"The World Has Changed"

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Threats to the global world order

“Speaking of new approaches, we see that the world has changed since we met last November at the Gulistan Palace. The changes are fundamental. It is still accompanied by unpredictable complications, but it is clear that the world will be different, and it is already different. Therefore, to develop new approaches, discussions, exchange of views, and sometimes contradictions of different opinions are necessary. Of course, each country must contribute to this process, primarily through security measures. Because security issues have become one of the main issues in the international arena, on the international agenda. At the same time, I am convinced that the current situation in Europe needs an open discussion," Aliyev said.

According to Aliyev, the main challenges for Europe will be the food crisis, and as a result, a new flow of migrants fleeing hunger: “I am sure that one of the issues on the agenda will be the role of international institutions, leading international institutions, leading financial institutions in the fight against the food crisis. Since this question is inevitable, it is already approaching us. International organizations and leading countries also need to cope with the potential increase in migrants. This will happen as a result of the food crisis.”

Aliyev calls achieving a balance of interests between energy producers and consumers another acute tactical issue: “This (lack of balance - ed.) creates inequality between producers and consumers, and also represents a risk for producers. If you think that oil and gas producing countries are very happy with such high prices, then this is a wrong assessment. A balance of interests between producers and consumers, a stable market - producers really need it."

A peace without preconditions

Regarding the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, Aliyev put forward its own concept, based on the slogan "Peace without preconditions." He noted that Azerbaijan, which suffered from the occupation of part of its territory for 30 years, after the end of the liberation war, immediately offered peace to Armenia and put forward five principles for the achievements of peace, which provide for mutual recognition of territorial integrity, non-interference in the affairs of each other, opening communications and resuscitation all integration links.

Aliyev once again made it clear that he was not going to discuss the status of the Armenian-populated territory of Karabakh. He substantiates this by the fact that the Minsk Group, which unsuccessfully supervised this issue for 28 years, actually ceased to exist, the territorial integrity of the country was restored, Azerbaijan is a unitary state and the state structure is not subject to restructuring.

If Armenia continues to lobby the issue of the status of the Armenian-populated territory of Karabakh, Aliyev threatened to put forward a counterclaim to Zangezur: “If Armenia questions the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan will have no choice but to question the territorial integrity of Armenia. From a historical point of view, we have a right to this. The history of the last century clearly shows that in November 1920, six months after the Sovietization of Azerbaijan, the Soviet government annexed the historical part of Azerbaijan Zangezur to Armenia. That is, if Armenia tries to demand the status of Armenians in Karabakh, then why don't the Azerbaijanis demand a status for themselves in Western Zangezur? The population of these regions was entirely Azerbaijani.”

However, he reiterated that the Armenians living in the country will be endowed with full rights like all citizens of Azerbaijan: “The rights and security of the entire population of Azerbaijan are guaranteed by the Constitution. Azerbaijan is a multinational country, and the Armenian population is not the largest national minority in Azerbaijan. That is, according to our Constitution, representatives of all nationalities, including Armenians, who have lived in Azerbaijan for many years, have equal rights. Yes, rights and security issues will be provided by us.”

Alternative Initiative: Three vs. Six and Five

To consolidate sustainable peace in the South Caucasus region, Aliyev proposed a compromise trilateral format of cooperation - Azerbaijan-Armenia-Georgia. It is intermediate between the initiative Platform Six (was put forward by Erdogan after the end of the second Karabakh war. It included six countries - the South Caucasian Azerbaijan-Armenia-Georgia and neighboring Iran-Turkey-Russia) and the format five (was put forward by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili , and included Azerbaijan-Armenia-Georgia and EU-US). The first format did not suit Armenia because of the presence of Turkey in it, and the second format did not suit Georgia because of the presence of Russia. But according to Aliyev, Armenia refused the proposed meeting of the foreign ministers of the South Caucasus countries: “Our position is clear, and the position of the Georgian government is clear that we must start dialogue and contacts. But, of course, without Armenia it will be impossible. In particular, given the current situation, it is necessary to discuss issues of regional importance - environmental protection, transboundary rivers that cause serious pollution in Azerbaijan, cooperation in the field of transport, new opportunities for transit."

One Hundred Years of Solitude

The statements of the President of Azerbaijan, which he described as products of a changing world, can be seen as a kind of transformation of his view of regional politics, when, in the conditions of the war in Ukraine, the geopolitical struggle for the South Caucasus receded into the background. In the conditions of this vacuum, new initiatives of Aliyev in the field of regional cooperation and security should be expected. The question is historical and could not find its solution over the past 100 years.