Europeans Can Boycott US Sanctions against Iran

- Azer Bey, as you know, the United States has refused of the nuclear treaty signed with Iran. However after that the European Union declared that it did not intend to sever the nuclear treaty with Tehran. There is a kind of triangle: US - IRI - European Union. In your opinion, in what direction can the events develop?

- Even before this step of Washington, the European countries, i.e. France, Germany and Great Britain, which signed this agreement, declared they would not leave it. Their common opinion is that the 2012 agreement was a certain beginning, and in the future it would be possible to add points to it. And without this deal Iran would continue its nuclear program and within the next year it would already possess nuclear weapons. This document managed to stop the implementation of Tehran's nuclear program and allow international observers to monitor and control Iran's nuclear facilities. Therefore, the countries of Europe and Russia will not withdraw from the deal. It is very likely that China will also be in solidarity with them in this matter. As for Iran's position, it will act in accordance with the position of the European countries: if they remain faithful to the treaty, then Tehran will do likewise. In this case, the contradictions between Washington and Brussels will be further deepened. On the one hand, the US will restore the old sanctions and even impose new ones against the IRI. And on the other hand, the main European countries not only will not join these sanctions, but will even block them.

- The position of Russia on this issue is also of interest. Will Moscow take Iran"s side if Iran remains in the agreement? Or will it maintain its previous position due to the fact that Tehran signed an agreement with the European Union countries?

- Russia on this issue will also be in solidarity with Europe. This gives grounds to say that the decision of US President Trump will put an end to the common policy of the West regarding Iran. I would even say that it can have more unwelcome ramifications for Trump. So, if the contradictions between the US and Europe continue to deepen, then the main European countries may refuse to apply sanctions initiated by Washington to Russia, because for many countries of the Old World, first of all, for Germany, these sanctions result in economic losses.

- If the relations between Washington and Tehran worsen, what consequences may this have for the region?

- This decision is generally difficult to understand. For example, Trump has always been against the application of sanctions to Russia, although Russia actively supports the Assad regime in Syria and it has directly invaded the region. It has also annexed the Crimea, which belongs to Ukraine, and through the Donbas factor it still meddles in the processes taking place in Ukraine. The Kremlin interfered in the elections in the US and in many other countries and organized cyber attacks. Nevertheless, Trump outraged by Iran's active policy in the Middle East is breaking the agreement signed with this country. This step on the one hand pushes Tehran towards closer cooperation with Russia, and on the other hand, it increases the likelihood of an increase in oil prices in the world market, which is also beneficial to Russia. That is, this decision will lead to Iran's implementation of a more active policy in the South Caucasus and the Middle East region and to an increase in the activity and aggressiveness of conservative political groups in that country.

- What will be the policy of official Baku if the relations between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran worsen? That is, can the Azerbaijani authorities try to bargain for themselves in this situation, when on one side there is neighbor Iran, and on the other there is the US hegemony? Do you think Azerbaijan will prefer such a policy or it will ignore the US aspirations?

- It is very likely that the country's leadership will try to stay away from these processes and maintain its former neutrality. On the other hand, what does it mean for the US to withdraw from the agreement with Iran? It is an opportunity at the first stage to restore the old sanctions, then to introduce new ones, and as the last step - to carry out a military invasion into Iran. But this is possible in the event that Tehran continues its nuclear program and will come close to creating nuclear weapons. But all this can only be done by Iran if the other countries that signed the agreement with Iran, first of all, the European three (Britain, France and Germany) also withdraw from the agreement.

- In general, when there are so many new processes in the world, what steps should be taken and what policy should Azerbaijan pursue to protect itself?

- Azerbaijan should win as many friends and allies as possible. It should conduct a policy of good neighborliness and economic cooperation with respect to its neighbors. It should not enter military coalitions that could threaten its neighbors. Along with this, we should cooperate and conclude agreements in the military and political sphere with our strategic allies, first of all, with Turkey against any aggressive neighbors.

- Will Trump's latest step increase the prestige of the US worldwide or will it strike another blow to his own prestige in the eyes of voters and in the world?

- I think Trump's decision will damage the reliability of the US in the world, because it will reduce the reliability of the agreements signed by the US and of its signature under any documents. In this regard, European countries have already begun to show serious concern. Even before that, the withdrawal of Trump from the agreements on steel and aluminum and the US withdrawal from the Paris agreement on climate caused serious concern and discontent of Europe. And as for the voters, all these steps are taken by Trump mainly with the goal of gaining the support of voters in the US, because voters pay attention to whether the steps taken in foreign policy have a positive impact on the country's economy and on the state of their finance. And Trump knows it well. By the way, the main reason for the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is economic. But if, as a result of Trump's decisions, a great war breaks out, or as a result, Iran becomes the owner of nuclear weapons, Trump will lose points in the USA.