Lists before the Elections: Leaks from the Government, Calculations, or Fabrications...

Recently, some bloggers and activists have been circulating lists on social media claiming to reveal who will be elected as MPs or the composition of the new parliament in Azerbaijan. According to them, as with previous elections, the principle of "appointment" will once again dominate in the early parliamentary elections scheduled for September 1. However, they do not disclose their sources.

After Azerbaijan gained independence, the first parliamentary elections were held in 1995. Just a few days before those elections, Nemət Pənahlı, then the chairman of the National Statehood Party and an employee at the Presidential Administration, also presented a list. He claimed that the list contained the names of the "elected" candidates. He alleged that he had obtained this list from within the Presidential Administration. Although official bodies denied this, the subsequent election of the majority of those on the list as MPs sparked significant debate.

Before the most recent parliamentary elections in 2020, Milli Şura's chairman, Cəmil Həsənli, had published a similar list containing such claims. "The list we presented was not prepared due to any technical error by the Central Election Commission (CEC) or leaks from government circles. This list was compiled based on our long-term election observations and the data from the CEC's Information Center," he stated.

Should law enforcement agencies investigate such matters, and if they haven't, how can that be explained? Despite Turan Agency's inquiry to the Prosecutor General’s Office, no response has been received.

Milli Şura's chairman, Cəmil Həsənli, told Radio Azadlıq that people publish these lists based on the information they have obtained: "I cannot say on what basis the recent lists were compiled. However, in 1995, since Nemət Pənahlı worked in the administration, he was given the list. But in 2015, 22 days before the election, and in 2020, 12 days before the election, I had published a list of MPs who would receive mandates. No one gave me this list."

Həsənli emphasized that they had simply prepared the list based on the information they had gathered: "In both cases, 121 out of 125 MP seats were correct, meaning 96 percent accuracy." He mentioned that in the four districts where their list was incorrect, unexpected scandals had occurred.

Həsənli believes that the government's own mistakes play a role in the emergence of such lists: "In the 2010 parliamentary elections, something strange happened; the elections were to be held in October, and in September, the Flag Square was to be inaugurated. A list was sent to the Milli Majlis (parliament) asking them to invite these people to the opening, but instead of inviting the current MPs, they sent the list of those who would receive mandates. The names of the unelected, such as mine and Gültəkin Hacıbəyli's, were not on the list. This incident also caused a serious scandal."

Zaur İbrahimli, a representative of the Election Observation Coalition for Civil Society, has a slightly different view on the subject. He says that when viewed from the perspective of freedom of expression, everyone has the right to analyze and give opinions about parliamentary elections: "However, we must also consider that spreading and circulating such information based on anonymous sources can negatively impact voter behavior and participation. In that case, the persistent circulation of such information could be seen as intentional interference in the election process. In any case, any reasonable person—whether a journalist or an analyst—should primarily adhere to the principle of not causing harm. From an ethical standpoint, I believe this is the approach they should take."

Ibrahimli believes that the Central Election Commission could appeal to the relevant authorities to determine whether these published materials create legal responsibility: "The point is to avoid any opinion that would reduce voter turnout or undermine trust in the election."

It has not been possible to have an extensive conversation with the CEC on this issue. The head of the CEC's press service, Shahin Asadli, stated that what matters most to the CEC is the opinion of Azerbaijani voters, and the final word will also be said by the voters. In general, official bodies have previously emphasized not to trust such lists. They believe that these are fabrications by forces that do not rely on the will of the people and have no hope for success in the elections.

Bashir Suleymanli, head of the Civil Rights Institute, speculates that such lists are prepared based on approximate calculations: "In democratic countries, polls are conducted to determine favorite candidates, which is normal. But in countries like Azerbaijan, where elections are falsified, the MP to be elected from each district is already known, so there is no thought about a favorite candidate. If there were serious competition, the situation would be different. However, looking at the districts, we see that those appointed by the government have a significant chance. Therefore, this issue cannot be directly contested. A violation of the law would occur only if these lists were disseminated by a government body based on serious documents."