Seeking a recipe for a split power

Last Monday, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo made an emergency visit to Kabul (Afghanistan), where there is a struggle between supporters of incumbent President Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah. Obviously, the unannounced visit of the secretary of state to reconcile the two leading political leaders of Afghanistan showed that the US special envoy for Afghan settlement Zalmay Khalilzad has lost influence on the situation. Both believe that they are winners of the presidential race last year; both declared themselves presidents and held inaugurations.

Ashraf Ghani held an inauguration on March 10 at the Arg presidential palace and fired Abdullah Abdullah from his post as prime minister with his first decree. In response, Abdullah Abdullah conducted his own inauguration at his residence in the palace of Sapedor (Kabul) and accused Ashraf Ghani of usurping power.

All this was preceded by unsuccessful negotiations between two politicians. Although under the constitution of Afghanistan, ministers are appointed by the parliament, Ashraf Ghani proposed -10 out of 25 ministerial portfolios to his rival (of course, leaving the portfolios of the power ministries behind him), but he refused. The end of the matter was that the delegation for negotiations with the Taliban was not formed by them.

In the future, it came to the point that both applicants actually declared a boycott to Khalilzad, who visited Kabul during the inaugurations held there. Obviously, such a development of events jeopardized the implementation of the peace agreement signed on February 29 in Qatar between the United States and the Taliban.

By the way, this agreement provides not only for the withdrawal of American troops, but also for the release of five thousand Taliban imprisoned by Ashraf Ghani, which is one of the preliminary steps for reconciliation. As the Afghan media write, with reference to sources close to the apparatus of the Security Council of Afghanistan, this topic was raised during the negotiations between the Secretary of State and Ashraf Ghani.

It is also worth noting that the withdrawal of American troops began despite the fact that intra-Afghan dialogue did not take place and clashes between government forces and the Taliban are received every day, since Ashraf Ghani refused to release five thousand prisoners-members of the Taliban.

Because of all this, the Americans suspended the withdrawal of troops, finding for this a formal excuse - the coronavirus pandemic.

“We are in a crisis. The fears are that if this crisis is not resolved quickly, this may affect the peace process,” Pompeo explained this hitch during a visit to Kabul. According to him, the spread of the disease made it difficult for the foreign contingent to move within the framework of a plan agreed between the US and the Taliban: some compounds are quarantined.

Back to the visit of the Secretary of State, closer to the evening of the same day, a tripartite meeting of Gani, Abdullah and Pompeo took place. The Afghan authorities did not report the contents of this conversation. However, the US Department of State issued a statement that shed light on the outcome of Pompeo's visit. The document said that “Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Prime Minister Abdullah informed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that they were unable to agree on an “inclusive government” that can solve the country's problems, as well as“ ensure the health and welfare of the Afghan citizens. "As noted in the document, this failure has damaged the relationship between the United States and Afghanistan.

Yet, despite the fact that so far it has not been possible to resolve the conflict between Ashraf Ghania and AbdulloAbdullah, one should not hastily assess the mission of Pompeo as inconclusive. The fact is that the crisis that erupted in Kabul is identical to the confrontation between Ghani and Abdullah in 2014. Then the differences were managed by John Kerry, who was the Secretary of State. True, it should be recognized that the current crisis is much deeper - the last time it was not about the formation of parallel structures of power, and relations between the United States and the Taliban were different. Today, the Taliban de facto control most of Afghanistan and clearly believe that they are a force, and therefore Kabul is an extra link in the negotiations between them and the United States.

Therefore, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah want to solve each issue of power in their own favor, but at the same time manage to make sure that the US peace concluded with the Taliban does not leave them behind Afghan politics.

The likelihood that both figures because of confrontation with each other can remain overboard is quite high - the Taliban will certainly try to take advantage of this. Note that Ashraf Ghani, who relies on the Pashtuns and Abdullah Abdullah, who relies on the Tajiks, is on the verge of armed conflict. True, they do not enjoy the special support of their relatives, but that, which is quite enough to unleash an armed conflict.

The political crisis provoked by the incumbent president in Afghanistan poses a direct threat to US national interests and its resolution is a very important task for the United States.

We have already written that China has challenged the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, with the goal of untying its hands to counter China, the United States is gradually withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and the Middle East. In principle, this became apparent with the advent of Trump to power. All politics, all the actions of US President Donald Trump, starting with the well-known “deal of the century” to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli problem, the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan were aimed at freeing their hands in the Middle East and focus on China. One should remember that Trump is going to use the peace process in Afghanistan in his election campaign. He needs this process to move forward.

Therefore, as indicated in the above statement by the US State Department, the US government has initiated a review of the scope of cooperation with Afghanistan. In particular, it announced the adjustment of expenditures in Afghanistan and an immediate reduction in aid by $ 1 billion this year, as well as its readiness to cut another $ 1 billion in financial support (ed.) by 2021.

A weighty argument for such a poor country as Afghanistan.