Belarus ' tests will begin after the elections on August 9

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- Zardusht bey, some processes have been taking place in post-Soviet countries recently. For example, tensions on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, thousands of actions in some regions of Russia, etc. Many analysts liken the processes in the post-Soviet countries to those in the last years of the USSR. Where can the processes lead this time?

- If we consider the historical landscape, we will see that it is a logical continuation of various stages of certain historical processes. The so-called friendship and unity of the peoples of the Soviet Union collapsed because of the deep-rooted destructive processes within it. And the ruling elites could not respond to these processes. Because their level of thinking was very low. They could not find answers to the complex questions posed to the ruling classes and nations by these historical processes. Because they were thinking only of their own interests. They did not think about the destiny and future of nations. There were 1-2 people among them who thought about their people. For example, Nazarbayev and Lukashenko thought about the future of their people. Of course, these people were also authoritarian. How could the democrats come to the USSR? It has not been seen before and nothing is known about it. At that time, these societies did not have a democratic tradition, institution, and the concept of democracy in general. At that time, the leaders who thought about the state and the nation were, of course, authoritarian. Some authoritarian leaders only wanted to deceive people and rob their pockets. These processes were going on before our eyes. Now the CIS is collapsing as a continuation of those historical processes. The Eurasian Union has begun to collapse. Because these people do not have the thinking to find a solution to the real problems of society. Western democracies have a tradition of recommendation, consultation, free listening and discussion of all issues. Even they sometimes face a crisis. Many problems cannot be solved. Not only the CIS countries but also the developed countries of the West are not insured against the global crisis that is currently sweeping the world.

- You say that the CIS and the Eurasian Union may collapse as a continuation of historical processes. However, some analysts say that at the end of these processes, some changes may occur in some post-Soviet countries. For example, this time Russia may collapse, and in some post-Soviet countries, there may be a change of government or a change in the map. Is this possible?

-Yes. The processes that destroyed the USSR are repeated in Russia. I am not the only one who says this, as many very powerful Russian political scientists, sociologists, and historians say. Centrifugal tendencies have intensified in the country. The desire for independence has strengthened in the regions. In Khabarovsk, they shout "Moscow, beat it!", "Khabarovsk is our province!". What do these slogans mean? That is, there are no All-Russian slogans in these actions. Speaking at the Russian Federation Council, the Khabarovsk governor said: “Khabarovsk Krai generates $ 220 billion a year. But the budget of Khabarovsk Krai is $ 22 billion. You have passed laws in the center that all the income of the province goes to Moscow.” That’s why Khabarovsk shouts, "Moscow, beat it!". Moscow's insatiable leadership is strengthening in this way.

Russia is constantly losing its allies. First, they destroyed the socialist countries, then they sold them. Then they sold the USSR itself. Now they are selling Russia. A man feels pity for the Russian people now. All scientists fled from the country. The industry is in decline. State policy is based on lies. By the way, we have the same situation.

The Helsinki Final Act, signed in 1977, stated that borders were inviolable. Then the historical processes began, the borders in Europe changed. The USSR, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia collapsed. Azerbaijan's borders have changed de facto. Armenia has occupied Azerbaijani lands. Now I ask a question. What is needed for the strength of a state? First of all, all nations and ethnic minorities living in that state must consider that state as their motherland. In our country, the Special Service Bodies arrest a blogger who promotes the culture of a national minority because he/she promotes the culture of an ethnic group. After all, the culture of that national minority is an integral part of the culture of our people. They do this for two reasons. The first reason is that those who do so are ignorant. The second reason is that Special Service Bodies from Moscow has given instruction to divide Azerbaijan, to revolutionize national minorities against the Azerbaijani state. For this purpose, the Special Service Bodies of Azerbaijan, with the instructions of their masters in Moscow, arrest representatives of national minorities who promote their national culture. This is called hostility. Just as Soviet leaders incited ethnic conflict, so it is now. The Karabakh conflict was also instigated by the Moscow Central Committee, the KGB, and the army. From the beginning to the end, Moscow controlled the Karabakh conflict. And now Moscow wants to create hotbeds of conflict in Azerbaijan at the hands of Special Service Bodies. Is it hard to understand? Do they not understand that when such rights of Azerbaijani citizens are violated, these people will rise up against the state? Maybe they understand. They simply obey the orders of Moscow for the sake of their ranks, they oppose their people and their homeland.

- The forecasters of the above-mentioned issues give more examples of Belarus, which is currently in the spotlight. The whole world is focused on the August 9 presidential election in Belarus. For the first time, a serious opposition candidate to Lukashenko has emerged in Belarus. For the first time, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a 37-year-old housewife, was able to unite the entire opposition. What are your expectations from this process?

- Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and the combined forces around her will get 25-30 percent of the vote. That is a fact. Sociological surveys also show this. First of all, because the candidate is a weak candidate. Of course, Lukashenko has exceeded all standards. He slandered and arrested his main rivals. All authoritarian leaders do so. They did the same in Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia. But it should also be noted that Lukashenko has a large social base. He is a man who has maintained the industrial, scientific, and technical potential of Belarus. During the independence of Azerbaijan, all factories were closed, all engineers turned to be salesmen but the ruling class became billionaires. This did not happen in Belarus. There are no billionaires there. There are relatively wealthy people. And large industrial enterprises continued to operate as before. Lukashenko has managed to keep all businesses afloat and unemployment has always been low. It does not benefit the oligarchs, those who want to fill their pockets and sell everything. But it must also be said that Lukashenko is an authoritarian. The authoritarianism of political leaders in the post-Soviet area was objectively due to the lack of democratic potential in society. They did not know what democracy is. Democracy has procedures, benefits, institutions. Democracy is misunderstood in such countries. Now Belarus faces a very difficult test. Undoubtedly, there is the European Union, Western institutions, and the Russian factor against Lukashenko. Because Lukashenko's superiority and disobedience angered Putin. And he wants to overthrow Lukashenko at any cost. It is no coincidence that Wagner's warriors also went there. But Lukashenko clung to power. He says he will not give his country to them. After the election, Belarus is likely to have "Maidan" attempts and military coup attempts. Serious analysts in Belarus say Lukashenko will win on August 9 but it is likely that there will be network protests later. That is, not gathering and destroying some places, but holding rallies in different places. And it is possible that various provocative forces will start shedding blood in order to portray Lukashenko as a leader who came to power illegally and caused bloodshed. This process is called delimitation.

- This process in Belarus has also contributed to creating tension in relations between this country and Russia. Lukashenko has accused 33 members of a Russian private mercenary group of a private military company (PMC) in Minsk of supporting the opposition in the upcoming presidential election. It is no secret that tension in relations between Moscow and Minsk have been created since 2014 when Belarus had to strike a balance between Russia and the West, and between Kyiv and Moscow. Lukashenko now accuses Moscow of backing the opposition candidate. Is it possible for Russia to easily give up Lukashenko, whom it has protected and supported for years?

- First of all, Russia has not protected him. When Lukashenko was elected president, Russia was involved in dividing and robbing the country. At that time, no post-Soviet space was remembered. But after Lukashenko's rise to power, Russia saw that his only ally in the post-Soviet space was Belarus. They began to approach and even signed an agreement on a union state. But later, Russia also wanted to keep Belarus dependent on it. Belarus wanted Russia, as a union state, to sell its oil fields to Belarus on the same terms it sells to foreigners so that it could be a partner or owner of any oil field. But Russia did not agree, offering cheaper oil instead of the oil field. Then Russia began to play with the price of oil it sold to Belarus. He often raised and lowered the price of oil he sold to Belarus. At the end of each year, there was a price scandal between Russia and Belarus. In the end, things went awry. Lukashenko was no longer talking about brotherhood but about partnership. Probably, they will soon switch from partnership to hostility. Because Russia is an enemy of Ukraine and Georgia. Relations with Armenia are deteriorating. Although Armenia is an outpost of Russia, there is no question of independence. Russia's relations with Azerbaijan are tense despite the seeming situation. Russia will never be able to ally with anyone with this policy. Those who rule this state have no idea of ​​statehood. They confuse politics with intrigue.

- Analysts are considering a variety of scenarios based on the results of the Belarusian elections, including Russia's military intervention, and say that what happened with Ukraine in 2014 could happen in Belarus as well. Can Russia intervene militarily in Belarus?

- Russia’s military intervention seems impossible. If this happens, it will be strongly welcomed by the Belarusian army. Lukashenko has repeatedly said that we are not Ukraine. The Ukrainian army was the second strongest army at the time of the collapse of the USSR. Maybe it was the first strongest one. But Ukrainian leaders later weakened the army. But this did not happen in Belarus. Lukashenko has kept the army as it was in the Soviet era and is still developing it. The Belarusian army is able to defend the country. But there is another issue. Belarus has open borders with Russia and is a union state. It is said that many provocateurs came there. They are waiting for the right time. There is no doubt that Lukashenko will win the election. He has a loyal electorate of more than 50 percent. Because everyone knows that although he is authoritarian, he is not a thief, he does not steal the wealth of the people. Compared to many post-Soviet countries, Lukashenko has successfully ruled Belarus. Most likely, very serious processes will begin at the end of the voting on the 9th of the month. Let's see if Lukashenko will be able to keep control.