Escalation of the arms race between Azerbaijan and Armenia

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Yerevan on Tuesday, May 26, is becoming more than a routine diplomatic trip. It is emerging as an important political signal for the entire South Caucasus. At a time when confrontation between Russia and the West over the future of the region is intensifying, Washington appears ready to openly support the government of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan despite growing irritation from the Kremlin.

On Sunday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made an important statement announcing that the railway connection between Turkey and Armenia had finally been opened. On his page on the social media platform X, he wrote: “I am pleased to announce that the Akhalkalaki–Kars railway, as well as the Azerbaijani railway, are now open for exports and imports to Armenia.”

As the date of the parliamentary elections in Armenia approaches, political confrontation is becoming increasingly intense, while the level of public tension between the opposition and the ruling authorities continues to rise.

Turkey and Armenia are preparing to launch direct trade after completing bureaucratic preparations, but prospects for the full opening of their shared border still depend on Azerbaijan’s position and the outcome of Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary elections.