russia cooperation. What messages do you think Zahid Oruj sends to whom with these articles?

-If we call everything by its name, we can call the two articles you mentioned "the new manifesto of pro-Russians" or "the dreams of the 5th column". Without drawing special attention to the style of writing or translation of the articles, I can say that both articles show the agony of attempts to keep Azerbaijan under Russian influence or slavery. The time for their publication was not chosen at random. I mean the attack of the Armenian-Russian pair in the direction of Tovuz. More precisely, the moment of the start of the hybrid war against Azerbaijan. In the meantime, I would like to note that one of the important elements of hybrid war is information war and provocations. The messages in the articles are mainly addressed to the society, to be more precise, to its socio-political activists, and this is not accidental. Russia's latest attack on Azerbaijan as part of its global plans for the Middle East has failed and, in fact, has strengthened anti-Russian sentiment in Azerbaijani society. I would like to point out that Armenia should have played only a mediating role in this issue, but it either failed or did not want to. Russia not only lost public opinion in Azerbaijan but also gave impetus to the further strengthening of the Azerbaijani-Turkish military-political union. Such a format and dynamics, it seems, was neither provided for in the Kremlin's recipes at all nor was taken seriously. To be honest, The idea of ​​a Turkish-Azerbaijani-Russian trio seems to be a bit of a figment of the imagination; however, often exaggerating Russia's power, either openly or subtitled, in the articles can be seen as a threat attempt. We already have the trio we need, and thanks to it, today Azerbaijan looks more confident and much more confident than it was on the eve of the Tovuz provocation. I mean the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Israel trio. Both Turkey and Israel have repeatedly proved their support for Azerbaijan throughout the history of our country's independence. During the recent events I mentioned, they demonstrated this in the most open and decisive way. We need such allies. As for alleged claims that Russia is against Armenia, I think the chances of confusing public opinion with such simple propaganda are zero. Everyone in Azerbaijan now knows what Russia's last two hundred years of Caucasus policy have cost us. This policy had not changed during the period of the Tsarist Empire, the USSR, and will never change during the period of the modern Russian Federation. Presenting Russia's pressure on the Pashinyan government as hostility to Armenia stems from either a lack of understanding of the events or a deliberate misinterpretation of them. I think it stems more from the latter.

- Do you think that this analysis is the result of Zahid Oruj himself, or do the authorities share the same views with Zahid Oruj?

-In my opinion, in order to answer your question, we must first clarify who we mean by the authorities. The Azerbaijani government is currently in the process of internal reconstruction, and it seems that the process is not going as smoothly as expected. This had to be expected because the different wings of the ruling hierarchy in the country had different external ties, and they still exist today. Undoubtedly, the weakening of the positions of some government groups in the process of reconstruction worries not only themselves but also their foreign "partners". Now, if we look at two points, the answer to your question, as they say, will come naturally. The first point is the well-known scandalous article of the President of ANAS, Mr. Ramiz Mehdiyev, after the first article of Zahid muallim, and the second point is the joint Azerbaijani-Turkish military exercises that started after the battles of Tovuz. I am sure that there is no doubt that Mr. Mehdiyev's messages were addressed to Ilham Aliyev, who gave the green light to military exercises of Azerbaijan with a friend and ally of Turkey.

-Did Russia really turn its back on Armenia and turn its face to Azerbaijan, as the articles emphasize? Can Azerbaijan really use this situation to liberate Karabakh?

-I have already touched upon this issue and I repeat that Russia will never turn its back on Armenia and turn its face to Azerbaijan. Armenia is an important tool in Russia's policy in the Caucasus, Turkey, and the Middle East, and this status will never change. Its goal is to once again ignite the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict and deploy troops to the region under the guise of peacekeeping, thereby achieving at least three goals: To weaken Azerbaijan, to change the government in Armenia, to open a land route to the Middle East by deploying troops to the region and to ensure its functioning. In this case, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be frozen indefinitely. Only under these conditions, Russia can gain reliable access to the Middle East and become a sole voice in the South Caucasus. For us, this would mean both a restriction of sovereignty and dependence on Russia for an indefinite period.

-The second article says: "Baku needs the TAR (Turkey-Azerbaijan-Russia) union. That is, to coordinate the interests of the three countries and implement a coordinated policy." Is it possible to see these three countries in one union? Because in recent history, we have witnessed the rapprochement of Turkey and Russia from time to time, and then the strained relations. Do you think such an alliance can happen and what are the consequences?

-I am also interested in how the authors of the idea want to bring together the two regional powers, which are confronting in Libya, Syria, the Mediterranean, and partly in the Black Sea region, in Azerbaijan? At least today I consider such a construction impossible. It can only be a product of imagination, and I think it is also aimed at manipulating the sensitive attitude towards Turkey in Azerbaijani society. As I said earlier, Azerbaijan already has the alliance it needs: An alliance with Turkey and Israel. I'm sure this trio is just a small part of the iceberg. Today, neither Israel nor Turkey needs Russia to have a say in the Middle East and influence the region, and for preventing it, they need to protect Azerbaijan. This is a common vital interest that unites us.

-In general, what direction should Azerbaijan choose for its future? Is the Russian side more reliable or the West more promising?

-I think I have already answered your question, albeit indirectly. Russia has never been and will never be our partner. On the other hand, today Azerbaijan's membership in NATO is neither realistic nor on the agenda. On the contrary, such an integration attempt in the already very complex geography in which we are located would increase the threats to our country. We need to direct the foreign policy vector mainly towards Turkey and Israel while maintaining normal bilateral relations with all neighbors. This means the West, both militarily and socio-economically. We have seen what Russia can give us for more than 200 years, and we do not need another 200 years to understand this. But the West, in turn, must build a multifaceted policy of Azerbaijan and not pursue it only in the interests of security. It must fully support Azerbaijan to become a free, democratic, legal, and modern state. Only a state with such a model can be a reliable, stable, and strong partner. This is our path to the future. It's not an easy path, but I don't see an alternative. I am sure that the absolute majority of Azerbaijanis also want to live in such a state.