"The 30-year-old government says, rejoice... but he does not say that the oil era is ending"

On February 14, Ilham Aliyev officially commenced his seventh term as President of Azerbaijan, following his victory in the presidential elections held on February 7. The chairman of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) has held the country's top office for the past 21 years, maintaining his grip on power through successive electoral victories, as confirmed by official reports.

In accordance with the country's Constitution, the Cabinet of Ministers resigned on February 14, setting the stage for potential changes in the composition of the government. However, until a new cabinet is formed, the outgoing ministers have been instructed to continue their duties.

Speculations regarding significant changes in the economic and political spheres have been rife since the conclusion of the presidential election. President Aliyev's re-appointment of Ali Asadov to the position of Prime Minister, which was approved by the Milli Majlis on February 16, sheds light on the government's priorities for the upcoming term.

Ali Asadov outlined the government's agenda, emphasizing the paramount importance of safeguarding national borders and prioritizing social development initiatives. He reaffirmed the government's commitment to improving the welfare of the population and providing support to the families of martyrs and war invalids.

In response to President Aliyev's inauguration speech, Deputy Mazahir Efendiyev, in an interview with Turan,  highlighted the president's clear articulation of the country's objectives for the new term. President Aliyev underscored the imperative of economic growth, citing the significant increase in gross domestic product (GDP) from $7 billion in 2003 to $72 billion in 2023 as a testament to Azerbaijan's progress.

Efendiyev also noted President Aliyev's emphasis on social reforms, particularly the government's pledge to provide housing for the families of martyrs, signaling a continued commitment to addressing societal needs.

However, not all analysts share the optimism surrounding the government's reform agenda. Azer Gasimli, head of the Institute of Political Management, criticized President Aliyev's integration of authoritarian principles in foreign policy and the militaristic undertones of domestic policy. Gasimli cautioned that under Aliyev's leadership, human rights, democracy, and economic freedoms may face further constraints.

Political commentator Zardusht Alizadeh,  in an interview with Radio Azadlig, echoed these concerns, expressing skepticism about the prospects of meaningful reform under the current administration. Alizadeh highlighted the entrenched nature of the ruling elite and the absence of genuine political competition as impediments to reform efforts. He argued that the ruling class, insulated from political threats and benefiting from lucrative ties to the oil and gas industry, lacks the incentive to enact meaningful change.

As Azerbaijan enters a new presidential term, the discourse surrounding the government's reform agenda remains polarized. While proponents laud the administration's economic achievements and social welfare initiatives, critics warn of the erosion of democratic principles and the perpetuation of authoritarian rule. The trajectory of Azerbaijan's development hinges on the government's ability to navigate these competing narratives and address the pressing challenges facing the country.