"Is the peace process underway?"

Passport control will be carried out at the checkpoint established by Azerbaijan on the Lachin road, along with cargo inspection.

The Armenian newspaper "Hraparak" writes that not only trucks will be checked at this point, but also passports, and this will be done directly by Azerbaijani border guards. "And this means," the Armenian newspaper “Hraparak” writes, "that the Armenian population of Karabakh will be forced to either leave it in the coming months or accept the demands of Azerbaijan. This will happen in the coming months," the newspaper writes.

On April 23, the State Border Service of Azerbaijan announced that a border checkpoint has been established on the border with Armenia, at the entrance to the Lachin-Khankendi road. The report says that this step is justified by the illegal transportation of weapons from Armenia to the territory of Azerbaijan. Armenia does not reject this accusation.

Before that, Baku also stated that if Armenia wants to establish a checkpoint on the road, which, according to the document dated November 10, will connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan, then Azerbaijan should also have the right to control the Lachin road.

What impact will the border checkpoint on the Lachin-Khankendi road have on the peace process?

International affairs expert Elman Fattah answers the questions of ASTNA.

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Question: How will Azerbaijan's construction of a border checkpoint on the Lachyn-Khankendi road affect the peace process?

Answer: The main question, in essence, is the following: is the peace process underway? If you have noticed, the process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is considered "peaceful", after each agreement reached at the end of the 44th war, experiences another period of escalation. Examples are “Operation Farrukh” after the Moscow talks, the September fighting after the Brussels talks, the leaving  the Prague Agreement on paper in October and the termination of the Brussels process since last autumn, followed by the actions on the Lachin Road. These events show that there is not a real peace process going on between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but a process of avoiding peace under the domination of Moscow against the background of imitation of peaceful appeals from Western political centers. From this point of view, the mutual establishment by Armenia and Azerbaijan of a border checkpoint on the Lachin-Khankendi road does not affect the process presented as peace negotiations in any way. This step was taken by the two countries in order to protect the borders. The mere installation by Azerbaijan of a checkpoint on the road for Karabakh Armenians leading to Armenia caused unjustified protests in several countries, which led people to the erroneous conclusion that serious international pressure would be exerted on Azerbaijan. But, apart from a couple of statements on duty, there will be no serious pressure on Azerbaijan because of this. Because the installation of a border checkpoint on the border of two countries is a procedural procedure carried out by any sovereign country, both according to international law and based on the experience of regulating relations between countries, and which, in fact, does not deserve to be considered news.

Question: How will Azerbaijan build relations with the Armenian community of Karabakh after this? Won't it become even more difficult for Azerbaijan?

Answer: The Armenian side uses this issue as an opportunity to escalate the process of "avoiding peace," which I mentioned earlier. However, Armenia will not be able to create serious international pressure on Azerbaijan, as it was during the September battles. There are two reasons for this. One of them was mentioned above: what happened is mutual. Both countries, Armenia on their side, Azerbaijan on their side, have established border checkpoints, and this is the sovereign right of two independent countries. Secondly, within the framework of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the geopolitical importance of the Azerbaijani government for Western political circles has increased significantly. The gas agreement signed with the European Union is one of the manifestations of this. That is, applying a policy of systemic pressure on Azerbaijan because of a completely ordinary step would be absurd, besides, there are opposite geopolitical conditions that exclude such pressure.

Question: The United States, France, and Russia have expressed concern about this step by Azerbaijan. Can the West, as well as Russia, exert some pressure on Azerbaijan because of this step? Can this in any form have a negative impact on the image of Azerbaijan?

Answer: These are routine statements. These are inadequate, weak manifestations of the influence of the Armenian Diaspora on international public opinion, on political centers. As already mentioned, no serious pressure is expected on Azerbaijan because of this. But the Azerbaijani authorities will try to link harsh criticism of their address for the difficult human rights situation, the complete suppression of political and media freedom with this event.

Question: US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Erica Olson visited the region. Louis Bono, the Chief Adviser of the US State Department for Negotiations on the Caucasus, has been on a visit to the region since April 13. Then the French Foreign Minister arrived in the region. According to the media, the purpose of these visits is to intensify the negotiation process on a peace agreement. According to the analysis, we are currently talking about a framework peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. What is this framework peace agreement and what is provided for in it?

Answer: The 5 basic principles of the framework peace agreement proposed by Azerbaijan last summer are as follows:

• Mutual recognition of sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of international borders and political independence of each other;
• Mutual confirmation of the absence of territorial claims of States against each other and a legal obligation not to make such claims in the future;
• Refrain from threatening each other's security in interstate relations, from using threats and force against political independence and territorial integrity, as well as from other circumstances incompatible with the purposes of the UN Charter;
• Delineation and demarcation of the State border, establishment of diplomatic relations;
• Opening transport and communications, establishment of other relevant communications and cooperation in other areas of mutual interest.

Taking into account the additions of the Armenian side, including proposals on the delimitation of borders, the opening of communications and ensuring security at the border, the document contains a total of 8 principles. However, there are no special hopes for a breakthrough in the negotiations on these principles.

Question: Are there prerequisites for signing any peace agreement?

Answer: In order to sign a peace agreement, both Azerbaijan and Armenia must first of all have the political will. Secondly, the main issue necessary for the establishment of permanent peace in the Caucasus, the political authorities of both countries must get rid of the dependence on the Kremlin, which is crucial. Thirdly, the peoples of both countries should be ready to "digest" the peace. What does it mean? This means that the Armenian people should give up their claims to Karabakh, and the Azerbaijani people should be ready to live together with the Karabakh Armenians. The firm will of the leaders of the two countries to peace is not yet visible, nor their complete liberation from Kremlin dependence, nor the willingness of the peoples of the two countries to "digest" the world, that is, a future based on compromises. In this regard, I believe that the expectations of the imminent signing of a final peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia are unjustified.

Question: What steps should be taken to sign a peace agreement, as well as to recognize Khankendi as the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan?

Answer: We have already said that the final peace agreement is not a subject of the near future. As for the actions that will be taken to restore Azerbaijan's sovereignty in Khankendi, the newly built border checkpoint, which we talked about earlier, is an important step in this direction. However, in order to achieve the restoration of sovereignty in general, it is necessary to withdraw the so-called "peacekeeping" Russian military contingent from the territory of Karabakh. Until this happens, deals with the Kremlin, which at first glance seem useful from the point of view of Azerbaijan's interests, may play the role of a boomerang in the future.