Fatih Ceylan: "It can be expected that Ukraine will receive assistance on the basis of bilateral agreements"

Former Permanent Representative of Turkey to NATO, retired Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Fatih Ceylan, told Turan News Agency about the current situation.

"It would be a realistic approach not to assume that Russian peacekeepers will leave Azerbaijan in the medium term"

Turan: As the crisis between Russia and Ukraine continues, one of the institutions that Moscow blames is NATO: Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov said, "Looking at Yugoslavia, Libya, and Afghanistan, we see that NATO is not dealing with peace issues." Can you state your opinions about this?

Ceylan: In this interview with Mr. Lavrov, there are allegations that do not suit a very experienced diplomat. It is possible to predict the situation of our Bosnian brothers without NATO intervention. In the same way, would it be possible for Albanians living in Kosovo to escape the tragic situation they faced? We need to ask this question as well. Let the authorities of that country first clarify for themselves what role Russia has played or not played in resolving this crisis in the Balkans, and then try to blame others - Both logic and reality demand it. As for the Afghanistan issue: The undesirable traces left by the United States and NATO in Afghanistan and their departure from there should, of course, be criticized. On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that Russia, which today complains about the uncertainty created by the departure from Afghanistan, once worked and even cooperated with NATO in the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan. In any case, Mr. Lavrov should have a say in this matter too. NATO's intervention in Libya and its consequences are still controversial in the Western world. It is an accepted fact that interference has caused instability. All countries, including Russia, which are responsible for the continuing instability there, must first be held accountable in their consciences, and then they must then take the necessary steps in the framework of international cooperation. This will be a more correct approach.

Turan: The crisis between Russia and Ukraine is also on the agenda of the UN Security Council. How to read it in the language of diplomacy?

Ceylan: It is natural that the crisis over Ukraine will be discussed in the UN Security Council. On the other hand, in the current situation, it would be overly optimistic to expect the UN Security Council to resolve this issue, which is beyond the power of Ukraine. Reducing tensions and resolving the issue will depend on the progress of talks between the United States and Russia and NATO and Russia. In the current situation, it seems difficult to expect a solution to the problem in the short term.

Turan: Just as Turkey did not accept Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014, especially in the last two years, Russia claims that Turkey has sold weapons to Ukraine that could change the situation, especially UAVs. What would you say about this?

Ceylan: Turkey has taken the right position on the issue of Russian occupation and annexation of Crimea. Crimea has been occupied despite Russia's signed international treaty commitments. Therefore, at present, the occupation and annexation of Crimea are illegal and have no legal basis. The UAVs and UCAVs that Turkey sells to Ukraine are an important factor in becoming more powerful in possible battles. On the other hand, those who run Russia's military are well aware that these weapons have the power to change the balance, even in the most violent clashes. Therefore, in all cases, the Russian authorities will keep the sale of UAVs and UCAVs on the agenda against Turkey and will try to use it when the opportunity arises.

Turan: In your opinion, to what extent can NATO intervene in the crisis between Russia and Ukraine? Does NATO really have a plan to expand eastward?

Ceylan: Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Therefore, in accordance with the Washington Agreement signed for the establishment of NATO, it cannot use the article that forms the backbone of the Alliance. That article is intended to protect the security and territorial integrity of the member countries of the Alliance. Therefore, if we are talking about Russia's armed intervention in Ukraine, we will not talk about NATO's intervention in it. However, NATO member states can increase Ukraine's defense capabilities and provide political and economic support by signing bilateral agreements. The steps that have already been taken are a sign of this. In the current situation, it is not right to expect a consensus within the Alliance to allow Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. This issue may come up in the long run and with a possible agreement between Russia and the West. Therefore, we are talking about a very long marathon.

Turan: On the 44th day of the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, military operations were stopped suddenly, and the Russian armed forces not only took control of the border but also established their own management structure in an area of 4,000 square kilometers. According to the agreement, the Russian army must leave Azerbaijan in November 2025. How likely is this? What should be done for the Russian armed forces to leave Azerbaijan at that time?

Ceylan: It is a reality that Russia does not leave the regions, described as "frozen regions" or "regions that have been frozen", which it has created by intervention. After the 44-day war, Russia's main goal has emerged that it does not want to lose control of the situation in Karabakh after. We are not aware of the issues raised by the Russian and Azerbaijani authorities and reached an agreement before, during, and after the war. In other words, it is impossible to get information about the discussions of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia on the current situation. The announced document is the Moscow Agreement, which contains provisions that Turkey can support. The most important of these is the opening of communication corridors. Relative and real peace has been established in Karabakh. Transforming this into a long-term agreement is important for the region and should be supported. Even if lasting peace is achieved, not expecting Russia's "peacekeeping forces" to leave in the medium term is a requirement of caution. From this point of view, it is necessary to closely follow the steps taken by the Azerbaijani authorities in this area. As the process continues, it is possible that the details of the agreement reached between Azerbaijan and Russia will emerge.