Russia is not a reliable intermediary

"Discussions on normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations are held in extreme secrecy"

"Ankara does not understand the processes"

Turan: Moscow also directed the political process after the transfer of control of the border and 4,000 square kilometers of Azerbaijani territory to the control of the Russian military on November 10, 2020. In November 2021, the European Union joined the process. How do you evaluate the processes?

Oktay: Russia used Armenia to stay in the South Caucasus after the collapse of the USSR on December 26, 1991. In May 1992 and the second half of 1993, Russia occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts. Although governance has changed, the South Caucasus strategy, which began under Tsarist Russia, has never changed. Russia continued to remain in the region through the Armenians from 1991 to September 27, 2020, and has been continuing to do so since November 10, 2020, through Azerbaijan. With the agreement signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia on November 10, 2020, Russia has completely taken control of the peace process in the region. Despite the signing of a five-year agreement that Russian “peacekeepers” will remain in the region, everyone sees that these armed forces intend to remain in the region forever.

Despite disagreements between Armenia and Russia on many issues, Moscow did not reassure itself and closely followed the 44-day war while punishing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. As soon as the occupied territories were liberated and Nagorno-Karabakh's turn came, Russia intervened in the process and blocked the possible agreements between Azerbaijan and Armenia, saying, "I am also in the region." Every day Azerbaijan says, "The Karabakh problem is over," but the problem is just beginning. The European Union has made a move to prevent Russia from entering the region disproportionately. With Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the process, which began in November 2021, was revived, and they wanted to weaken Russia's will.

Despite the tripartite agreement of November 10, 2020, and the Moscow Declaration signed on February 22, 2022, Russia's continued support of Armenia and its provocative actions against Azerbaijan have caused distrust in both the Azerbaijani government and its people. Following Russia's attack on Ukraine, the European Union's messages in favor of Azerbaijan are welcomed by Baku. We see that the problem has become more chaotic than before, despite the fact that since the November 10 agreement, the Azerbaijani government, has been propagandizing that the "Karabakh problem is over", especially in Turkey. The OSCE, Moscow, and Brussels processes are making this even more confusing.

Turan: After the Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in Brussels on May 22, riots broke out in Yerevan. What is the reason for this: do you think that such actions can lead to changes in the Karabakh policy of the Armenian leadership?

Oktay: In order not to lose Armenia, Russia is working openly and secretly to keep Pashinyan under pressure and prevent him from signing an uncontrolled agreement with Azerbaijan or Turkey. After each meeting, except the one held in Moscow, there were definitely tensions in Yerevan. The Russian-controlled opposition group opposes the transfer of the process to the European level, leaving out Moscow.

Therefore, the reason for the chaos in Armenia should be sought in Russia's desire to prevent these processes and not lose control. Considering Russia's influence over Armenia, Pashinyan has to move the peace process forward more carefully. Otherwise, if the current Pashinyan government pursues a policy completely independent of Russia, it may be overthrown. However, if the war between Russia and Ukraine continues for a long time and Russia inflicts heavy losses, the Armenian government will be able to pursue a slightly more independent policy from Moscow.

Turan: While the Brussels process is positively assessed, can we talk about Moscow's exclusion from the process?

Oktay: The failure to make any progress in the trilateral talks in Russia is in favor of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Thus, both sides clearly demonstrate that Russia is not a reliable mediator. If the number of meetings in Brussels increases and progress is made, Russia's chances of being left out of the process increase, and we may face a coup attempt by Russian supporters in Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia's goal is to stay in the region for a long time under the pretext of violating the ceasefire, not due to peace. The violations of the ceasefire cause Russia to remain in the region indefinitely. Furthermore, Russia is helping the Nagorno-Karabakh administration behind the scenes. The Nagorno-Karabakh parliament has also adopted Russian as its official language. If Moscow complies with the agreement and leaves the region after 5 years, Azerbaijani Turkish must also be accepted as an official language in Nagorno-Karabakh. As the population of the region is issued passports of the Russian Federation, a Russian minority is being formed there. As all the information about this comes from Baku, Ankara does not understand the process.

Turan: What is the current situation with the moves on the "normalization" process between Turkey and Armenia last autumn?

Oktay: Turkey pursues these processes through the information provided by Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan's propaganda in Turkey. Therefore, in many cases, there are very serious differences between the information provided to the public and the truth. Many scientists in Turkey know the issue in the way that Azerbaijan directs and conducts scientific research in the direction of propaganda. Even a short time ago, a meeting was held in Baku under the supervision of propagandists. Both countries insist on managing the process over these lies. According to the Zurich Protocols signed in 2009, Ankara is now holding secret talks due to problems between Turkey and Azerbaijan. After the 44-day war, the solution to the problem aside, things have become more complicated. The process of normalization of relations between the two countries depends on how long Pashinyan can stay in power. If Pashinyan is removed from power, the "normalization process" will stop.

Therefore, in order for the process to continue, stability within Armenia must return to Pashinyan’s favor. In the event of a Russian-backed coup in Armenia, even if the new government refrains from a war against Azerbaijan, terrorist attacks may occur. Now we are talking about the European Union, the Minsk Group, Moscow, and Ankara processes; however, Nagorno-Karabakh can move towards the Donbas model under Russian control.