Ksenia Kirillova: the level of awareness of the Russian protest is growing

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- Can the condemnation of Navalny and especially the mass protests be considered a landmark event, a milestone in the history of Russia in the struggle for democracy?

- This is definitely one of the milestones, but I would not say that the protests are fundamentally different from the previous ones. As before, these were peaceful actions, brutally suppressed by the security forces. Although, certain points here illustrate tendencies that are quite alarming for the Kremlin. For example, it is obvious that popular discontent is growing, and protest moods cover not only the capital, but also the regions - not massively, but in most regions of Russia. It is evident that the protest is becoming more decisive and conscious in the sense that most people no longer have illusions. People understand that they may face police violence, administrative penalties and even criminal sentences, they understand how much the repressive measures have intensified in recent years, and they still go to the streets (despite the frost and pandemic).

There were also schoolchildren at the protests, who responded to bright calls and did not fully understand what they were facing, but, contrary to the statements of the Russian media, there were not so many of them. For me personally, as a person who has consistently opposed any manipulative technologies all my life, it is very important that people take such actions consciously. In this case, the level of this awareness, in my opinion, was quite high: many left not so much because of Navalny, but because of their own dissatisfaction with the authorities, and they were quite adult people. However, even young people formulated their request quite adequately.

The harshness with which the security forces suppressed the protests became quite iconic. It was expected, but this does not negate the fact that in the process of "tightening the nuts" the power turned the thread one more turn. It is obvious that the regime is not only becoming even more repressive, but that it has absolutely nothing to offer its citizens, except for repression, a complete cleaning of the political field and ineffective simulacra that imitate civic activity or even opposition. However, in a situation where the problems are not resolved in essence, this opposition will only worsen.

- Will the sanctions be effective if they are adopted against Russia because of Navalny?

- According to the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, he does not expect that pressure on Russia will force the Kremlin to stop doing what the US does not like, but this will at least increase costs for Putin. Sanctions against specific individuals are quite capable of exacerbating the contradictions between the already warring Kremlin "towers" and forcing part of Putin's entourage to abandon him. This can be one of the instruments of pressure on the Kremlin, which, together with others, of course, makes life difficult for the Russian authorities.

- Are the authorities right when they state that the video about the palace for Putin is a fake, and will anything change if it turns out that this video is fake?

- Actually, for a long time, ardently and clumsily making excuses about this video, the authorities themselves indirectly confirmed that the presence of a palace is not a fake. Otherwise, evidence of falsification would have been presented immediately, without conflicting statements and the belated appointment of Arkady Rotenberg as his “beneficiary”. With all this, the palace has become only an external symbol of the oligarchic-corruption system, and the most tangible and obvious spit in the face of Russian society. However, people reacted to this spit just because deep down they understood perfectly well: regardless of the presence or absence of a specific palace, this is only from the results of systemic corruption and the predatory mafia approach of the ruling elite to governing the country. The fact that the elites are plundering the country and bathing in luxury is a well-known fact, and even the so-called “deep people” do not doubt it.

Yes, the film about the palace sharpened this feeling, especially among the youth. Lev Gudkov, director of the Levada Center, notes this, commenting on the latest polls, according to which the anti-rating of Putin among young people has tripled over the past three years. At the same time, Gudkov emphasizes that this trend has been developing over the past two years. Indeed, if we look at the data of the same Levada Center, published in early December, that is, even before the appearance of Navalny's investigation and before his return to Russia, we will see that Vladimir Putin's rating among young people has almost halved. Another thing is that against the backdrop of the return of Navalny and the replacement of his suspended sentence with a real one, the public's confidence in him is gradually growing - up to 5% in January 2021 from 3% in September 2020.

- How do similar events in Russia influence democratization in Azerbaijan? What do you expect in this direction in general in the region? Are Caucasus and Russia going to democracy or worsening authoritarianism? It is interesting to see how the return of Biden will affect the power of Aliyev and his team.

- Unfortunately, I do not know the internal situation in Azerbaijan so well, but I think that the trend established in 2020 will continue, that is, Azerbaijan will continue to get out of the influence of Russia and get closer to Turkey. Accordingly, this could seriously hit the clans and groups associated with Moscow. However, this does not mean the automatic democratization of Azerbaijan, at least because Turkey, unlike the modern administration of the United States, does not put forward demands to its allies to protect democracy and human rights, its position is more pragmatic.

Nevertheless, Turkey, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan began to build a joint regional security system back in 2020. It is not related directly to the internal political system, but some of the security issues directly concern this system. For example, corruption, which is the mainstay of post-Soviet authoritarianism. Corruption in the defense sphere is not only the theft of funds, but also leakage of important information; it is a breach in the general security system. With increasing Azerbaijan's role in the Caucasus increases, it is logical to assume that Baku's western allies will seek to eliminate such gaps.

Ksenia Kirillova is a political analyst, an expert in the analysis of processes in Russian society and propaganda mechanisms, a writer, lives in the United States, and publishes in the Jamestown Foundation and other analytical centers. She started her career in 2008 working in the Ural (Russian) press.