Citizens of Transnistria do not understand what the sanction is

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- Mr. Kuzmin, what is the current political and socio-psychological situation in Transnistria? What do Pridnestrovians think about the war between Russia and Ukraine? Do they condemn or justify Russian aggression against Ukraine?

- Major local media and the Transnistrian authorities are trying to remain neutral in this situation. Leading media do not report on the fighting in Ukraine at all. They write and shoot videos only about how residents and authorities help refugees. The authorities call what is happening a “situation” or “events”, trying to help the same refugees. The socio-psychological situation is very controversial. On the one hand, Transnistria is a pro-Russian region. Of course, many of those who live here support Russia's actions simply because supporting Russia is a tradition. So, for example, on March 6, in the center of Tiraspol, a rally in support of Putin, Shoigu and the Russian army was held in the center of Tiraspol, despite the fact that the authorities (Ministry of Internal Affairs of the PMR) urged citizens not to come to it. As far as I understand, the rally was initiated by the local opposition public in Viber, and was supported by the Communist Party of Transnistria. He mainly attracted older people - the electorate of the same communist party, in fact, which, according to my feelings, does not enjoy wide support of the population (in Pridnestrovie, there are practically no open sociological studies in the field of politics, so I cannot support my feelings with data).

At the same time, about a week ago, some citizens began to actively buy essential goods in stores: salt and vegetable oil, for example. There is no shortage as far as I can see. It was quickly replenished, but the very fact of such a stir also says a lot about the mood of a part of the population.

At the same time, there are those who do not support everything that Russia is doing in Ukraine. For example, on February 28, 2 single pickets with posters “No to war” took place on the Tiraspol square. Their participants are girls 20-25 years old. One of them said in a conversation that about 30-35 people reacted to her poster, while only 4 of them can be called unambiguously negative reactions.

It is very difficult to say how many people support Russia's actions now, how many support Ukraine, and how many simply do not understand what is happening. Again, we do not conduct polls on such topics and it is very difficult to say something specific. In general, it seems to me that the majority are on the side of Russia (conditional 60%), and the rest are either on the side of Ukraine, or simply do not understand and are not ready to understand what is happening (for example, some of my acquaintances consider both Russia and Ukraine to be “bad” in this situation, thus trying not to take sides). At the same time, I would use the age of 35-40 years as a separator: the younger the person, the more likely he will support Ukraine, and vice versa - the older, the higher the likelihood that his sympathies are on the side of Russia.

-The West has repeatedly imposed political and economic sanctions against Russia in connection with its war with Ukraine. As a result of these sanctions, the value of the Russian ruble is falling and inflation is rising. Of course, all this has a negative impact on the unrecognized republics under the auspices of Russia and will continue to do so. How do the residents of the Dniester assess what happened? Are they dissatisfied with the deterioration of the social situation? In other words, is there dissatisfaction?

- I would not say that the people of Transnistria generally understand the essence of the sanctions and how they will affect Russia. Sanctions are something "bad". This is an "economic war against Russia." I highly doubt that the average resident of Transnistria understands that Taiwan has refused to supply chips to Russia, and consequently, the production of Russian Elbrus processors will stop, therefore, it will be more difficult to make up for the shortage of foreign equipment with our own, which may lead to further difficulties in the development of those industries for which it is it is also important to exacerbate the economic lag in the future in general. And this is already fraught with weakness of the Russian ruble. People do not build these chains. If we talk about simpler things, for example, the mass refusal of global Western brands to work with the Russian Federation, then we do not feel this. VISA and MasterCard cards have not been working with us for several years.

In my opinion, there are at least three important things that can have an impact: food prices, Russian pensions, and the possibility of receiving money transfers.

With the transfer of money transfers, everything is in order so far. Products start to rise in price on the sly. At least those that were transported through the territory of Ukraine. It was more profitable to receive Russian pensions than Pridnestrovian ones (about 220 thousand Russian citizens live in Transdniestria; not all of them are pensioners, of course, but many of them, I can’t say exactly how much they receive a Russian pension, but somewhere I met a figure of about 30 thousand people , if I am not mistaken). With the fall of the Russian ruble, the income of some pensioners fell first of all. Therefore, Pridnestrovian President Vadim Krasnoselsky submitted a draft law to the Supreme Council (Pridnestrovian parliament), according to which pensioners will be covered from monetary losses due to the fall of the ruble from the PMR budget: . The amount of the additional payment will be such that the size of the Russian pension is not lower than the pension assigned to a specific recipient in Transdniestria,” says Vadim Krasnoselsky’s Telegram channel.

Our authorities remain neutral and try to keep the population calm: they do not report the situation, carry out targeted changes in the economy, seek to replenish the goods that people bought on emotions, cover at least part of pensions in Russian rubles. At the same time, very little time has passed since the beginning of the conflict. I would not say that the deterioration of the social situation is felt clearly enough to give rise to a noticeable mass of dissatisfied. In other words, I do not yet see an increase in dissatisfaction with the socio-economic situation.

-President of Moldova Maia Sandu called on Russia to withdraw its troops from Transnistria. In addition, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) recognized that the Russian Federation occupied a part of the territory of Moldova - Transnistria. What is the reaction to this news? How do they react to the opinion of the President of Moldova? Do the inhabitants of Transnistria want the withdrawal of Russian troops?

- For some people who actively follow the news agenda, using other than local and/or Russian media, this has caused concern. Some were very indifferent to it. Although there are those who call the PACE resolution "an open incitement of nationalist hawks to a military attack on the PMR" (Deputy of the Supreme Council of the PMR A. Safonov) and "an application for the destruction of the entire 5 + 2 negotiation format", those who perceive all this as the formality seems to be more.

The fact that "there will be no consequences of this decision," says political scientist A. Korinenko from Chisinau. That something terrible should not be expected, says the former head of the PMR Foreign Ministry V. Yastrebchak, who calls the resolution a formality and hopes for the same attitude towards it from "those who are really involved in politics." Ex-Minister of Reintegration of the Republic of Moldova A. Flyanke also calls it “just a declaration”. The ex-representative of Moldova to the UN and the Council of Europe, A. Tulbure, does not believe in tangible influence either.

In a statement by the PMR Foreign Ministry, the resolution is called "having no practical prospects." N. Popescu, head of the MFAEI of the Republic of Moldova, reservedly described it as “the opinion of the parliamentarians [...] of the countries” and declared the importance of the dialogue, calling it “the only way”. M. Sandu and V. Krasnoselsky similarly expressed the high significance of the negotiations (with the only difference that she said about the “withdrawal of Russian troops”, and he “reminded that it was Russian peacekeepers who stopped the bloodshed of 1992,” writes the NP).

On the opinion of the President of Moldova on the withdrawal of Russian troops, our authorities usually react in the same way: they say that this undermines security. This is a long practice of political relations between the two banks of the Dniester, and this statement by Mrs. Sandu has not introduced anything new. It is part of the usual discourse in Moldova, and the reaction to it from the Pridnestrovian authorities is just as usual and expected.

Whether the inhabitants of Transnistria want the withdrawal of the Russian military or not is very difficult to say. You understand, Transnistria is a pro-Russian region. We have the Russian flag equated to the state. In the Criminal Code of the PMR there is an article 278-3, which is called "On the denial of the positive role of the peacekeeping mission of the Russian Federation in the PMR." We have monuments to Russian and Soviet soldiers. The most important historical event for modern Transnistria is the conflict with Moldova in 1992, and the Russian military are the heroes of this conflict who stopped it. Moreover, it is very difficult to perceive the Russian military as “Russian”, because there are residents of Transnistria who have Russian citizenship. It is very difficult to imagine that with all of the above, some more or less significant part of the population would be in favor of the withdrawal of the Russian military. I do not think that there will be more than 10% of such people, but, I repeat, we do not have sociological data, and this figure should be treated with a certain degree of skepticism, to put it mildly.

-We know that 60% of the population of Transnistria are Russians and Ukrainians. If there is a poll or a referendum now, what will the majority think? Choose independence, live under the influence of Russia (as it is now), remain a territory of Moldova (as before), join Russia or join Ukraine?

-That's a very difficult question. And I will repeat once again that we do not have clear and relevant sociological data on this matter. We can only guess.

The last time a referendum on a similar issue was held in 2006. It was visited by about 80% of the adult population, 97% of which voted for the independence of the PMR and subsequent accession to Russia. Only slightly more than 3% were in favor of unification with Moldova.

More than 15 years have passed since that moment, and it is rather difficult to say what picture is now. If before the war in Ukraine in Transnistria the local authorities had organized a referendum on joining Moldova, I doubt very much that more than 10% of those who attended the referendum would have voted “For”. This is the maximum, from my point of view (especially given that older people have more pro-Russian sentiments, and they also take part in voting more often, as world practice shows, while young people not only go to the polls less often (world trend) , but also more often leave Transnistria (local specificity)).

The issue of accession to Moldova is very complex. It is not only about Russia, it is also about Moldova itself, about the 1992 conflict, which is much talked about in our media, about the language, about the image of Moldova in the local media, and so on. As for joining Ukraine, at the moment such an option is not at all considered in society, as far as I can tell, and there would be very few supporters of such an option, as it seems to me.

I think the war in Ukraine will change the picture (for example, it will reduce the number of supporters of the pro-Russian vector), but I can’t say how much right now.

-And, finally, how can the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war affect the fate of Transnistria?

- There can be a lot of scenarios. Of course, it affects who wins and by what margin. This geopolitical factor will depend on local specifics: the interests of the elites, economic and geographical features, the political preferences of the population, the relations of Moldova and Transnistria with neighboring countries and blocs, and so on. If you wish, you can come up with a scenario in which Transnistria will become part of Moldova in 5-10 years, or you can state the option in which it will become part of the Russian Federation. The degree of uncertainty is still high and it is too early to speak confidently about any specific scenario.

But based on how I imagine the situation on the evening of March 19, I can say that it seems that Russia will lose this war, if not militarily, then economically. If so, then the Transnistrian political elite may face complications in the future, because the support in the form of the Russian Federation will become less reliable.

Kamran Mahmudov