Is the "northern neighbor" expanding its political opportunities in the region?

Baku/15.05.21/Turan: After the trilateral declaration of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia on November 10 last year and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, some experts talk about expanding the political capabilities of the "northern neighbor" in the region.

Most experts believe that Russia wants to keep the Caucasus region under its control and is doing everything possible for this, while others note the weakening of Russia's position in the region. What are the long-term and short-term plans of Russia in the region?

Elman Nasirov, a member of the Milli Mejlis Committee on International Relations and Interparliamentary Relations, told Turan that if the priority area of ​​the foreign policy of the United States of America is the Middle East, then the priority area of ​​Russia is the post-Soviet space.

“This post-Soviet space is considered a strategically important area for Russia and instantly reacts to the processes taking place there. Russia is very jealous of the activity of other states in this region,” he said. The deputy noted that the Russian government has published a list of unfriendly countries, including the United States and the Czech Republic.

"Relations between Moscow and Washington are going through a very difficult period. In this context, pay attention to the visit of Sergei Lavrov to Armenia on May 5-6. The documents signed there concerned the biological security of Armenia, and for the first time Russia received such a guarantee that it has access to its biological laboratories in Armenia. While these laboratories do not belong to Armenia itself, it is widely believed that they are more owned by the United States,” he said.

According to the member of the committee, Russia has significantly increased its influence in Armenia after the Second Karabakh War.  “Previously, Pashinyan played a double game with both the West and Moscow. But now, after the famous defeat, his behavior has become unequivocally risky and ultimately dependent on Russia. For this ambiguous game, Russia is punishing Armenia.  The next  to be punisghed may be the USA, because the opening of biological laboratories for Russia by Pashinyan is contrary to the interests of the United States,” the deputy said. Nasirov stressed that the political leadership of Azerbaijan is pursuing a very correct course.

“The talk is about 's about staying on an equal footing with different centers of power, defending national interests and pursuing an independent policy, and prioritizing an atmosphere of cooperation and partnership,” he said. The MP noted that during Lavrov's visit to Baku, a document was signed on consultations with Russia on foreign policy issues in 2021-2022.

“This document serves to strengthen the atmosphere of cooperation between the two states both in bilateral and international relations, where Azerbaijan and Russia act as equal parties. The Azerbaijani state displays dignified behavior and treats Russia with respect. We are neighbors, but being strategic partners, we give preference to equal relations,” he said.

Elkhan Shainoglu, head of the Atlas Research Center, noted that Azerbaijan was the only country where Russia did not have military forces.

“Russia has a military base in Armenia. After  dividing Georgia, they appeared in Abkhazia and Ossetia. Now Russia has deployed troops in Azerbaijan and has achieved its goal. True, according to the statement of November 10, in 5 years this issue should be revised, but Russia will try not to leave Azerbaijan,” he said. As for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the political scientist believes that Russia does not want a complete settlement of the conflict.

"Because if the conflict is completely resolved, Russia will have to leave the region. Therefore, it does not want to lose the opportunity to influence both Azerbaijan and Armenia through the conflict. True, this does not coincide with the interests of Azerbaijan," Shahinoglu said.

The expert noted that much is spoken about the "fifth column" of Russia in Azerbaijan. “True, certain people have been removed from power, but this column is still strong, these sleeping cells still exist, and certain steps can be taken against Azerbaijan at any moment,” he said.

According to Shahinoglu, Russia wants Azerbaijan to  join  both the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union.

“Membership in the CSTO does not meet the interests of Azerbaijan. Because Armenia is there. As for the Eurasian Economic Union, Azerbaijan can participate there as an observer. In any case, Russia wants to put Azerbaijan into its orbit,” he said.

The political scientist believes that this will not work: "As if Azerbaijan has already created a military alliance with Turkey, and after its finalization, the transition of Azerbaijan to the orbit of Russia will be impossible." –0--