'Against the background of Western sanctions, even a state close to Russia will not join this alliance'

In a surprising revelation, Armenian Parliament Speaker Alain Simonyan disclosed that Russia had endeavored to integrate Armenia into the Russian-Belarusian Union in 2021, an initiative thwarted by the Armenian people's electoral choices. Simonyan's assertion sheds light on the behind-the-scenes maneuvers aimed at reshaping geopolitical alliances in the region.

Gagik Melkonyan, a member of Armenia's ruling Civil Treaty party, echoed concerns over potential loss of independence should Armenia accede to the Union state, signaling apprehensions within Armenian political circles regarding closer integration with Russia and Belarus.

The notion of former Soviet republics joining the Union has been a topic of discussion for years, with the recent agreements between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko adding fuel to speculation about the formation of a new USSR. These agreements outline extensive integration plans across multiple sectors, prompting concerns among experts about the trajectory of the Union.

However, as attention turns to Azerbaijan, questions arise about the potential for similar proposals and the country's capacity to respond. While Azerbaijani authorities have remained tight-lipped on the matter, Elman Mammadov, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on defense, security, and combating corruption, in an interview with Turan, highlighted existing alliances with Russia, including membership in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as indicative of Azerbaijan's stance on closer integration efforts.

Mammadov dismissed the notion of Azerbaijan entertaining such proposals, emphasizing the country's commitment to maintaining neutrality and independence. He pointed to Armenia's aspirations to align with the European Union and its wavering commitment to cooperation with Russia as indicative of shifting regional dynamics.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas Research Center, concurred, stating that while proposals to join the Russian-Belarusian Union may have been extended to multiple countries, including members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union, Azerbaijan's non-alignment policy and membership in the Non-Aligned Movement preclude such considerations.

Shahinoglu stressed in a commentary for Radio Azadlig that  amid geopolitical tensions and Western sanctions against Russia, the allure of the Union has diminished, with no state eager to risk alienation by joining. 'Against the background of Western sanctions, even a state close to Russia will not join this alliance.'

This sentiment underscores a broader skepticism towards deeper integration efforts and highlights the complexities of regional politics in Eurasia.

As Armenia grapples with its strategic choices and Azerbaijan maintains its diplomatic course, the landscape of geopolitical alliances in the region remains in flux, with implications for stability and cooperation across Eurasia.