Evaluations of the Snap Parliamentary Elections

The Central Election Commission (CEC) announced the preliminary results of the snap parliamentary elections held on September 1 for the Milli Majlis.

According to the results, the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) secured more than half of the parliamentary seats (68). It is expected that 13 seats will be distributed among 10 parties in total. The Citizen Solidarity Party will be represented by three seats, while the Justice, Law, and Democracy Party will have two seats. Eight other parties—the Republican Alternative Party, National Independence Party, Democratic Reforms Party, Motherland Party, Great Creation Party, Great Azerbaijan Party, National Front Party, and Azerbaijan Democratic Enlightenment Party—are close to securing one seat each.

Independent candidates might win 44 seats, although the opposition considers them pro-government. The independents reject this characterization.

All registered political parties in the country, except for the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (AXCP), participated in these elections. AXCP boycotted the elections, stating that there were no conditions for free and fair elections in the country.

On election day, numerous complaints about violations were voiced. Several observers claimed that ballot stuffing occurred at various polling stations, and instances of carousel voting, where one person votes multiple times at different locations, were reported.

CEC Chairman Mazahir Panahov stated that no official complaints had been submitted to the commission on election day: "However, any complaints submitted to the CEC will be thoroughly investigated with the participation of all interested international observers and media representatives. All issues presented as violations will be investigated in detail and transparently, and appropriate decisions will be made."

Hikmet Babaoğlu, a member of the New Azerbaijan Party’s Board, told Turan that the snap parliamentary elections for the seventh convocation mark a new chapter in national democracy: “For the first time, our voters exercised their full voting rights in the places they were born—Xankendi, Shusha, Lachin, and other areas. This is the greatest democratic event because it is significant for every individual to live where they were born and to carry out their political activities there.”

According to Babaoğlu, it was expected that the New Azerbaijan Party would win an absolute majority in the Milli Majlis, and it comes as no surprise: “Because the New Azerbaijan Party meets the expectations of our voters in terms of the development of national democracy, the strengthening of our statehood, and the restoration of territorial integrity. Our party leader is also the President of Azerbaijan, and our voters are capable of evaluating our activities.”

As for the election violations, he noted that in any nominally democratic society, there can be legal violations and diverse opinions in elections: “Even in the United States, France, and other Western countries, certain legal violations occur. Therefore, this should be accepted as part of democracy. Undoubtedly, as a democratic, legal state, Azerbaijan cannot idealize anything, and it is impossible to hold perfect elections in any democratic society. The main point is how the election authorities respond to such violations if they are identified. In Azerbaijan, this response is very adequate.”

Arif Hajili, the chairman of the Musavat Party's Council, which participated in the elections but did not win a single seat according to preliminary results, told AzadlıqRadio that they had fielded 34 candidates, with only 25 of them being registered: "We participated in the election process and monitored it. Our candidates ran successful campaigns and presented the Musavat Party's platform to voters. However, the entire election process, as expected, was fully controlled by the government."

Hajili emphasized that a democratic electoral environment did not exist in the country, with no guarantees of freedom of speech, expression, or assembly, and hundreds of political prisoners: "At the same time, it was predictable that the results of elections held under the full control of the election administrations would turn out this way. Unlike previous years, in recent years, the Azerbaijani government has not even bothered to simulate democracy."

He believes that by participating in the elections, the Musavat Party was able to communicate its views to voters and expose the election violations: "This revealed the lack of trust in the government within Azerbaijani society. Despite all the carousel operations, it was impossible to hide the low voter turnout. According to observers, voter turnout was less than 10 percent. This is partly due to voters losing hope that any changes can be made through their vote and partly due to their distrust in the Azerbaijani government."

Seymur Hezi, deputy chairman of the AXCP, which decided to boycott the elections, believes that elections in Azerbaijan are conducted using the systems of backward countries and are accompanied by fraud: "How many countries besides Azerbaijan can you find where elections are held in this way? Therefore, it is very difficult to call this process an 'election.'"

Hezi stated that even in the one or two districts where the competition was taking place, no real election occurred: "One government candidate received 1,000 votes, but overnight, somehow, the number of votes became 5,000 by morning. In such a situation, I don’t think it is appropriate to talk about any elections."

However, he acknowledged that the efforts of civil society candidates and the challenges they posed to government candidates are commendable.

Political commentator Nasimi Mammadli told AzadlıqRadio that the outcome of these elections was known well before election day: "According to the initial statement, 88 members (70.4%) of the current Milli Majlis were re-elected. Thirty-seven members (29.6 percent) are new. Seven of the 37 had previously been deputies."

According to the expert’s calculations, YAP won 68 seats (54.4 percent): "Of these, 50 were incumbent deputies. YAP has 18 new deputies. Six of the 18 have previously served as deputies. The independents will have 44 seats (35.2 percent). Thirty of them were already represented in the Milli Majlis. Fourteen are new deputies. Eleven parties will be represented in the parliament."

Mammadli noted that from the beginning of the election process, legal violations were evident: "There were artificial barriers to registering the majority of independent and opposition candidates. While there were not many violations during the election campaign period, there were widespread fraud cases on election day."

He believes that voter turnout has been exaggerated: "According to my observations, voter turnout was 11 percent. The reason for voters not showing up is the total falsification of the elections. Who voters actually voted for hardly influences the lists in the hands of the CEC."

Bashir Suleymanli, head of the Civil Rights Institute, also believes that these elections were conducted under conditions of blatant fraud.

He told Turan that ballot stuffing, group voting, facilitating the participation of individuals without proper identification, and especially the existence of additional voter lists that allowed non-registered voters to participate indicate that these violations were premeditated.

Regarding voter activity, the expert believes it was low: “Although administrative resources were used, I view the official figures with skepticism and estimate that the maximum voter turnout could have been 12-15 percent.”