"The Armenian armed formations are more subordinate to Moscow than to Yerevan"

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Question: What messages were the most important in the interview of President Ilham Aliyev to CNN Turk TV channel? Whom did the president address the messages to? Have you chosen the right place and time for the interview?

Answer: The most important messages in Ilham Aliyev's interview with CNN Turk concerned Russia's influence on Azerbaijani-Armenian relations, especially after the 44-day war and Russia's non-fulfillment of the trilateral declaration. One of the main reasons for this interview was the need to show a reaction to the growing pressure from Russia on Azerbaijan after Ilham Aliyev's visit to Moscow. In this regard, the place, time and context of the interview messages were chosen correctly. Because Azerbaijan had to declare to Russia that it cannot behave like the master of the region, in particular in the territories of Azerbaijan, which are still under occupation. It has obligations. According to the tripartite statement, there are points that need to be fulfilled. Russia does not fulfill them. These messages were pertinent and, above all, they were a response to the recent steps taken by Russia towards Azerbaijan.

Question: The President clearly stated that the arming of Armenia by Russia causes concern, adding that according to the declaration of November 10, Armenia could not send weapons and military to the territories controlled by the Russian peacekeeping forces. At the same time, he stressed that Armenia is a strategic ally of Russia. Do you think that such messages will deter Russia and Armenia from these actions?

Answer: These messages will not deter Armenia or Russia from these actions. Because during the Second Karabakh War, that is, during the 44-day war (by the way, this war was planned by Russia), Russia failed to achieve its goals. Russia is not happy with the fact that Azerbaijan has completely liberated its territories along the border and along the border with Iran, including the capture of Shushi. I said that the reason for this war was Russia's desire to take control of communications in the region last July and gain access to the Middle East by land. At the same time, in order to ensure control over these communications, that is, to guarantee their work, Russia had to deploy peacekeeping forces in these areas. First, then talk is about Jabrail. Through Jabrail, through a transport junction built in 2016, which, crossing the Araz, leads to Iran. Russia was unable to achieve this. In fact, she was prevented. I believe it was not only a plan of Azerbaijan. This was part of the global plan. Russia could not achieve this goal and now, it is trying not by washing, but by skating to realize its plan. That is why Russia continues to arm Armenia and its illegal armed formations in Karabakh (the withdrawal of which, Russia was supposed to ensure). Thus, she puts pressure on Azerbaijan. At the same time, she makes it clear that she will provoke a new war. Since Russia has a global goal, it will not back down. Armenia is not a goal here, but a tool. Russia is using Armenia to achieve its goal. In return, it promises some success for Armenia.

Question: Someone claims that Russia wants to seize Karabakh. Can these statements become reality?

Answer: These statements are absolutely justified. Russia does not at all plan a 5-year stay in the region of the armed forces introduced as a peacekeeping force, as envisaged in the trilateral statement. We became aware of this thanks to open statements by a number of Russian officials. The work being done there is not designed for a 5-year period. In general, the Russian armed forces are carrying out an occupation mission rather than a peacekeeping mission in the region. They conduct various exercises using heavy weapons; install various electronic protection systems in the mountainous part of Karabakh. This is not part of the mandate of the peacekeeping mission. In general, even the armament of the Russian armed forces stationed in the mountainous part of Karabakh is not intended to perform peacekeeping functions.

Shusha is extremely important. I have been saying from the first day of signing the statement that the goal is three directions - Jabrail, Shusha and Kelbajar-Terter directions. In this sense, the return of Kelbajar to Azerbaijan is not accidental. The fact is that although Kelbajar was returned to Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan does not have normal transport links and communication links with Kelbajar. Until today, the goods delivered to Kelbajar are carried by the so-called Russian peacekeepers. This means that the defense of Azerbaijan in Kelbajar is not up to the mark. This is done deliberately.

Question: The President states that if Armenia prepares for a new war, then preventive measures will be taken. In your opinion, can the war start again? If a war breaks out, whom can Azerbaijan face with -Russia or Armenia?

Answer: All this military rhetoric is rather of a deterrent, warning character. However, there are exceptions when the result of such rhetoric is already certain local clashes, skirmishes, which, undoubtedly, can develop into local and even possibly large-scale military actions in certain territories. In such cases, leaving Azerbaijan and Armenia face to face is not in line with Russia's plans. Because Armenia will definitely fail. After completing the 44-day war, Azerbaijan continues to conduct exercises. The armament of the army also continues. In Russia, too, they follow this process very closely. They understand that if Azerbaijan comes face to face with Armenia, then the second time Armenia may suffer an even more catastrophic defeat than the first time. Therefore, Russian interference is not ruled out here. This interference may not be obvious. Russians can fight under the guise of Armenian forces. Such cases took place during the First Karabakh War. Moreover, in droves. This option looks more likely. Situations are even possible when, having arranged provocations on the border and exaggerating its obligations within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia itself can intervene in the process.

Question: Armenia and Russia are taking steps that contradict the declaration of November 10. What steps can Azerbaijan take if this continues further? Can Russian peacekeepers be withdrawn from the country? Can Azerbaijan simultaneously establish control over the Lachin corridor?

Answer: I have repeatedly suggested that Azerbaijan raise the issue of joint control over the Lachin corridor with the so-called peacekeeping forces of Russia. It is necessary to raise the issue of joint protection in order to control and prevent the process of rotation, increase in personnel, support to illegal Armenian military formations, as well as units of the Armenian army that were supposed to be withdrawn from the mountainous part of Karabakh, but they are still there and enjoy the support of Russia. Azerbaijan should demand this from Russia. If Russia does not fulfill these conditions, calls into question the sovereignty of Azerbaijan, tries to arrogate to itself the right to control movement and communications in this territory, Azerbaijan may demand the withdrawal of Russian armed forces from the country. Will Russia fulfill this requirement? This is a different question. But from a legal point of view, no armed forces, no matter what they are called, peacekeepers or otherwise, can be deployed on the territory of any country on the basis of any statement.

The deployment of Russian armed forces on the territory of Azerbaijan with the status of peacekeepers or any other status is illegal, contrary to the Constitution of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the law on the Concept of National Security. Naturally, the withdrawal of these forces may be required. I do not exclude that the tension that has begun in relations will ultimately lead to the advancement of this demand. This is a different conversation - whether Russia will withdraw them. I guess not. One of the issues included in the global plans of Russia is the opening of a transport and communication corridor through Karabakh. Therefore, Russia's compliance with this requirement is doubtful.

Question: The President stated that he wants to sign a peace treaty with Armenia. That is, Azerbaijan and Armenia recognize the territorial integrity of each other and begin the process of delimitation, that is, the definition of borders. However, there is no positive response from Armenia. Quote: “If they are against - then let them openly say that they do not want to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. In this case, we will conduct our policy in accordance with this."  What policy do you think Azerbaijan will pursue in this case?

Answer: A peace treaty is a necessary step that needs to be taken to put an end to all these conflicts and war, and I think that in this sense it is a justified demand. The Azerbaijani people should also support this demand. Along with this, work should be carried out both with the Armenians and with Armenia. To be honest, I do not think that Pashinyan agrees to be an instrument of Russia and is happy with it. He just has no way out. Because, although the West is supporting him, it is not enough. Russia has actually established its control over the region and is preventing Western countries from interfering in one form or another. It prevents even Turkey from participating in the process. Against this background, one of Pashinyan's latest proposals is interesting - a proposal to meet with Ilham Aliyev tete-a-tete.

Although the possibility of such a meeting may not seem very realistic, one can try to ensure that Azerbaijan and Armenia reach at least a temporary peace agreement between themselves, of course, provided that Russia does not know about this in advance (which is technically very difficult, but I would did not say that it is impossible). If this goal is achieved, if the peace is signed, then the issue can be considered closed. Of course, Russia will try, through its agent network, with the help of its fifth column in the Azerbaijani and Armenian armies, to rekindle the process, provoke a war, military confrontation again. However, if there is the will of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, some local clashes, military clashes cannot develop into a big war. The decision to launch a major war is made by politicians, not by the military. In this sense, Pashinyan's statement about the desire for a bilateral meeting, in fact, is a response to the same call that Armenia is ready to go to any agreement with Azerbaijan or discuss this agreement without the mediation of Russia.

If this does not happen, the possibilities of Azerbaijan are limited. Because, firstly, if Azerbaijan wants to return the occupied territories by military means, then Russia can apply the Georgian scenario of 2008. Under the pretext of protecting the peacekeepers who were then in South Ossetia from the threat, Russia sent troops into Georgia, but hope is not lost. I would not say that there is no chance. Negotiations with Armenia are possible. In any case, certain steps can be taken towards a peace treaty. However, it will be difficult to reach a peace agreement. Because Azerbaijan will demand from Armenia the recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Pashinyan cannot do this. Because in this case, Russia will incite this entire radical nationalist group against Pashinyan.

Question: In what direction do you think the processes are developing? Will Armenia agree to conclude peace with Azerbaijan? Or, is another scenario possible?

Answer: I will refrain from predicting in which direction the processes will go. Because the answers to these questions have already revealed many contradictions. It should be borne in mind that if today the territories in the mountainous part of Karabakh are controlled by the so-called Russian peacekeepers, then, undoubtedly, the Armenian armed formations located there are subordinate to Moscow than to Yerevan. Because they are controlled by Moscow. Let us not engage in self-deception that Russia has peacekeepers. Now the Russian special services are in full swing there, and in a sense, Russia considers the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh its wards, makes them feel it, and reminds them at every opportunity that it is their protector. It is no coincidence that Russian was introduced there as the second official language. Russia has effectively removed the Armenian community in Karabakh from the control of Yerevan. Therefore, Pashinyan's consent to peace does not mean that the Armenian community in Karabakh will agree with this. As for other scenarios, whatever you look at, if an understanding is not reached, then military conflicts and war may arise. This is the Russian scenario. Will Azerbaijan be able to solve successfully this puzzle? It is a question. It is difficult for me to answer this question unambiguously today; but I know one thing - Russia is in a hurry, trying to achieve its goals, creating military conflicts.

Kamran Mahmudov