Iran's Drills Are Interpreted This Way in Azerbaijan...

Iran has conducted military drills in the northern territory bordering Azerbaijan. The "Mehr" news agency reported this on August 13. According to the agency, citing a local official, the purpose of the drills was to strengthen the defensive readiness of the army's naval forces. "Reuters" reported that the exercises took place in the Gilan province on the coast of the Caspian Sea.

These drills are occurring against the backdrop of Tehran's promises to take countermeasures against Israel. Moreover, this is Iran's second military exercise in the last three to four days.

On July 31 of this year, the leader of the radical group Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European Union, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran. Although Iran and Hamas have blamed Israel, Tel Aviv has not directly claimed responsibility.

In previous years, Iran's drills along the border with Azerbaijan were met with criticism in Baku, both at the presidential level and by some members of the National Assembly. Some even perceived this as a threat to Azerbaijan. In response, Azerbaijan also conducted exercises with Turkey in the south of the country, near the border with Iran.

When asked whether these military drills were coordinated with neighboring Azerbaijan, and if not, whether there is a threat, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan has not yet commented. The ministry stated that they will issue a statement if there is any information to release.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of the "Atlas" Research Center, told Radio Azadliq that after the leader of Hamas was killed in Tehran, conservative calls have resurfaced in Iran: "The new president, Masoud Pezeskian, is also forced to agree with their calls. He even said that if Iran cannot directly strike Israel, it should target the centers of its partners in the region."

According to Shahinoglu, conducting military drills close to Azerbaijan's border is an unpleasant gesture: "When Azerbaijani territories were under occupation, Iran never conducted military drills (near Azerbaijan's border - ed.). Since 2020, Iran has conducted several military drills near our borders. Now, they are trying to intimidate and threaten Azerbaijan."

The political analyst notes that in relations with states like Russia and Iran, one cannot afford any gaps: "Otherwise, they will interpret our silence as weakness and put more pressure on us. Therefore, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan should issue appropriate statements. Secondly, no one can forbid Azerbaijan from conducting military drills along its borders. We could even hold joint military exercises with Turkey."

Shahinoglu emphasized the need for an Azerbaijan-Turkey military alliance, citing the impact of Middle Eastern events and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Political commentator Ahmad Alili, however, believes that this is currently a very sensitive period for Iran. In his view, Tehran interprets the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh as an attack against its own state and is determined to respond: "Iran will take a stance in one way or another... Currently, it is a transitional period in terms of information and PR efforts. Therefore, Iran is trying to use the PR effect to the fullest extent, showing that it is preparing for an attack and keeping Israel in constant tension. The issue is that, even if the attack doesn't have much effect, Iran places great importance on keeping its enemies on edge."

In his opinion, Iran also wants to show its hostility towards Israel and its neighbors: "But we can interpret the military drills near Azerbaijan's border as a message to us. It's very peculiar that no matter what happens inside Iran, they always initially claim that the attack came from the north. The 'north' could refer to Armenia, Azerbaijan, or Turkmenistan. But in this case, they mean Azerbaijan. Therefore, the military drills are one of Iran's standard actions. I believe this drill is a signal directed at Azerbaijan."

Political analyst Zardusht Alizadeh holds a slightly different view. He believes that Iran's military drills do not pose any threat to Azerbaijan: "Iran is conducting drills on its own territory, which has no impact on Azerbaijan. Even if they hold ten drills, it won't affect us. They are conducting it near our border, so what? We can also conduct military drills near the border with Iran. Don't forget that recently Iran and Azerbaijan conducted joint military drills, so there is no reason for concern."

Israel is currently engaged in a war with Hamas extremists in the Gaza Strip. In October of last year, Hamas launched an attack on Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages. Following this, Israel began operations in Gaza.