Xi under the pressure of the pandemic and Putin

Last week the Western, and especially American press, publishes  articles that try to convince China's leader Xi Jinping of the precarious position. These are perhaps the first trial balloons thrown into the information space since Xi led the Communist Party and the state.

On November 15, 2012, at the plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping was elected the new General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Council of the Communist Party of China. After that, he was re-elected in 2017 and is now preparing for a third term as the leader of the country.

The reasons for Xi's shaken authority are the policy of introducing zero COVID in the heart of China's economic progress - Shanghai and the excessive bet on Russian President Vladimir Putin, weakened by the war in Ukraine.

A month ago, a second wave of the epidemic was recorded in Shanghai. The tough restrictive measures taken have hit business activity hard, sparking dissatisfaction with Xi's policies, which in recent years have been characterized by an economic downturn and tightened restrictions on civil liberties.

As for Russia, high-ranking circles are, to put it mildly, unhappy with Xi's choice as an international partner for Russian leader Putin, who has become mired in Ukraine with his troops, becoming an international pariah. China's unilateral support for Russia has upset the balance in the pursuit of Chinese interests and dramatically reduces China's influence on the world stage, Xi's opponents say.

In fact, in both cases, Xi does not look as bright as he looked before the pandemic and Ukrainian crises, not only in his own country, but also in the world, when many leaders wanted to enlist the friendship and favor of the Chinese leader, whom the Chinese Communist Party raised to a size comparable to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.

There are some speculations, citing anonymous sources in the highest echelons of power, that Xi may be removed from his posts at the 20th Party Congress this fall.

It is possible that Xi himself may give way to the position of head of state to another person who is more adequate to the challenges that arose in connection with the pandemic, the epoch-making confrontation between the West and Russia, tensions with the United States over Taiwan, and the desire of the post-Maoist generation for a free society.

This successor is called the current Prime Minister Li Keqiang. Experts note his increased popularity and activity since last year, when Xi was forced to cede to the premier the reins of economic power, which he had previously taken over in the face of an economic downturn, believing that he would better cope with the crisis challenges.

In general, they talk about the upcoming renewal in the leadership of China, the reduction of the role of the Communist Party in governing the country and the strengthening of the liberal course in the economy.

It would be excessive to assess the impact of the pandemic and Ukrainian factors on the situation in China and the position of Xi himself. The history of China from Mao to the present day demonstrates the commitment of Chinese society to the observance of continuity when changing the course of the country and its leaders. At the same time, a change of course can take place, but not as an alternative to the existing policy, but as its continuation with elements of modernization. At least, if it is not even so, then it will be presented that way.

In any case, some sort of compromise should be expected by autumn between Xi's supporters and those who advocate a return to collegiality in governing the country and the removal of restrictions on freedom of expression that were introduced during the years of Xi's rule. Balance in politics can become a priority line that will return relations with international partners to their former level, when China was able to become a significant part of the world economy and geopolitics.