The mechanism of restraint of the Karabakh conflict will be formed in December

As it follows from the official after-word about the agenda of the talks, the co-chairs discussed with the foreign ministers the preparation of a joint meeting of the five-sided format on the sidelines of the OSCE Ministerial Council in December 2017 in Vienna.

It was noted that the agenda of this meeting will include the main issues of the political settlement, as well as specific measures to reduce tensions in the line of contact. Particular attention will be paid to the completion of the expansion of the staff of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office.

We can say that the first part of this announcement is of a formal nature, since the parties are not ready for substantive negotiations. This is indicated by the very format of the Moscow meetings - the successive consultations of the Minsk troika with the ministers Nalbandian and Mammadyarov; it shows that the ministers had nothing to talk about among themselves in the presence of intermediaries.

"We do not want negotiations for the sake of negotiations, we demand concrete results," Mammadyarov said before his visit to Moscow. This state of negotiations also follows from the nature of the meeting of Presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan October 16 in Geneva under the auspices of the OSCE, which Turan's analytical service described as "on duty".

After this meeting, it became clear that the parties could not advance a step in the issue of compromise approximation of the two norms of international law - the territorial integrity of states, on which Azerbaijan relies and the rights of nations to self-determination, which Armenia appeals.

"I want you all to be sure: for us there is no solution that can in any way violate the security of Karabakh. For us, the only solution is that Karabakh should be outside of Azerbaijan. Never any Armenian leader can take such a decision and implement, and for this we will do everything," Sargsyan said at a meeting with the diaspora immediately after the talks.

"Nagorno-Karabakh is an integral part of Azerbaijan and it will remain so, Sargsyan's plan will not be realized, either with him or with those who will come after him," said Novruz Mammadov, an assistant to President Aliyev on international issues, in response to the media.

Thus, the logical conclusion is that the main theme of the upcoming Vienna meeting will be the adoption of concrete measures to reduce tensions on the contact line and, first and foremost, the completion of the process of expansion of the activities and powers of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office.

Arrangements for the implementation of OSCE mechanisms to investigate incidents on the contact line and expand the authority of the regional office of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office were reached at a meeting of presidents under the auspices of the Minsk Group on May 16, 2016 in Vienna.

This initiative was reinforced a month later at a meeting of presidents mediated by Russian leader Putin in St. Petersburg on June 20. The very fact of reaching agreements has somewhat reduced tension in recent months on the line of fire, which is confirmed by military summaries of the defense ministries of Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, the mediators hope for a more lasting result by strengthening the OSCE observation mission in the region of occupied Karabakh.

At this stage, this seems to be the most topical issue in the light of the upcoming presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan in March and October 2018. During the election years, as experience shows, the negotiation process fades into the background, giving way to the pre-election belligerent rhetoric of candidates "No step back!", balancing on the brink of calls for a victorious war. The degree of the increased military potential of the parties no longer fits within the framework of the existing security system in the zone of contact between the opposing armies, which was demonstrated by the hostilities of April 2016 and the subsequent period. In this regard, the implementation of OSCE mechanisms to investigate incidents on the contact line and expand the authority of the regional office of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office remains a priority and will have to be finalized at the Vienna meeting on the sidelines of the OSCE Ministerial Council in December 2017.