Kura dies

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- Rovshan bey, in recent days, the alarm bells are ringing about the drying up of the Kura River. What is happening? Is the Kura really drying up? If so, what are the reasons?

- The Kura is the largest river in the South Caucasus and has never dried up naturally. Only in 1949-1953, when the Mingachevir Reservoir was filled, a similar incident occurred in the Kura. According to witnesses at the time, the water level in the Kura was very low at that time. Today, of course, the Kura has not completely dried up, only the water has sharply decreased. The main reason for this is the management of water resources in the Kura and Araz rivers. At present, neither in Azerbaijan nor in neighboring countries is the management of water resources properly established. At present, there are too many water losses in Azerbaijan's irrigation systems. These water losses occur mainly from canals and when water is absorbed more than the soil needs during irrigation. Most of our major canals are soil canals. Water infiltrated from soil channels is both lost and salinizes the soil. Today in Azerbaijan, a method of irrigation called flooding is used. This is a very old method. 90-95 percent of water is lost during this irrigation. Second, our arable land has almost doubled in the last 20 years. While in 2000, a little more than 1 million hectares of land were cultivated in Azerbaijan, today the area of ​​cultivated lands is about 2 million hectares. This means that we have moved to extensive agriculture. That is, we plant more to get more products. In fact, instead of planting more land, it is better to increase crop yields per hectare.

On the other hand, the newly planted areas belong mainly to large farms. Of course, an increase in the new area means an increase in demand for water. All this happens at the expense of the Kura River. Therefore, in such a case, there is a sharp decline in water in the Kura. At present, large reservoirs have been built on the Kura River to provide water to irrigated fields. On the other hand, more water is pumped from the Kura through various pumps.

Another problem is the newly built reservoirs in Turkey. Previously, these reservoirs did not exist. Currently, three reservoirs are located in Turkey and one in Georgia. Currently, the Mtikvari Hydroelectric Power Station in Georgia is being replenished. All this affects the reduction of water in the Kura. There has been a lot of talks lately about a project in the Kura. But this has not yet been implemented. There is an idea to throw water into the Chorum River from a place called Beshikhkaya near Ardahan. The Corum River belongs to the Black Sea basin. This means that the water taken from the Kura will go to the Black Sea, not to the Caspian Sea. A huge reservoir named Yusifali is being built there, which will be the third tallest reservoir in the world. They plan to fill it at the expense of the Kura River. Georgia plans to build four more hydroelectric power station on the Kura River. All this has and will have a serious impact on the sharp decline in water levels in the Kura.

- What natural disasters and consequences can the drying of the Kura and other rivers lead to?

- We must distinguish between a dangerous event and a natural disaster. These are different things. A dangerous natural phenomenon is an event that is observed from time to time. For example, drought, flood. If the level of governance, the level of communities is sufficient to overcome this threat, this dangerous event will not turn into a disaster. We always have droughts in summer. If we are ready for a drought, that is, if our reservoirs are full, if there is reserve water for irrigation, the drought does not affect us. If we do not have them, if we are not ready, then the drought will turn into a natural disaster. Today, we can call the incident in the Kura a natural disaster. We no longer need to talk about disaster risk management, but crisis risk management. This is a crisis. As for the consequences of this crisis, there will be many. This will affect the natural vegetation around the Kura, dry up the Tugay forests, have a negative impact on agriculture, and is already doing so. Water shortages will reduce agricultural production, and there will be a constant shortage of drinking and domestic water. As a result, Azerbaijan may become more dependent on food imports in the future.

Migration may also occur in the area. This is called environmental migration. If there is a constant shortage of water in the villages along the Kura, the population will gradually move away. This process takes place over decades, not a year or two, and that is why we often do not see the migration. We unexpectedly see that the village is empty.

The reduction of water in the Kura will also have a negative impact on fishing. We must take into account that the Kura River has historically been a spawning ground for sturgeon. The mouth of the Kura was the place where the fishery had taken place. In the 60s and 70s of the last century, Azerbaijan annually produced more than 60,000 tons of sturgeon in these areas. Today, fish production has fallen sharply. In addition, there may be a drought. This will create problems for both drinking and irrigation water.

This is the first case in the Kura, but not the last. The roots of this problem are very deep. It is impossible to solve this in a short time.

- Recently, there have been complaints about water shortage in the Mughan region. Is this directly or indirectly related to the drying of the Kura?

- The Mughan region is located on the right bank of the Kura and Araz rivers. The Mil region is located to the right of the Kura, to the left of the Araz. Water shortage in the Mughan region is associated with the drying up of the Kura. The Upper Karabakh canal starts from the Mingachevir Reservoir and irrigates the Karabakh region. That canal flows into Araz. At the same time, the same amount of water comes out of the Araz River through the Sabir canal and irrigates Mughan. As the water level in the Karabakh canal decreases, the amount of water coming to the Araz decreases, so there is less water flowing to Mughan. This is one of the main reasons. Secondly, the water of the Araz River has decreased too. The reason for the decrease in the water of the Araz is also the reservoirs on it. There is also the Akhuryan Reservoir, built in the Soviet era and operated jointly by Armenia and Turkey. Turkey calls it the Arpachay Reservoir. There is a reservoir of Araz water junction in Nakhchivan. Then there is the newly commissioned Khodaafarin reservoir. There is also the Mil-Mughan Reservoir. Of course, these reservoirs also have water intakes and losses. In any case, the reservoir means the loss of water in the river. But again, as in other regions, the sown area has also increased in the Mughan region. 20 years ago, there were 470,000 hectares of arable land in the Araz economic region. Now, this figure is 780,000 hectares. It has almost doubled. Large farms have also appeared in Mughan and the water mainly goes there. It does not reach to the local population.

- In which areas is the situation with the drying of the Kura more pronounced? And why in those areas?

- The negative effects of the situation with the reduction of water in the Kura River are manifested mainly in the area below the Varvara dam, i.e. the area from there to Neftchala. That is, after Yevlakh district, it is more pronounced in Ujar, Zardab, Kurdamir districts, of the districts along the Kura, parts of Saatli, Sabirabad, Imishli districts close to the Kura, Neftchala, Salyan, Bilasuvar districts. There is a shortage of irrigation water in Zardab and Ujar, i.e. in the upper reaches of the Kura. In Neftchala and Salyan, there is a shortage of both irrigation water and drinking water. Drinking water is scarce because when the river level drops, the river drains the groundwater, and its water begins to become saline. It is said that the Caspian Sea flowed and went up 30 km along the Kura. This is agitational information. There is a water leak from the Caspian Sea to the mouth of the Kura. Because that part of the Kura was deepened 5-6 years ago due to floods. Water is leaking in those deep parts. It is as if they dug a well in the Kura. It also appears in the form of salt water.

By the way, the rich rivers of Azerbaijan, Tartar, Khachin, Gargar, and Hakari, remained in the occupied territories. Armenians block the Tartar River through the Sarsang Reservoir and prevent it from reaching Barda and Tartar districts. This reduces the water in the Kura, as well as creates water shortages in these districts.

- There are those who connect this situation with hydroelectric power stations and reservoirs built on the Kura River. Do you think there is some truth in what is being said or is what happened a natural process?

- The reservoir is built to create a lake there. That is, we call artificial lakes reservoirs. For example, Mingachevir Reservoir. From there, the canals start. The Upper Karabakh canal, the Upper Shirvan canal. These canals take water from there for irrigation. At the same time, water is pumped from the Kura through pipes. For the benefit of large farms. This situation is due to the increase in water intake directly from the Kura River. There are 4 reservoirs in Turkey. Georgia wants to build 4 reservoirs. In addition, there are 4 large reservoirs on the Araz River. Each reservoir means that the river is cut off and water is taken. Therefore, reservoirs reduce river flow.

- Until now, weren’t there no forecasts that the Kura could dry up? Why didn't the government take the necessary steps before the situation reached this point?

- Many experts say that 10 years ago we said that the Kura will dry up. Even after the earthquake, many say that I predicted it. But no one says that the day before the earthquake. These are not true. Supposedly, there were individuals who said that the Kura would dry up in 2010. It's a lie. In 2010, I had a scientific article. We suffered more from the floods in the Kura. The water of the Kura and Araz was considered an inexhaustible source. It was unthinkable that the Kura could dry up. Among the people they called it “Kura the Mad”. The word “Kura” means “mad” itself. But this could be predicted. We did not know at that time that reservoirs of that size would be built on the Kura in Turkey. We also did not know that after 2015, the area planted in Azerbaijan will double. The Gayabayi Reservoir in Turkey was started in 2015, completed in 2019, and filled. The same can be said about the Koroghlu Reservoir. If we knew all this, we could make a prediction. But we did not know, and therefore there was no prognosis. But now we have the information. For example, Georgia plans to build 5 reservoirs on the Kura. They are building one small hydroelectric power station above Tbilisi and four below Tbilisi. This is like an assassination attempt against Azerbaijan. Kura is the main attribute of Tbilisi. With this in mind, they started to build after Tbilisi. This area is the Kvemo-Kartli region, where Azerbaijanis live compactly. They are on the banks of the Kura. Now it turns out that if reservoirs are built there, Azerbaijanis will be relocated from their villages. Demographers, politicians, and lawyers should investigate this. The next forecast is that the situation will not be good if there are no years with plenty of waters, i.e. if the rivers do not increase as a result of heavy rains. 2020 is not hydrologically considered a year with plenty of waters. So, there will be more serious dangers. We must be ready for that.

- What steps should be taken now to get out of the situation, to save the Kura, nature, and ecology?

- Steps should be taken both in Azerbaijan and at the international level. There is an international convention on the use and protection of transboundary watercourses and lakes. 25 countries are members of the convention. Azerbaijan is one of those countries. But neither Georgia, nor Turkey, nor Iran, nor Armenia have joined the convention. Because it does not serve their purpose. They are an upstream country. Turkey does not join because it blocks not only the Kura but also the Tigris and Euphrates rivers flowing into Iraq and the rivers flowing into Syria. As this convention is a legal document, Azerbaijan can appeal. But this issue will not be resolved within the convention. Because if Azerbaijan cannot resolve the occupation of its territory within the framework of international law, how can it resolve the water issue? There is only one way. As strategic partners, Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan should try to resolve this issue without including an international convention. They must agree on how much water will come from Turkey to Georgia and from Georgia to Azerbaijan via the Kura. Experts must calculate all this. It is also necessary to meet the ecological needs of the Kura. About 20 percent of the water in the Kura must always remain so that the fish and living things there can live. This is both important from the point of view of animal rights and economically beneficial for Azerbaijan. Because in the 60s of the last century, the volume of sturgeon produced in Azerbaijan via the Kura River, as well as in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea was 60,000-70,000 tons. In those years, the Caspian Sea could supply 90 percent of the world's sturgeon and black caviar. It was a great resource. Now Azerbaijan is deprived of this resource. At present, annual fish production is less than a thousand tons. Imagine how much this 60-70 thousand tons of fish would bring in a year. How much would it bring in 60 years, 100 years? This is what we mean by sustainable development. If we compare the annual income from sturgeon with the income from oil, we get an interesting figure. We have been producing oil for 30 years. But sturgeon can be produced and sold for 100 years. At the same time, we may have sturgeon in the future. But oil will not always be there. You have to think about it. The fish leave the Caspian Sea to spawn and go to the rivers. In other words, because these sturgeons are temporary fish, they cannot spawn in the sea and migrate to small rivers. For this, they have to cross the Kura. However, these dams built in the Kura and Araz hinder the migration of fish. There is no water for fish to swim normally. Therefore, we lose most of these valuable sturgeon. It would be good to build fish transit facilities in Mingachevir, Varvara, Shamkir, Yenikand, and even in Khodaafarin and Mil-Mughan dams.

Within Azerbaijan, the intensity of agriculture must be increased. It is necessary to increase yields not by increasing the total sown area but by increasing modern technologies, modern irrigation methods. It is necessary to prevent water losses in irrigation water. A new institutional basis needs to be developed for this. The management of water resources in the Republic of Azerbaijan should be entrusted to a centralized organization. This organization should be responsible for the management of water resources in all sectors. Today, farmers are inspected by the Ministry of Agriculture. But they are provided with irrigation water by Amelioration and Water Resources OJSC. Dangerous cases are considered by the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Hydroelectric power stations are managed by the Azerenergy. The Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources is responsible for the ecological condition of the rivers. There are many sides. These organizations must either be strongly coordinated, or the authority of all of them in the water sector should be given to one organization. It should be transferred to the principles of the basin, modern irrigation methods.