Experts: Provocations Related to Problems in Armenia

Baku / 15.12.20 / Turan: In the territories liberated from the occupation as a result of the Azerbaijani-Armenian hostilities that began on September 27, the truce was violated.

According to the joint information of the Ministry of Defense and the State Security Service of Azerbaijan, as a result of a sudden attack by Armenians on the servicemen of the Ministry of Defense serving in this territory, in the village of Sur, Khojavend region, liberated on November 26, 3 Azerbaijani servicemen were killed and 2 were wounded. On December 8, during the installation of communication equipment and a transmission device in the area of ​​the Hadrut settlement, 1 serviceman was killed and an employee of Azercell was seriously wounded.

 According to the information, in the north-western part of the Hadrut settlement of the Khojavend region of Azerbaijan, some Armenian armed formations remained in the forests. To withdraw them, the Armenian side turned to the command of the peacekeeping forces of the Russian Federation. The Azerbaijani side has created all conditions for the withdrawal of Armenian armed formations from the territory. The servicemen of the Russian peacekeeping forces, who arrived in this territory in difficult weather conditions, with the help of loudspeakers addressed the Armenian armed formations in the wooded area, informing them that the necessary measures had been taken to evacuate them. However, these Armenian armed units did not leave the territory, but committed terrorist and sabotage actions.

For this reason, the State Security Service was forced to carry out anti-terrorist measures in this territory.

A The Armenian Defense Ministry reported that according to a trilateral statement signed on November 10, the Azerbaijani army launched an offensive using artillery fire in the villages of Kohne Taglar and Chalaggala, which remained under Armenian control.

The Armenian Foreign Ministry announced on December 12 that the Azerbaijani army "must leave the occupied territories and deploy civilian Armenians there. Official Baku is trying to break the trilateral statement."

In response, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan stated that the claims of official Yerevan against Azerbaijan are unfounded and unacceptable. The department called on Armenia "to strictly observe the requirements of the trilateral statement and refrain from destructive activities that prevent its implementation."

On December 12, President Ilham Aliyev, receiving the delegation of the OSCE Minsk Group, touched upon this issue. He said that "either the Armenian militants or the remnants of the so-called" Armenian army "committed some terrorist acts. This, of course, causes concern. It seems to me that Armenia in no case should try to start all over again. Two days ago at the military parade dedicated to our glorious victory, I said that, if fascism in Armenia raises its head, we will hit it on the head with an iron fist. Therefore, they should be very careful and should not plan any military action. This time we will completely defeat them. This should not remain a secret to anyone. But I hope it will not happen. "

What do the experts think?

Could recent events pose a permanent threat to the ceasefire?

Milli Mejlis deputy Asim Mollazade told Turan that the provocations are connected with problems in Armenia. “The provocations of the Armenian military were prevented, and in the indicated direction the representatives of the armed forces of Azerbaijan strengthened their control over a number of regions. All necessary steps have been taken. The provocations, in fact, are related to the problems in Armenia, and the revanchist forces in Armenia believe that by carrying out a provocation in any form, they can create certain suspicions about the current situation.

It seems to me that these steps are related to the Russian peacekeeping mission and are a step taken by the representatives of Armenia who are in Russia."

The MP believes that provocations by Armenia will end unsuccessfully. "In fact, Armenia no longer has the strength to wage a war. They should have been grateful to Russia for the fact that Russia once again saved them from complete defeat. There are forces that constantly shout about the "genocide" of the Armenian people and, as a result, get very serious benefits and collect money. They need wars and sacrifices from among the Armenian people. In Armenia, someone should already understand this, because the citizens of Armenia have already become victims of forces within the Armenian diaspora, which have always benefited from the war. Until the Armenian people understand this, they will always face it and become victims of wars."

Asim Mollazade said that Armenia should stop its territorial claims to neighboring countries and think about cooperation with these countries. “They have a chance for it. I am sure that these small groups, controlled by some forces, will not be able to change the general situation, and the issue will be resolved soon."

And the political scientist Arastun Orujlu believes that the growing tension in the territory of Hadrut is not the actions of some crazy Armenian groups. He told Radio Azadlig that the defeated Armenians do not and cannot have such courage. “I think this is not the case, and what happened serves two important purposes. First, back in Soviet times, there was an electronic warfare station on the territory of the Hadrut region. The relief of this station is very important, and they want to regain control. The relief is important because today the construction of these radars, or rather electronic warfare stations, is becoming relevant because of the drones. But the only difference is that this time it is within the framework of broad cooperation between Russia, China and Iran in this matter. One of them is probably also planned in the same area, in Hadrut. And secondly, they want to lay siege to Shusha."

The political scientist noted that both points are extremely important from a military-strategic point of view. "The station located on the territory of Hadrut, or rather the relief of the terrain on which it is located, allows to control the airspace of both Iran and Azerbaijan. The strategic importance of Shusha is also known. Whoever has Shusha has control over Karabakh.

The political scientist stressed that securing such claims is not within the limits of the Armenians' forces, and in part are not their goal. “For Russia, which plans to build a military base in Karabakh, both of these points are extremely important. And the Armenians, as always, play the role of an instrument in this matter”.

The head of the Movement for Democracy and Prosperity, Gubad Ibadoglu, told Radio Azadlig that the events that have taken place in recent days were expected. "Although there is a declaration of a ceasefire, at the same time, Russian peacekeepers are on the line of contact, and such local incidents were predictable, because we have repeatedly encountered such cases when the Russian army performed the same function in Karabakh in 1988-1990. At that time, deaths were recorded, and there were also wounded.

This happened not only between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, but even when the Russians were carrying out their official duties. From this point of view, what is happening now is not unusual for me."

According to Ibadoglu, these local clashes will continue.

“Firstly, the anger and wrath of the Armenians not only did not decrease, but on the contrary, increased. And the arrival of the Russians there untied the hands of the Armenians, so they began to feel more comfortable and safe. On the other hand, I think that everything that happens is in the sphere of interests of Russians and at a level controlled by them. That is, outside their control so far, nothing happens. Therefore, I think that in the near future the war may start again.

As there is no peace treaty, there is always the possibility of a war, but given the existence of a ceasefire declaration, which was signed in a trilateral manner through the mediation of Russia, Russia will not harm its reputation. I think that Russia will not allow it to develop to the level of war, even if such local conflicts happen in the near future,” Ibadoglu said.      --0—