"If earlier Russia gave hope to the separatists...'

The unexpected resignation of Araik Arutyunyan, leader of the Karabakh separatists, from the position of "President" has ignited speculation about the geopolitical implications of this move. Arutyunyan took to his Facebook page to announce his decision, attributing it to a comprehensive analysis of interactions with both domestic and foreign stakeholders and public sentiment over recent weeks. He emphasized that his resignation was a measured and balanced choice, drawn solely from the data he possessed.

Arutyunyan's decree on August 31 appointed Samvel Shahramanyan, previously the "Secretary of the Security Council," as the new "Minister of State." Interestingly, prior to his appointment, Shahramanyan represented Karabakh Armenians in a meeting with an Azerbaijani delegation.

Following Arutyunyan's resignation, some Armenian political commentators have suggested that this development could potentially favor Azerbaijan's interests. These commentators argue that Arutyunyan's departure strengthens Azerbaijan's foothold in the Karabakh region.

Conversely, Azerbaijani observers believe that this resignation could significantly influence peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Elshad Mirbashiroglu, a member of the Milli Majlis Committee on Defense, Security, and Combating Corruption, noted that Azerbaijan's influence is palpably growing in Khankendi. He asserted that Azerbaijan's will is now being acknowledged in the region.

Mirbashiroglu drew the attention of the Turan agency to internal disagreements in Khankendi.  Dissatisfaction with Arutyunyan's leadership has become apparent among the local Armenian populace, a situation reminiscent of Yerevan's unrest following Azerbaijan's territorial gains in 2020.

The deputy expressed that Arutyunyan's resignation does not signify his relinquishing of control over the process. Rather, it reflects the growing acceptance of Azerbaijan's authority in Khankendi. Moreover, Mirbashiroglu contended that Armenia recognizes the need to come to terms with Azerbaijan, a sentiment that eliminates discordant realities unpalatable to Azerbaijan.

According to Mirbashiroglu, this turn of events could intensify internal strife among separatist groups in Khankendi. He speculated that political chaos might escalate as separatists find themselves increasingly constrained. The resignation, Mirbashiroglu concluded, was an act of desperation.

Zarathustra Alizadeh, a political commentator, in an interview with Radio Azadlig noted that Shahramanyan's modest engagement in negotiations could signal a shift in the separatists' approach. Alizadeh suggested that separatist leaders are wary of possible arrests due to their integration concerns, prompting resignations as they contemplate fleeing to Armenia and even Russia.

Alizadeh underscored the influence of Moscow over the separatists, asserting that political figures were ill-equipped to manage the situation. He noted a shift in Russia's stance, suggesting that Moscow might be softening its encouragement of the separatists.

These recent developments come against the backdrop of stalled negotiations between Azerbaijan and representatives of the Armenian population in Karabakh earlier this year. While Armenia claims a blockade on the Lachin-Khankendi road since December, Azerbaijan asserts that the corridor remains open for humanitarian purposes. Azerbaijan's establishment of a border checkpoint on this road further intensified tensions. Armenian officials argue that the checkpoint contradicts a trilateral statement.

As the region navigates these shifting dynamics, the ramifications for the future of Karabakh remain uncertain, with both sides grappling to position themselves strategically.