Tehran wants to "be calm" about the geopolitical steps of its northern neighbors

During this visit, Rouhani, both in the region and outside it, was closely watched. Even before Rouhani arrived in Ashgabat, various media claimed that there were a number of unresolved and even controversial issues between Iran and Turkmenistan, as well as Iran and Azerbaijan. Many had such a hope that Rouhani went on a regional tour to the northern neighbors in order to achieve their solution.

However, the results of the four-day visit showed that there was no "expected breakthrough", although the parties demonstrated maximum respect in their actions.

This is evidenced by the quality of the signed documents following the visit of the Iranian President. Thus, 20 documents were signed with the two countries. In Turkmenistan, out of 12 signed documents, each one was at the level of memoranda and protocols. In Azerbaijan, out of 8 documents, only one was of a commercial nature (about a $ 500 million loan to the Iranian side). At the same time, this did not provide for Iran's investment in the economy of Azerbaijan, but vice versa.

That is, while in the 90s and early 2000s Iran's economic and political influence "in life and in everyday life" was felt strongly among its northern neighbors, from the middle of the 21st century its gradual decline was observed. The new independent states of the Caspian region corrected their economic situation the more they distance themselves from Iran.

For example, the peak of trade turnover between Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran was recorded in 2007 - $ 541 million. In 2013 the index fell to $ 277 million, and in 2015 it was at the minimum level of $ 132 million. Only in 2017, it grew to $ 267 million, that is, it did not reach the four-year prescription.

The same is observed in Iran with almost all the Caspian countries: the trade turnover is much lower than one "five-year plan" ago.

It is noteworthy that Hassan Rouhani, both in Ashgabat and in Baku, at joint press conferences with Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov and Ilham Aliyev focused on issues of cooperation in the field of cargo transportation, as well as joint work in the Caspian. In Ashgabat, it was brought to the attention of the Iranian leader that the Turkmen railways were connected with two strings with the Iranian infrastructure. Starting in 2016, three freight trains were sent from China to Tehran via Turkmenistan. In addition, Berdimuhamedov noted that Turkmenistan is currently increasing the capacity of the Caspian port of Turkmenbashi, through which it is possible to develop messages by the Anzali trade and Neke oil loading in the north of Iran.

Apparently, the Iranian leader was not inclined to develop this topic in Ashgabat, as he knew what awaits him in Baku. For the construction of a railway section from the city of Rasht to the Azerbaijani border, Azerbaijan has submitted $ 500 million of a loan (although the Azerbaijani company will implement the project).

The theme of the Caspian Sea was also in the center of attention in Baku. Rouhani spoke much about this in his speech. He, as before, announced the benefits of cooperation in various fields of the Caspian projects, although he did not disclose anything in detail.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was also optimistic: "The signing of the document between the sides on the joint development of blocks in the Caspian Sea is a historic event and opens new opportunities."

According to him, Azerbaijan and Iran successfully cooperate in the energy sector and "the parties decided to develop a format of multilateral cooperation."

It is worth noting that the signed memorandum between the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Ministry of Oil of the Islamic Republic of Iran is so confusing that no official commented on it during the day. Although many people expected a breakthrough in Iran-Azerbaijan relations, it was in the joint work of the deepest Caspian block Araz-Alov-Sharg (depth of water 800-900 meters). In July 2001, under the pressure of Iranian warships, an Azerbaijani service vessel suspended geophysical research on this block (operator - BP). Later, Iran stated that it considers it fair to divide the bottom of the Caspian Sea not according to the sectoral principle, but equally - 20% to each side. As a result, foreign companies left the project, and the contract was canceled.

Neither in Baku, nor in Ashgabat the sides touched upon the legal status of the Caspian Sea, which has been discussed steadily for exactly 20 years. At the beginning of December 2017, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced the earliest signing of a convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea, and he believed this would happen in the next summit of the Caspian countries, which will be held in Astana. However, until now no one talks about this summit. Once the leaders of the three Caspian countries have also decided not to "speak out loud", it means that the thesis is confirmed: the status of the Caspian is not a legal issue, but a political one.

Another question that the parties decided not to advertise is the gas theme.

Turkmenistan and Iran since the beginning of 2017 have been discussing issues related to the accumulated arrears of the Iranian side (Ashgabat believes this debt is more than $ 1.8 billion) in payment for the previously supplied Turkmen natural gas. In December 2017, the Iranian side stated that it intends to apply to the international arbitration court to resolve the gas dispute. Official Ashgabat then supported Tehran's proposal to resolve the issue of arrears in the international arbitration court. However, apparently, the parties have so far taken a timeout.

As a result, in Ashgabat, the leaders of the two countries spoke at a joint press conference on deepening gas cooperation within swap operations. And they claimed that these volumes are growing every year.

Indeed, from the end of October 2016, Azerbaijan began importing Turkmen gas (only 296 mcm) through swap operations. And by the end of 2017, these volumes increased 5.7 times. However, the parties did not even mention this in Baku.

Summarizing the visit of Rouhani to the region, we can note the following:

- Official Tehran wants to "be calm" about the future geopolitical steps of its immediate northern neighbors;

- Iran made it clear that it has limited economic opportunities, but behind friendly countries Tehran is always ready to stand;

- Azerbaijan has already taken the first step, and will closely monitor the development of the event;

- It is unlikely that Iranian companies will participate in Azerbaijani oil and gas projects (neither advanced technology, nor free funds). SOCAR does not want to enter Iran's projects either - there are enough risks there;

- Turkmenistan is unlikely to develop economic relations with Iran, as the official Tehran would like. Ashgabat wants to have live money, not barter. This is suggested by his neighbor in the Caspian: more and more Turkmen oil and petroleum products are transported through Azerbaijan, more and more Baku acquires natural gas from Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijani companies have started to provide the Turkmen market with food;

- Azerbaijan has shown that it can turn into a regional economic center in conditions of low oil prices, without irritating others. --12А-