Azerbaijani Experts Comment on Trump’s Victory

The victory of former President Donald Trump in the U.S. elections has been met with mixed reactions by Azerbaijani politicians and experts.

Political analyst Shahin Jafarli commented on the X network, linking the Republicans’ victory to President Joe Biden’s ineffective governance: "The people did not want to choose the current administration or its representative."

Former Milli Majlis deputy Gultakin Hajibeyli urged Azerbaijanis not to be disheartened by Trump’s win, recalling his promise to "bomb Moscow" if Putin attacks Ukraine. "Even Trump’s opponents don’t doubt that he will punish China and Iran for aiding Russia. I consider his most significant promise to be his intention to lower the global oil price to $40," Hajibeyli added.

Regarding Trump’s stance on political prisoners, Hajibeyli reminded that during Trump’s first term, there were no political prisoners left in Belarus, and Azerbaijan saw its largest political prisoner amnesty. "Ilham Aliyev ignored 50 calls from Secretary of State Blinken, but responded to a single call from Secretary Pompeo (during Trump’s first term) by reinstating Shahla Humbatova in the Bar Association. So, the international situation is not turning against Azerbaijan. On the contrary, seeing Azerbaijanis' desire for democracy, the U.S. will provide substantial support to our opposition," Hajibeyli remarked.

Isa Gambar, the leader of the Musavat Party, noted on LafTV that the balance of powers in the U.S. prevents the president from advancing only his agenda. However, if Republicans take control of both the Senate and the House, they would effectively rule the U.S. single-handedly. Otherwise, the president will need to coordinate decisions with Congress, which is unlikely, he suggested.

"Trump is a right-wing politician. Domestically, he plans to cut taxes, reduce the social burden on the country, and adopt a stricter stance on immigration. Predicting the Republicans' foreign policy is harder. It’s worth noting that they criticized the U.S.'s foreign spending, demanding a focus on domestic issues. So, a similar policy from Trump is possible, but reality is often more complex. President Bush also promised to focus on domestic affairs, but after the 9/11 attacks, his administration became one of the most outward-facing in U.S. history," Gambar added.

Historian Rizvan Huseynov expects that, with potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine on the horizon, Trump will "twist Moscow’s arm" by ramping up arms supplies and aid to Ukraine. "If Ukrainian forces succeed on the front, the U.S. will start consultations with Russia on terms for a temporary truce, while beginning parallel talks with Ukraine. However, if Ukrainian authorities don’t agree to U.S. terms, military and political support for Zelensky’s administration may decrease, giving Russia a chance to resume its offensive. In the end, there’s a possibility that Trump won’t be able to pressure Moscow and Kyiv into negotiations. This winter could prove tough for all parties in the conflict," Huseynov concluded.