Power and Opposition: step towards or to the side

- According to tradition, even if formally, after the elections the government resigns. How do you think, will the new Cabinet differ in its composition from the previous one?

- In fact, the system crisis in Azerbaijan is so deep that even a change of all ministers cannot help to overcome it. Despite this, I do not think that fundamental changes will be made. Perhaps several ministers and officials from the members of the old guard will be dismissed and replaced with new people. But this cannot eliminate the systemic crisis. We have already seen appointments to the post of new and younger ministers. Minister of Communications, Minister of Education, who then became Minister of Taxes. But all this did not lead to the beginning of reforms. It did not help to overcome the crisis, but was perceived simply as a manifestation of an intra-power, inter-clan war. That is, one official ousted another. All this did not affect the lives of ordinary people. I think that a serious crisis has ripened in Azerbaijan. Without very profound economic and political reforms, it will not matter who is represented in power, which minister was fired, etc.

- The names of several people, which this time will not be represented in the government are mentioned among the public; in particular, the name of the call Prime Minister Artur Rasizadeh. Can you note the specific names of those who can leave their posts?

- Arthur Rasizadeh can retire due to age and health reasons. But I think, in this case, the young Arthur Rasizadeh will simply replace him. For example, it could be Mikail Jabbarov. That is, in fact, a person without initiative, followed by a top-down directive, eliminating all the obstacles put up before him. From this point of view, I do not think that the departure of any minister from his position can be presented to the public as a big show. And I also predict that Arthur Rasizadeh will leave his post because of his age and health. At the same time, it can be assumed that Mayor of the capital, Hajibala Abutalybov, will retire after the elections. In the debate on the eve of the presidential elections, Elmar Mammadyarov was openly elected as a target. If you consider that these proposals were voiced by far from independent people, I can say that Mammadyarov will be replaced by another person. It can be assumed that for a long time Ramil Usubov, the Minister of Internal Affairs, will be removed from his post. So far, we can assume that these ministers will leave their posts. And in the economic sphere, most ministers have already been replaced in advance. There are some assumptions that Kamaleddin Heydarov will also resign from office. I think that after the elections, the reform of many economic structures will begin. That is, the unification of some ministries is being discussed. From this point of view, the resignation of Kamaleddin Heydarov can also be considered in this context. The head of the Customs Committee, Aydin Aliyev, may lose his post. In general, the Ministry of Taxes and the Customs Committee can be combined. And many ministers will remain outside the new cabinet as a result of such associations. While I believe that these individuals can be sent into retirement.

- In the recent past, experts, referring to the processes occurring at the top, said that there is an internal power disassembly. However, during the pre-election period and now there is a lull in power. Do you think these intrigues actually subsided, or is this a relative calm?

- I do not think that the inter-clan war has died down, and we witnessed this on the eve of the presidential elections. If you pay attention to registered candidates for the presidency, you can see that in this issue, political figures close to the "second ruling family" were left out. I would not like to mention specific names right now. But most of them know. They were candidates who differed in closeness to the old guard, and we can say that the authorities did not want to make changes. Both Faraj Guliyev and Gudrat Hasanguliyev, as well as Hafiz Hajiyev and Zahid Oruj participated in the elections as representatives of the old guard. There the only exception was Razi Nurullaev, but he also participated in the elections with the consent of the old guard, although he is characterized as a representative of the opposite side. From this point of view, the speeches of presidential candidates showed that these disassembles are continuing. Just on the eve of the presidential election, the tendency to avoid responsibility is unacceptable. Who will take part in the inter-clan struggle, that immediately can be punished by the first person of the country. In this respect, they stood somewhat apart. So I do not believe in the completion of inter-clan disassembly. I suppose that very soon it will receive a wide, large-scale scope, and in order for the "second ruling family" to fully take revenge, all conditions are created. Already now it can be assumed that after these elections the Nakhchivan clan will suffer even worse defeat.

- Some believe that there are two groups within the government, others believe that there are three of them, and others say there are more. Probably, when forming the composition of the government, it will be discovered which of them turned out to be stronger. What do you think of it?

- I believe that the Pashayevs clan has already won. I talked about this in one of my interviews. The train has already left, and the Pashayevs have won. And unequivocally, in the newly will be represented people close to the government. A piece of cake, which fell to the share of the old guard, will be minimal. The main part will get Pashayevs.

- After the election, the new old president and his team expect reforms in the political and other areas. How do you think, will the authorities do this this time?

- In the country the situation is that, regardless of the will and desire of the authorities, such reforms are inevitable. I think that after the elections, most of the problems of political prisoners will be solved. An impressive number of people who are characterized by human rights defenders, international organizations as political prisoners and prisoners of conscience will be released. Of course, this will not solve the problem of political prisoners completely. In any case, the release of these people will be regarded as a commendable step. I am sure that this will happen in the near future. On the other hand, the authorities are well aware that the current system of governance can lead to a fiasco. From this point of view, willy-nilly will have to implement reforms and rigid management system to change to a softer one, this is inevitable. I believe that certain reforms will be carried out. Of course, this will not lead to overcoming the systemic crisis. Because this requires broader, larger-scale reforms. I'm not really sure that the current authorities will do it. But in any case, the reforms will be carried out. Whether this society is satisfactory or not, this, of course, is another topic. I believe that society does not like it. Implementation of reforms, albeit small, is necessary, otherwise the society will be subjected to very difficult tests. The authorities will be forced to do this. Implementation of reforms, even small and in any form, even in the form of imitation, is inevitable. That is, it does not depend on the desire of the authorities. The authorities will simply be forced to hold them.

- You say that the authorities will change their tough policies to soft policies. In what areas can this be softening take place? In the field of attitudes toward society, NGOs, media, or in other areas?

"In the near future, we will be able to observe the release of journalists-prisoners of conscience, the provision of financial assistance to the Internet media and the initiation of a dialogue with NGOs, the first steps of an armistice with an extremely oppressed, cornered civil society. However, it is somewhat difficult to say how relations with the opposition will develop. I would like to pay special attention to one question. Only the authorities cannot be blamed on this issue. I think that both the authorities and the opposition must take steps towards a consensus. Each of these parties should retreat somewhat from their claims. Responsibility lies with the authorities. Because the authorities control the situation. From this point of view, the authorities should call on the opposition to dialogue. However, the opposition should retreat slightly from its claims. Both sides should take steps to meet each other. If each of these parties does not do this, a very difficult situation will develop in the country. People who think about the future of Azerbaijan, whether they are represented in power or in opposition, in the media, in institutions of civil society, understand that Azerbaijan is in a difficult situation. From this point of view, both sides must give up their ambitions and, I emphasize once again, should make a step towards unity, start a dialogue. I believe that the dialogue between the sides on the future of Azerbaijan, for the implementation of political and economic reforms, is necessary, inevitable. We also, on the example of the opposition that has settled in Europe, called the franchise, we see that the holy place is never empty. Such a place is filled by marginal groups. If this place is occupied by the opposition, then the place liberated by it tomorrow will be occupied by religious radicalism or ethnic separatism. If we do not want to get a war on ethnic or religious grounds in the country, we need to achieve a dialogue between the authorities and the national democratic opposition, between the government and civil society. People with a democratic platform, liberal, social democratic thinking should start negotiations. Otherwise, a frenzy of marginalized people can bring the country to its knees. Of course, this is undesirable.

- Azer-bey, let's talk about international relations. The West has met the last processes with almost silence. The appointment of early elections, nomination by Ilham Aliyev of his candidacy for the presidency for the 4th time and for 7 years. Some analysts believe that, perhaps, the West in the context of the European Union, the Eastern Partnership agreed to some kind of agreement. That is, in their opinion, in exchange for this silence, the West expects from the authorities some positive steps. And on the other side are the unchanging authorities and the policy of Russia. The question arises: where will Azerbaijan go? Toward the West or Russia?

- Of course, without the consent of the West, it would be impossible to hold these elections in Azerbaijan. Simply, today the world is busy with events taking place in Syria. In addition, presidential elections were held in Russia. Now there is a confrontation between Russia and the West. In this situation, not up to Azerbaijan. The strategists of the Azerbaijani government know that after the elections in Russia, the general attention will be focused on Russia. Taking advantage of this situation early elections have been held. In the fall, pressure on Russia will increase significantly. There will begin an economic crisis. This will definitely affect Azerbaijan. And then the West and Russia will demand from Azerbaijan to determine its position. From this point of view, early elections were in line with the strategic plans and interests of the authorities. For all these years Azerbaijan, with the silent connivance of the West, destroyed democracy. I do not think that for seven years or in the next 10 years something will change. For all these years, the destruction of civil society, media and democracy in Azerbaijan took place with the tacit consent of the West. If you listen to the latest statements of Russian TV presenters Kiselyov, Solovyov, it becomes clear that they actually bring Putin's position to the audience: while he is in power, he will support Ilham Aliyev. From this point of view, I think that the authorities of Azerbaijan have no serious problems with Russia either. But lately, one feels that Russia is exerting strong pressure on Azerbaijan in issues related to the Customs and Eurasian Unions. In this regard, Azerbaijan demands the expression of a specific position. I suppose that by the autumn the pressure of both the West and Russia on Azerbaijan will increase significantly. And Azerbaijan will have to decide definitively where it integrates: into the Euro-Atlantic space or to Russia? I believe that the interests of Azerbaijan are connected with integration into the Euro-Atlantic space. From this point of view, too long flirting with Russia can cost Azerbaijan dearly. In any case, until the Syrian problem is solved, while the Russia-West confrontation continues, Azerbaijan, based on its geographical location, can use the situation to its advantage. However, sooner or later, Azerbaijan will have to make the final choice. The fate of Azerbaijan will depend on what this choice will be - to move towards Russia or to the West.