Airplane Crash, Azerbaijan's Conditions – Are Relations with Russia Deteriorating?

On December 29, President Ilham Aliyev gave an interview to State Television (AZ TV) regarding the crash of an AZAL aircraft near Aktau, Kazakhstan, which had departed from Baku to Grozny four days earlier. The president stated that Azerbaijan had clearly outlined its demands to Russia: "On December 27, these demands were officially communicated to them. What are they? First, Russia must apologize to Azerbaijan. Second, it must acknowledge its fault. Third, the guilty parties must be punished, held criminally accountable, and compensation must be paid to the Azerbaijani state and the affected passengers and crew. These are our conditions."

The president noted that the first condition was already met on December 28: "I hope that the other conditions will also be accepted."

But will the other conditions be accepted? If not, how will this affect the alliance between the two countries? So far, Russia has not fulfilled the remaining conditions and has not made any statements regarding them.

According to Elman Nasirov, a member of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) and a member of Parliament, who spoke to "Turan", the main issue after the airplane crash was identifying the culprit and the motivation: "These matters were clarified. Russian President Vladimir Putin's phone call to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, offering an apology, shows that Russia unequivocally accepts that its air defense systems and those in charge of them were responsible for the tragedy."

Nasirov emphasized that now, Azerbaijan’s demands should be implemented one by one: "The apology demand has already been met. Now, the criminals must be punished, and in accordance with international practice, the party responsible for the crime must provide compensation. Since Russia has apologized, it means the next steps should follow."

Nasirov reminded that an investigation commission has already been formed and a criminal case has been opened in Russia: "The investigation is ongoing. As a result of the investigation, the perpetrators should be identified by name, and the reason for their decision, which led to a crime contrary to the Azerbaijan-Russia strategic partnership, must be revealed."

He stressed that after fulfilling these conditions, the two countries could maintain their relationship at its previous level: "Half-hearted actions are not needed. If Russia's president has apologized, but the other conditions are not fulfilled, this will be a half-measure, and it will maintain tension in our relations."

Nasirov believes that this is something Russia does not need: "Today, Russia is at war with nearly 50 countries on the Ukrainian front and is under sanctions. In this situation, Azerbaijan remains committed to close neighborly relations with Russia. Is it worth spoiling relations with Azerbaijan in this context? Absolutely not. I believe that Vladimir Putin is aware of this reality and must take the next steps."

Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of the "Atlas" Research Center, reminded Radio  Azadliq that President Ilham Aliyev gave the interview to AZTV the day after Putin’s call: "I got the impression that the Azerbaijani president was not satisfied with this phone call. True, the president said the first issue – the apology – was resolved, but there is another point. Russian President Putin apologized on the phone regarding the ‘passenger airplane being subjected to external interference of a physical-technical nature in Russian airspace, which resulted in a tragic event’. However, this is not a full apology."

Shahinoglu noted that the next phase concerns the punishment of the guilty parties and compensation: "Russia might be able to do this, but will it? This may take time. Just as they initially tried to falsely claim that an oxygen balloon exploded or the airplane collided with a bird flock, they may try to delay now. Had they admitted immediately, the situation wouldn’t have escalated this much."

According to Shahinoglu, the conclusion of this event is that it has been a significant blow to Russia-Azerbaijan relations: "In Russia, there are bloggers who support the war in Ukraine, and since December 29, they have been using harsh language against the Azerbaijani president. This indicates that Russian society and the political elite do not want to take responsibility for the downed airplane. It might also be related to the fact that if they admit this, they would also have to admit that in 2014, the Donbass separatists shot down the Netherlands-Malaysia flight."

On December 25, an AZAL airplane flying from Baku to Grozny made an emergency landing in Aktau. Out of the 67 people on board, 38 died and 29 survived.

President Ilham Aliyev stated that the passenger airplane was subjected to external physical-technical interference in Russian airspace, lost control, was directed to Aktau, and only thanks to the courage and professionalism of the pilots was it able to make an emergency landing.